Aug-Sep China Methanol Import Interpretation & Forecast
China’s methanol import volume in August was estimated at 1,292.5kt, up 42.1kt or 3.37% M-O-M. The volume didn’t reach the original expectation of 1,400kt, mainly influenced by tight storage tank capacity, frequent alteration of destination of imported cargoes, and unstable operation of some overseas units.
In terms of import origin, the import volume from a certain country in South America, Malaysia and a certain country in the Middle East was estimated at 67.5kt, 17.8kt and 730.3kt, up 289.27%, 52.13% and 2.71% M-O-M respectively. However, the import volume from a certain county in Europe, Saudi Arabia and New Zealand was predicted at 40kt, 65.7kt and 91.7kt, down 39.38%, 28.37% and 19.18% M-O-M respectively.
In terms of arrival area, the volume of imported methanol arriving in South China and Jiangsu was estimated at 195kt and 719.5kt, up 58.54% and 0.5% M-O-M respectively. However, the volume of imported methanol arriving in Zhejiang and Tianjin was 258kt and 120kt, down 15.41% and 11.11% M-O-M respectively. More cargoes were transferred from East China to South China due to the tight tank capacity in East China. In August, about 248kt of imported cargoes changed unloading ports, up 135kt or 119.47% M-O-M.
Although the 690kt/a MTO unit in Zhejiang remained under shutdown, the 800kt/a MTO unit in Jiangsu was restarted in the middle of August, consuming some imported cargoes. In August, about 60% of imported methanol flowed into the coastal MTO plants, up 2.2 percentage points M-O-M. Excluding the methanol inventory at downstream plants and arbitrage cargoes, the merchantable volume in East China decreased further, supporting the coastal methanol prices in August.
For September, the cargoes from the U.S. may increase, as the methanol prices in China have surpassed those in Europe and the U.S. Moreover, the cargoes from a certain country in the Middle East are also likely to rise. However, the tight tank capacity in coastal storage areas and the delayed arrival of cargoes from South America are still influencing the actual arrival of imports. The methanol import volume is predicted at 1,250-1,270kt in September, followed by a buildup in port inventory.
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