Q1, 2023 China Propylene Export Saw Changes
China’s propylene export volume reached 4,958.97mt in March 2023, which increased dramatically M-O-M and Y-O-Y. According to GACC’s data, China’s propylene export volume rose notably, and more China’s domestic enterprises intended to export propylene resources. However, China’s propylene export was low and unstable, exerting limited impacts on the overall propylene supply-demand pattern. It is estimated that China’s propylene export will further increase in the long run.
China’s propylene annual export volume fluctuated dramatically.
China’s propylene export volume was negligible before 2021 and remained below 20kt. Against the backdrop of tight propylene supply, the propylene export attracted limited eyeballs. However, with the overall propylene supply became surplus, China’s propylene market competition became severe. Furthermore, with the propylene enterprise development, market participants pay more attention to the propylene export market and export arbitrage. China’s propylene export volume increased to 92.12kt in 2021, up 588% Y-O-Y, mainly supported by the relatively favorable export arbitrage. However, given the notable decline in propylene export arbitrage, China’s propylene export volume shrank to 38.8kt in 2022, down 58% Y-O-Y. Therefore, China’s propylene export was apparently unstable. Although China’s propylene increased dramatically in recent two years, the overall propylene export volume still took a quite low proportion in the total propylene consumption and exerted minor impacts on propylene market.
2018-2022 China Propylene Export Volume
China’s propylene export volume in Q1, 2023 increased Y-O-Y.
Although China’s propylene export volume is limited, it is predicted that China’s propylene export will further rise in the long term. From January to March 2023, China’s propylene export volume totaled 5.2kt, up 3.24% Y-O-Y.
In terms of the export trade partner, the volume of propylene imported from Taiwan of China in Q1, 2023 took up about 94% of the total. Moreover, about 100% of propylene resources were exported via Zhejiang, as there were many propylene producers and ports in Zhejiang.
As for the monthly propylene export volume, China’s propylene export volume totaled 4,958.97mt in March, taking up 96% of the total in Q1, 2023. Accordingly, there were uncertainties in China’s propylene export, exerting limited impacts on the overall propylene market.
With propylene oversupply, China’s propylene export is likely to increase.
Although there are uncertainties in propylene export, it is predicted that the overall propylene export volume will rally in the long run. China’s propylene capacity will probably continue to expand, especially the PDH capacity. Accordingly, China’s propylene market is likely to experience severer oversupply pressure, and China’s propylene market competition will probably intensify, exerting bullish impacts on China’s propylene export market.
China’s propylene producer scale continues to expand, and the enterprise competitiveness will probably improve. Moreover, China’s propylene producers may need to strengthen the export stability and achieve diversified development to further improve the market competitiveness.
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