Apr-May Methanol Import Volume Expected to Climb
It is estimated that China’s monthly methanol import volume may rise to around 1,100kt in April and May. Besides the contracted shipments from certain country in the Middle East, the shipments from South America (Trinidad, Chile and certain country in South America) also increased notably.
For April, with more cargoes from certain country in the Middle East and South America arriving at ports, the methanol import volume is predicted to advance to 1,113.2kt, up 145.8kt or 15.07% from March.
Source: GACC; SCI
In terms of import origin, it was estimated that the volume of cargoes from certain country in the Middle East, Malaysia and certain country in South America climbed to 770kt, 56.4kt and 63kt respectively in April, while the volume of cargoes from Oman, Saudi Arabia and New Zealand dropped to 28kt, 40k and 95.8kt respectively. In April, the shipment from certain country in the Middle East increased. Meanwhile, the shipment from South America rose to 129.2kt, up 48kt or 59.09% from March. The supply in Europe and the U.S. got more saturated amid the stable operation of most units in these regions and more non-Iranian arbitrage cargoes from the Middle East, which forced South American cargoes to flow into other regions.
In terms of port of arrival, it was estimated that the volume of cargoes arriving in Jiangsu rose notably in April, and that of cargoes arriving in Zhejiang was basically from March. However, the volume of cargoes arriving in South China was predicted to drop to 85kt, down 30.75% from March. In Jiangsu, the inventory in Nanjing and Lianyungang built up gradually with more cargoes arriving at ports, especially from late to end-April. Meanwhile, the feedstock inventory at the four important MTO plants in East China ramped up. The reasons were as follows: 1. The delivery of contracted cargoes from certain country in the Middle East was steady. 2. Except the stable production of the MTO unit in Lianyungang, the left three MTO plants all cut loads. 3. The delivery of contracted cargoes from the inland market also kept stable. In addition, there were some imported cargoes arriving in inland areas in April.
For May, it is projected that China’s methanol import volume will edge down, while the methanol export volume may go up. As for import, there will still be some cargoes which are delayed to arrive in H1 May from late April. The shipment from South America and Southeast Asia will be relatively stable, but the volume of cargoes from certain country in the Middle East may decline, influenced by periodic logistics strain and the delay in the return to destination of some vessels. As for export, the volume of re-export or export cargoes may increase notably. With the spot prices and import prices dropping quickly in China, traders choose to reduce profit losses or gain profits through export or re-export. It is estimated that China’s methanol import volume will be 1,080-1,100kt in May, and the export volume will be 30-40kt. The overall consumption volume (downstream demand volume and export volume) may increase in May.
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