Oct All-Steel Tire Exports Analysis
Snapshot: In October, China’s all-steel tire (HS code: 40112000, the same below) exports fell by 4.35% M-O-M, and increased by 11.30% Y-O-Y. The Y-O-Y growth narrowed by 13.5 percentage points from September. The overseas demand shrank, dragging down the overall export volume.
The all-steel tire exports slid M-O-M, and the Y-O-Y growth narrowed.
According to GACC, China’s exports of 40112000 in October continued to fall by 4.35% M-O-M but increased by 11.30% Y-O-Y. The Y-O-Y growth decreased by 13.5 percentage points. The M-O-M decline was mainly because the tire exports usually saw seasonal falls in October. Besides, the exports in September were at a high level, putting pressure on the further rise in October. The reasons why the exports rose Y-O-Y but the growth narrowed were as follows. First, although the export base in October 2022 was relatively low, it was still at a high level compared with the other months of 2022, curbing the Y-O-Y growth in October 2023. Second, the overseas demand shrank somewhat, dragging down the export demand. The exports in some regions dropped notably. Third, the growth of exports to countries along the Belt and Road and the kinetic effects of new export growth drove up the overall exports. Fourth, the change in the exchange rate also had some impact on the exports.
As there were differences in the structural demand, the exports were still resilient.
From the perspective of China’s tire export structure, the demand for China’s tires in South America, Europe, ASEAN and North America shrank in October M-O-M. Yet, the demand for China’s tires in Africa and the Middle East saw an M-O-M increase. Except that the exports to Europe slid by 4.86% Y-O-Y, the exports to other regions all increased Y-O-Y to different degrees. Therein, the Y-O-Y growth of exports to ASEAN reached around 37%, ranking first. That to the Middle East was around 27%, ranking second. That to North America was nearly 23%, ranking third.
The exports to Russia saw a seasonal decline, while those to Mexico and the Middle East still bolstered the overall exports.
Oct China 40112000 Exports by Trade Partner
As for trade partners, China’s tire exports to Mexico ranked first. In October, the tire exports to Mexico fell M-O-M but rose by 1.45% Y-O-Y. The main reason was that the automobile industry in Mexico saw rapid development. The automobile industry is the pillar industry of Mexico’s economy. Therein, the commercial vehicle production showed an uptrend. The gap between the tire supply and demand in Mexico led to large imports. Meanwhile, China’s exports of commercial vehicles to Mexico continued to increase notably, driving up the demand for China’s tires. The major increment in China’s tire exports came from the tire exports to the Middle East. China’s tire exports to Saudi Arabia rose by around 60%, and those to U.A.E. increased by nearly 38%. Yet, China’s tire exports to Europe saw a seasonal decline. Those to Russia decreased by over 20% M-O-M and Y-O-Y.
Overall, China’s tire exports in October were still at a high level compared with the same period in history. Yet, affected by the overseas demand falling, the exports decreased M-O-M, and the Y-O-Y growth narrowed. In the next two years, China’s tire exports may still face some pressure. Considering the effect of the low base in 2022, it is predicted that China’s tire exports may continue to rise Y-O-Y. Currently, the global economy is in the recovery stage with potential risks. Factors such as trade frictions may put pressure on the growth of tire exports. At the same time, China’s related trade policies are expected to continue to be effective, and the export structure may be optimized continuously, which may support the overall tire exports.
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