2020 South China Refined Oil Import & Export Profit Review
In 2020, the international crude oil prices fluctuated dramatically. In Q1, 2020, OPEC members failed to reach an agreement on crude oil output reduction, and Saudi Arabia launched a crude oil price war, resulting in a sharp slump in international crude oil prices. In Q2, 2020, the global public health event kept aggravating, and the international crude oil prices once even became negative. In Q3, 2020, China’s economy continued reviving, and OPEC members finally reached an agreement on crude oil output reduction, supporting the international crude oil prices to fluctuate within a wide range. In Q4, 2020, with the improvement of international crude oil supply-demand fundamentals and the development of COVID-19 vaccine, the international crude oil prices gradually trended up.
Influenced by the international crude oil prices, the global refined oil prices also fluctuated dramatically, but the average prices of gasoline and diesel declined Y-O-Y. In 2020, the global annual average price of 92Ron gasoline was $45/bbl, down 35.6% Y-O-Y, while that of diesel was $49/bbl, down 36.87% Y-O-Y.
In China, in Q1, 2020, influenced by the Spring Festival holiday and the public health event, the prices of gasoline and diesel dropped significantly by over RMB 1,500/mt. From Q2, 2020, many enterprises restarted operation, but the tepid downstream demand and the high inventory at refineries still suppressed the prices of refined oil. From Q3, 2020, refineries started to focus on cutting their inventory, and the international crude oil prices showed a few signs of reviving from lows. Therefore, the prices of gasoline and diesel gradually trended up. On the whole, the annual average price of 92Ron gasoline at state-owned refineries in South China was RMB 5,651/mt, down 16.28% Y-O-Y, while the average price of 0# diesel was RMB 5,307/mt, down 17.72% Y-O-Y.
