NBR Market Price Showed a Downward Trend
Market Price
2. Market Review
This month, the NBR market price showed a downward trend. Some NBR units in East China were under maintenance, but as the 35kt/a new unit at PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical was put into production, goods produced by this unit was released gradually, so the spot supply of NBR was sufficient. Besides, it was hard to make a difference in the downstream demand, so the NBR market was dragged down by fundamentals. Taking 3305E produced by PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical as an example, the reference offer was about RMB 18,500-18,800/mt (self-delivery, including tax), down 12.85% from the closing price last month. The average price from June 1 to June 28 was RMB 19,726/mt, down 12.07% from the average price last month, and the decline was enlarged by 3.92% compared with that in May.
3. Market Forecast
Supply: There is no maintenance plan for China’s domestic NBR units. NBR units are expected to maintain stable operation, and the supply of Chinese-made goods is estimated to be sufficient. The supply side is expected to exert a bearish effect on the NBR market.
Demand: It is expected that the downstream demand will recover slowly. Downstream producers may purchase feedstock based on rigid demand and mainly consume feedstock inventory. Besides, as the NBR market price is decreasing, the mentality of not buying down is intensified, and market players adopt a cautious stance.
The acrylonitrile price may fluctuate slightly, but the butadiene price may decrease. Overall, the cost side is expected to exert a bearish effect on the NBR market.
From July to September 2022, the NBR market will fluctuate downwards and then trend sideways. The oversupply may hardly improve.
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