China MTBE Prices to See Frequent Fluctuations
Recently, China’s MTBE export deal activity has notably increased compared to previous periods. In contrast to the favorable performance in the export market, China’s MTBE demand remained sluggish.
Recently, more foreign traders stocked up for the upcoming gasoline consumption peak season in summer, and many foreign MTBE units were shut down for maintenance. Accordingly, the MTBE export negotiation improved notably, and the dealing prices rose somewhat and hovered at $738-740/mt. According to SCI’s data, it is estimated that China’s MTBE export delivery volume may be 200kt, 260kt and 60kt (temporarily) in February, March and April respectively.
Meanwhile, China’s MTBE demand remained sluggish. The demand for gasoline became normal after the Spring Festival holiday, weighing on the demand for MTBE. Unit operating rates at state-owned refineries remained high, so the demand for MTBE was relatively stable. However, unit operating rates at independent refineries largely hovered at lows, and oil blenders adopted cautious attitudes to the procurement for gasoline feedstock, giving thin support to MTBE price increments.
In terms of the MTBE supply, it is estimated that China’s MTBE output may rise. Recently, some MTBE producers in Shandong raised production, and the daily MTBE commercial volume in Shandong increased to 10,920mt. Besides, the newly added 500kt/a iso-butane dehydrogenation unit at Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical may be put into use at the end of February 2025. Some overhauled MTBE units may be restarted in succession, so it is estimated that China’s MTBE supply may further increase.
Overall, the favorable export market may give support to China’s MTBE market, but the normal demand and supply increment may weigh on the MTBE market. Accordingly, it is estimated that China’s MTBE prices may fluctuate upward with slight increments.
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