Jul China PE Output Loss to Keep Rising
In June, the number of China’s PE units taking overhauls increased, and the output loss reached 384.8kt, up 38.7kt Y-O-Y. In July, China’s PE output loss caused by unit maintenance is estimated at 386.7kt, up 1.9kt from June, and the total output in July will continue to decline.
According to SCI, newly added unit maintenance was seen at PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical, PetroChina Daqing Petrochemical, Shenhua Xinjiang Energy, Shaanxi Yanchang Coal Yulin Energy and Chemical and Lianyungang Petrochemical. In previous years, the intensive unit maintenance started in April, while it started from May in 2023. Therefore, it’s estimated the intensive unit maintenance will continue in July. In July, China’s PE output loss caused by unit maintenance is estimated at 386.7kt, up 1.9kt from June. Therein, LLDPE, LDPE and HDPE will take up 102.2kt, 51.3kt and 233.2kt respectively.
In July, newly added unit maintenance will be seen at Yanan Energy & Chemical Group, PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical and a joint venture in Northeast China, so the output loss will continue to inch up in July. Prices of some grades may trend up due to unit maintenance, while substitutes of most grades are ample, which will give limited support to the PE market.
Market participants are suggested to pay attention to the following factors:
1. Unit maintenance at Shenhua Xinjiang Energy will end soon; PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical and PetroChina Daqing Petrochemical will continue the overhauls, which will exert certain impacts on Northwest China and Northeast China.
2. Yanan Energy & Chemical Group mainly produced HDPE film in June, and started overhauls in July, which will continue to mid-August. As it mainly produces pipe 23050, its overhauls may impact the supply of pipe materials.
3. With limited inflow resources, the unit maintenance at PetroChina Daqing Petrochemical, PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical and a joint venture in Northeast China will exert certain regional impacts on Northeast China.
All information provided by SCI is for reference only, which shall not be reproduced without permission.
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