Refined Oil Output-Consumption Gap to Keep Narrowing in 2021
According to SCI’s statistics, in Q1, 2021, China’s refined oil consumption increased rapidly Y-O-Y, and it’s estimated that the total consumption volume in 2021 will rise noticeably Y-O-Y. The diesel consumption volume will be lower than that in 2019, while the gap between the output and consumption of gasoline and diesel is likely to narrow in 2021.
Gasoline consumption will increase steadily supported by the large quantity of car parc.
In 2020, affected by the public health event, China’s automobile output and sales crashed by 80% Y-O-Y. However, China’s automobile industry started to recover in Q2 with the pandemic under control. From April, the automobile output and sales in each month increased Y-O-Y for consecutive nine months, and the uptrend continued in Q1, 2021. In 2020, China’s automobile output and sales volume was 25.225 million and 23.311 million respectively, and China’s vehicle parc reached 372 million (281 million were automobiles). The steady development of China’s automobile industry will lay a solid foundation for the increase in the gasoline consumption.
According to SCI, China’s gasoline consumption volume in 2020 reached 147 million mt, down 6.8% Y-O-Y caused by the less travels and delayed production resumption in Q1.
In 2021, with the decreasing impacts of the public health event, China’s automobile industry continued the rapid development. China’s automobile output recovered to 2.4 million in March after the short slack season in February.
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