Apr-May Methanol Import Volume Interpretation and Forecast
In H2 March, many methanol units in a certain country in the Middle East resumed production successively, increasing the shipments to China accordingly. Additionally, the arrival volume of non-Iranian cargoes also mounted. Therefore, it is predicted that China’s methanol import volume in April may rise to 963.2kt, up 490.2kt or 103.64% MoM. However, with the import cost declining gradually, more imported cargoes have flowed back into downstream plants, reducing the arrival volume at public storage tank farms. Overall, the spot price in the coastal methanol market may be stable-to-rising in the near term.
In April, more imported cargoes flowed into downstream plants, especially in the Zhejiang market. Consequently, the cargoes delivered to the public storage tank farms in East China decreased. With the arbitrage window between coastal and inland markets opened, more resources from Jiangsu backed flowed into the inland market in H2 April, so the methanol inventory in Jiangsu dropped constantly to a low level.
In April, the imports increased from both a certain country in the Middle East and non-Iranian countries. The arrival volume of cargoes from a certain country in the Middle East was estimated at 504kt, up 209 or 70.85% MoM. The arrival volume of cargoes from Trinidad was projected to surge by 52.7kt or 189.56% MoM to 80.5kt, and that of cargoes from a certain country in South America was predicted to rise by 42.5kt or 87.62% MoM to 91kt. The arrival volume of cargoes from Malaysia was estimated at 30.3kt, up 136.48% MoM.
As for the arrival area, the arrival volume in Jiangsu was predicted at 447.7kt in April, up 285.2kt or 175.50% MoM. The arrival volume in Zhejiang was projected to increase by 126.5kt or 42.30% to 425.5kt.
Currently, all the methanol units in a certain country in the Middle East are running steadily, and the shipment volume from this country in April has advanced to around 600kt. Although the volume of cargoes from some non-Iranian plants may decrease in May due to the lower prices in China, the increase in cargoes from a certain country in the Middle East will offset this reduction. Overall, it is predicted that China’s methanol import volume in May may reach 1,060-1,080kt.
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