2022 China Butadiene Impots and Exports Subdued
Snapshot: In 2022, the import volume and export volume of butadiene in China both swung down. Especially, China’s butadiene import volume slipped to a 10-year low. With the self-sufficiency rate rising, China’s dependence on imported butadiene pared down somewhat. Accordingly, some Chinese-made butadiene resources were exported for arbitrage periodically amid ample supply. Despite a Y-O-Y drop, the export volume of butadiene also leveled up compared with that in the past few years.
In 2022, China’s butadiene import volume ratcheted down Y-O-Y.
From 2018 to 2022, the import volume of butadiene in China first edged down, then surged and finally dwindled. In 2020, China’s butadiene import volume notched a historical high at 455kt, mainly supplemented by deep-sea cargoes. Thereafter, with China’s butadiene capacity ramping up, the import dependence degree gradually trended down. In 2022, the import volume of butadiene in China hit a new low.
In 2022, China’s total butadiene import volume was 170kt, down 31.4% Y-O-Y. The import volume in Q4 was at a relatively high level, while those in other months were mostly under 10kt. On the one hand, China’s supply remained in an upswing, basically satisfying China’s demand from downstream users. On the other hand, the import price was higher than China’s spot price, due to unexpected unit shutdowns and operating rate cuts of crackers in China. Therefore, China’s import volume plunged without arbitrage opportunities. From September, China’s import price of butadiene trended down and was lower than China’s spot price. China’s import volume warmed up somewhat in Q4.
In 2022, China’s butadiene export volume cooled down Y-O-Y.
From 2018 to 2022, China’s butadiene export volume extended gains from previous years. Therein, the export volume of butadiene in 2021 hit a historical high, backed by the export arbitrage to the U.S. in line with the large demand gap there. 2022 also saw some Chinese-made butadiene resources for export, as Japan and South Korea faced a supply crunch of butadiene due to the low load of crackers on high crude oil prices. In 2022, China exported 86kt of butadiene, down 44.33% Y-O-Y. In 2022, China’s butadiene export volume headed down Y-O-Y, taking cues from foreign output losses less than last year and the release of new capacity short of expectation.
In a long period, China’s butadiene import volume will descend but the export volume will float up. However, players should pay close attention to the release time of new supply and demand, which will affect the imports and exports in phases.
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