Oct PBR Imports & Exports Rise M-O-M, but Increment Limited
Snapshot: In October, China’s PBR import volume and export volume both rose M-O-M. The change in China’s PBR imports and exports in October and its reasons were analyzed as follows.
In October, China’s PBR imports continued to rise, mainly due to the increase in the imported resources from Russia.
According to GACC, China’s PBR import volume was 24,187.82mt in October 2023, up 5.34% M-O-M and up 8.17% Y-O-Y. From January to October, the total PBR import volume was around 206,435.82mt, up 34.95% Y-O-Y. From January to October, the operating rate at China’s tire enterprises mainly trended at highs steadily, but the overall gross profit of the PBR industry was relatively low. As cost failed to support the PBR market, the price of China’s PBR resources has remained lower than the historical monthly average price for nine consecutive months. Yet, the imported resources still had some price advantages. Particularly, the price of PBR resources imported from Russia was much lower than that from traditional channels. The PBR import volume in October remained rising, mainly because the PBR units in Russia finished maintenance and the PBR supply recovered. Therefore, the increment in October was mainly in the imports from Russia.
As seen from China’s PBR import trade partners, Russia and South Korea were still the top 2 in October. Therein, Russia ranked first. The import volume of PBR from Russia was around 11,963.52mt in October, down 14.9% Y-O-Y but up 52.45% M-O-M, which accounted for 49% of the total. South Korea ranked second. The import volume of PBR from South Korea was around 2,985.09mt, down 22.31% Y-O-Y and down 14.93% M-O-M, taking up 12% of the total. In October, China’s PBR market price trended down but was still higher than the import price. The price spread attracted imported resources to flow into China’s market. Downstream tire enterprises continued to use more low-priced imported resources. In addition, some overhauled Russia’s units were restarted, leading to a notable rise in the overall supply. Thus, China’s PBR import volume continued to recover.
In terms of the trade mode, the PBR imports via general trade ranked first in October. China’s PBR import via general trade was around 10,285.43mt, accounting for 42% of the total, up around 10 percentage points M-O-M.
As for the receipt place of imports, Shandong still ranked first in October, but the proportion declined. The import volume of PBR in Shandong was around 6,875.83mt in October, down 29.63% M-O-M and down 14.34% Y-O-Y. The import volume of PBR in Shanghai and Guangdong took up higher proportions of the total. Many tire enterprises are concentrated in Shandong, consuming plenty of imported PBR resources. In October, due to the tepid end demand, the overall operating rate at tire enterprises inched down. Thus, the imported resources flowing into Shandong also decreased M-O-M accordingly.
The PBR exports edged up in October.
According to GACC, China’s PBR export volume was 15,456.09mt in October 2023, up 2.42% M-O-M and up 25.13% Y-O-Y. The total export volume from January to October was around 145,676.30mt, up 19.56% Y-O-Y. The overseas demand ramped up steadily, and China’s PBR price began to slide. Thus, China’s PBR market competition intensified. PBR enterprises actively sought export opportunities to balance production and sales.
In November and December, the operating rate of the downstream tire industry is predicted to fall somewhat with the inventory piling up at downstream tire enterprises. Thus, the demand for feedstock PBR may slow down. Yet, China’s private units are expected to be shut down intensively, leading to a gap in low-priced resources. Therefore, China’s PBR imports are expected to mainly hover at highs in November and December, but the increment may be minor. As for exports, although some units may take maintenance, the overall supply of Chinese-made resources is likely to be ample affected by the decline in demand. Moreover, China’s PBR price is predicted to show a downtrend. China’s PBR export volume may mainly trend at highs in November and December.
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