China Methanol Import Volume to Remain High

SCI99

2019-12-05

China Methanol Import Volume to Remain High

China and Europe are the major export destinations for Brazilian pulp resources. In 2018, China purchased 42% of Brazil’s pulp export while Europe purchased 32%. As it is shown in Chart 2, the high inventory levels at these two regions did not limit Brazil’s total export volume. According to the Brazilian customs, from July to October, Brazil’s pulp export was 4.55 million mt, roughly the same with that in last year. Therein, 1.95 Although the important methanol units in Southeast Asia and other foreign areas are still under maintenance, the overall demand in Southeast Asia, Europe, the U.S., etc. remains weak. Therefore, the ideal sales area for some imported cargoes with variable target consumption markets is still China. SCI predicts that China’s monthly methanol import volume will still surpass 1,000kt from November to December. The annual import volume is estimated at 10,831.8kt in 2019, up 3,401.8kt or 45.78% Y-O-Y.

According to SCI’s statistics, the import volume in November was estimated at 1,017.6kt, down 10.29kt or 9.18% M-O-M. The export volume was estimated at about 3kt in November.

In terms of import origin, the import volume from New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, Brunei, Qatar and Venezuela increased to 239kt, 92.7kt, 30.8kt, 20.3kt and 33kt respectively. However, the import volume from Oman and Malaysia declined to 112.6kt and 30kt respectively. The import volume from Trinidad dropped sharply to 87kt, down 53.40% M-O-M. There was no cargo from Indonesia and Chile in November.

In terms of arrival ports, the volume of methanol arrived in South China increased to 190.3kt, up 43.41% M-O-M. A few cargoes were delivered from South China to Fangchenggang for arbitrage. The volume of arrivals dropped to 504.2kt in Jiangsu, down 20.61% M-O-M. Thereinto, the volume declined to 114kt at Lianyungang, down 52.8% M-O-M. The volume of methanol cargoes arrived in Zhejiang fell by 48.4kt to 303.2kt. In addition, there were still 10kt of imported cargoes arriving in Tianjin, and the volume of cargoes changed the discharge ports decreased to 28kt.

Forecast: For December, the arrival time of some imported cargoes will be delayed, as the strong sea wind from November 23 to November 16 resulted in navigation closure at some coastal areas. Given the weak markets in Europe, the U.S. and some Asian regions, the import volume from South America and Iran is predicted to increase, while that from Southeast Asia will decrease. SCI predicts that the methanol import volume could be 1,080-1,100kt in December, and the cargoes will arrive at ports intensively in H2 December.

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