2022 Q1 Methanol Import & Export Volume to See Y-O-Y Decline
Influenced by the delay in arrival of imports, the unfinished negotiation on the long-term contracts of cargoes from certain area in the Middle East, global regional cargo exchanges, etc., it is predicted that China’s methanol import volume can hardly increase in Q1, and the monthly average import volume may remain under 900kt.
Source: GACC; SCI
The methanol import volume is estimated at 867.2kt in February, up 34.1kt or 4.09% M-O-M. In terms of import origins, the volume of cargoes from certain area in the Middle East is estimated at 576.3kt, up 27kt or 4.92% M-O-M. The import volume from New Zealand, Chile and Brunei is predicted to increase to 150.5kt, 30.7kt and 24kt respectively. However, the import volume from Saudi Arabia and Trinidad is predicted to decline to 43.8kt and 8kt, down 44.42% and 74.19% M-O-M respectively. The volume from Malaysia and certain area in South America is estimated to decrease to 9.4kt and 24.5kt respectively.
In terms of port region, the volume of cargoes arriving in Jiangsu and South China rose by 20.16% and 99.88% M-O-M respectively, while that of cargoes arriving in Zhejiang dropped by 22.27% M-O-M. In February, the volume of imported cargoes flowing into most important downstream plants declined, as many traders and downstream plants replaced high-priced imported cargoes by Chinese-made methanol, given the relatively low delivered prices of inland cargoes. The volume of cargoes changing unloading ports fell to 76.5kt, down 68.84% M-O-M.
It is predicted that China’s methanol import volume will be 800-820kt in March. There will still be no obvious increment in the volume of imported cargoes in March, influenced by many factors, such as the delay in the shipment of some imported cargoes, the exchanges of goods in Asia, the clear price spread between China and other Asian regions, the unexpected unit shutdown in South America as well as the scheduled unit maintenance in the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Europe. But the supply gap of imported cargoes will still be supplemented by Chinese-made resources gradually. It needs to pay attention to the logistics of inland cargoes. Overall, the volume of cargoes from certain area in the Middle East is relatively stable, while that of cargoes from other regions has declined gradually. It is predicted that the monthly import volume is estimated at 840-860kt in Q1, 2022, down 38.3kt from Q1, 2021.
As for export, the export volume in February is estimated at 8.5kt, with most resources flowing into Indonesia. The monthly average export volume in Q1 is predicted to decrease by 26.3kt or 73.46% from Q1, 2021. Although there is a clear price spread between China and other Asian regions, the monthly average export volume may decline due to many factors such as freight, continuous tight supply of bonded goods, severe port congestion, etc.
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