May-Jun Methanol Import Volume Interpretation and Forecast
With most methanol units in a certain country in the Middle East resuming normal operation, the volume of cargo from this country to China increased notably in May, offsetting the reduction in the volume of non-Iranian cargo. It is predicted that China’s methanol import volume may rise to 1,081.7kt in May, up 294kt or 37.32% MoM.
In terms of import origin, the volume of cargo from a certain country in the Middle East is predicted to mount by 61.31% to 813kt in May. The volume of cargo from a certain country in Europe is estimated at 62kt, up 85% MoM. In addition, the volume of cargo from Malaysia is projected to rise by 62.68% to 90kt. However, the volume of cargo from South America (Trinidad, Chile and a certain country in South America) is predicted to decrease by 122.9kt to 68.5kt. Low CFR China prices are still influencing the actual arrival volume of non-Iranian cargo.
In terms of arrival area, the arrival volume of imported methanol increased in Jiangsu, South China and Tianjin in May, while that decreased in Zhejiang and Jiangsu. In view of USD prices lowering than RMB prices of imported methanol, the activity of domestic key downstream plants and traders in purchasing USD-denominated cargoes was improved. Most of the imported cargo flowed towards downstream plants, and the arrival volume in Tianjin, Lianyungang and Nanjing was stable-to-rising. Correspondingly, the volume of cargo arriving at public storage tank farms declined, so it was hard for the inventory in coastal public tank farms to accumulate significantly this month.
In May, the unloading ports for 124kt of imported cargo were changed. The reasons include destinations changing from downstream plants to public tank farms, exchange of cargo between downstream plants and exchange of cargo between public tank farms.
Apart from port congestions affecting the unloading of imported cargo, the frequent port changes in May have also greatly prolonged the actual unloading time of imported cargo. Some imported cargoes originally supposed to arrive at the end of May have been delayed again to early June. Due to the delayed shipping schedules of some non-Iranian cargoes and the relatively low prices in Europe, cargoes from the Middle East and South America have back flowed to China once again. In addition, the loading volume of cargo from a certain country in the Middle East reached about 800kt in May. Therefore, it is estimated that China’s methanol import volume in June may register at 1,250-1,260kt.
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