Q1-Q3 2024: China BD Exports See YoY Uptrend
Introduction: From 2020 to 2024, the export volume of butadiene in China ramped up notably. After hitting a new high in 2021, the butadiene export volume surged again in 2024, mainly affected by supply cuts of deep-sea cargoes and off-shore resources. At present, China mainly exports butadiene resources to surrounding countries and regions. The upsurge in exports greatly pushes up China’s butadiene in 2024.
In the past five years, China’s butadiene exports trended up notably, especially in 2021 when the export volume hit a historical high at around 154kt. In 2021, as there was a large supply gap in the U.S., some Chinese-made butadiene resources were exported for arbitrage. In 2024, deep-sea cargoes flowing to Asia declined. Besides, in H1 2024, butadiene units in Southeast Asia ran unsteadily. Therefore, China’s butadiene exports picked up somewhat. From Q1 to Q3 2024, the total export volume of butadiene in China stood at around 120.8kt, up 111% YoY.
As seen from the export price, in the past five years, the average export price of butadiene first fell and then rallied. In 2023, the demand for spot butadiene was relatively limited in South Korea. Competing with deep-sea cargoes, the export price crashed to a five-year low. In 2024, due to supply cuts of resources from Europe, the U.S. and Southeast Asia, the export price of butadiene soared to a high level. As of September 2024, the average export price of butadiene reached $1,391/mt, up 35% MoM, underpinning China’s domestic market notably. Especially in H1 2024, high export volume gave a boost to the butadiene market price in China. In Q4 2024, the export volume of butadiene is expected to slide. Downstream enterprises in South Korea may take maintenance of their units, dragging down the demand for butadiene. Yet, in the whole of 2024, the export volume may remain in an uptrend.
From Q1 to Q3 2024, in terms of trading partners, China mainly exported butadiene to South Korea and China’s Taiwan. Therein, the export volume to South Korea accounted for 74% of the total, up 19 percentage points YoY. In 2024, due to the low proportion of downstream contract resources, the spot demand for butadiene in South Korea moved up. Besides, deep-sea cargoes and Southeast Asian resources replenished the Northeast Asia market limitedly. Thus, Chinese-made butadiene resources were exported for arbitrage. At present, China mainly exports butadiene resources to surrounding countries and regions. The trade on deep-sea cargoes is not mature, and there has been no obvious adjustment in the past five years. From a global perspective, Northeast Asia, especially South Korea and China’s Taiwan, has certain supply gaps, which provide some conditions for domestic butadiene resource exports. Most of the supply channels are relatively stable, and it is hard for China’s butadiene to flow into other regions.
From Q1 to Q3 2024, as seen from the enterprise registration place, the export volume of butadiene from Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu took up 94% of the total. The decline in exports from Guangdong was mainly due to the adjustment of the internal import and export management policies of some enterprises. The export proportion of other provinces has changed slightly. At present, China’s butadiene exports are mainly concentrated in individual producers and traders. These butadiene enterprises are concentrated, and most of them are close to coastal regions, with superior geographical location, which is also convenient for China’s exports.
In 2025, China’s butadiene supply may tend to be sufficient, and the export volume is expected to warm up. Yet, whether the export can climb constantly still needs to pay attention to the annual contract signing status of downstream enterprises in the main destination countries, as well as the replenishment of deep-sea cargoes in the later period. Against limited new butadiene capacity in overseas countries, China’s butadiene exports may still enjoy certain advantages.
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