SBR Imports & Exports Trend Differently M-O-M and Y-O-Y in May
Snapshot: In May, China’s SBR import volume was 34kt, up 0.65% M-O-M but down 5.37% Y-O-Y. The export volume was 19.1kt, down 3.22% M-O-M but up 16.54% Y-O-Y. The total import volume from January to May was 153kt, down 1.74% Y-O-Y, while the total export volume was 83.7kt, up 16.95% Y-O-Y.
In May, the SBR import volume edged up M-O-M but slid Y-O-Y.
According to GACC, the SBR import volume was 34kt in May 2024, up 0.65% M-O-M but down 5.37% Y-O-Y. From January to May 2024, the SBR import volume was 153kt, down 1.74% Y-O-Y. As seen from China’s SBR output and demand volume, from January to May, China’s SBR output was 544.4kt, up 1.67% Y-O-Y, and China’s semi-steel tire output was 259.8359 million pieces, up 13.6% Y-O-Y. According to SCI’s data, the SBR supply in 2024 showed an uptrend, and the semi-steel tire output climbed Y-O-Y. The supply and the demand both ramped up theoretically. There were price advantages for the SBR resources imported from some trade partners, so traders showed some interest in participating in the market for arbitrage. There were stable SBR resources imported via processing trade with imported materials.
According to GACC, China’s top 5 trade partners for SBR imports in May were Russia, South Korea, Singapore, Germany, and Thailand. Russia ranked first. The import volume of SBR from Russia in May was 7.5kt, down 5.56% M-O-M and down 24.65% Y-O-Y. South Korea ranked second. The import volume of SBR from South Korea in May was 7.4kt, up 18.27% M-O-M but down 2.35% Y-O-Y. The import prices of SBR from Russia, South Korea, and Singapore were $1,509.09/mt, $2,334.57/mt, and $2,432.71/mt respectively. As seen from the trade mode in May, the volume of SBR imported via processing trade with imported materials accounted for 36.71% of the total. Those via general trade took up around 32.61%. Those via logistics goods in areas under special customs supervision accounted for around 30.58%. Processing trade with imported materials tended to choose customers with processing trade manuals, as their import volume was stable with relatively low import costs.
In May, the SBR export volume dropped M-O-M but ramped up Y-O-Y.
According to GACC, the SBR export volume in May 2024 was 19.1kt, down 3.22% M-O-M but up 16.54% Y-O-Y. From January to May 2024, the total SBR export volume was 83.7kt, up 16.95% Y-O-Y. In May, the reason for the slight M-O-M decline in China’s SBR export volume was as follows. Downstream tire enterprises in Southeast Asia had some rigid demand for feedstock SBR. However, considering the high SBR prices, they showed some resistance and registered lower interest in procurement. Overall, the SBR export volume was at still a high level in May.
Southeast Asia was still the major export destination.
According to GACC, China’s top 5 SBR export trade partners in May were Thailand, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, and Cambodia, with a total export volume of 15kt, which accounted for 79% of China’s total SBR export volume. Therein, Thailand ranked first. The operating rate at tire enterprises in Thailand was relatively high, and the price of China’s SBR was lower than that of the SBR from other trade partners. Thus, there was some rigid demand for SBR in Thailand. The mainstream export prices lingered at $1,600-1,700/mt.
Overall, most of China’s SBR units are expected to be under normal production in June and July 2024. Due to the high cost, some SBR units may continue to run at low loads. Yet, the SBR resources circulating in the market are expected to be stable. The operating rate of China’s tire industry is predicted to drop. Due to the high SBR price, the demand for feedstock SBR at tire enterprises is likely to shrink, and tire enterprises may continue to purchase SBR on rigid demand. Thus, the supply-demand fundamentals are expected to fail to drive up the SBR market effectively.
Imports: The operating rate of China’s downstream tire industry is expected to edge down in June and July 2024. Yet, there are expected to be some SBR resources imported via processing trade with imported materials, and players may be cautious about operating via general trade. Based on China’s SBR supply-demand status, the SBR import volume is expected to be around 32-34kt from June to July 2024.
Exports: The downstream tire industry in Southeast Asia will possibly have some rigid demand and may purchase SBR on rigid demand. It is projected that China’s SBR exports are likely to remain high from June to July 2024, lingering at 18kt-20kt.
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