China PE Imports to Drop by 10.98% YoY in Q3 2025
Introduction: China’s PE import volume totaled 5,965kt from January to May 2025, marking a 7.85% YoY increase. On May 12, a Joint Statement on U.S.-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Geneva was released, temporarily suspending tariff escalations. However, on June 13, escalating tensions between Iran and Israel sparked market concerns over supply disruptions from Iran and the broader Middle East. While shipping capacity through the Strait of Hormuz remains stable, cautious sentiment persists, suppressing procurement enthusiasm. Against this backdrop of U.S.-China tariff uncertainties and Middle Eastern geopolitical risks, China’s PE import volume is projected to decline by 10.98% YoY in Q3 2025.
Q3 2025 China PE Capacity Expansion Schedule
In Q3 2025, 1,600kt/a of new capacity is expected to be put into operation in China, comprising 850kt/a of HDPE capacity, 500kt/a of LDPE, and 250kt/aof LLDPE.
The suspension of tariff escalations may facilitate inflows of low-cost U.S. cargoes, posing pressure on China’s domestic market. Nevertheless, the Iran-Israel conflict in June has heightened concerns over supply reliability from Iran and the Middle East, weakening buying sentiment. Consequently, the import volume in July and August may dip. In China’s domestic market, the PO demand is set to climb in Q3, with procurement of low-priced feedstock expected to improve moderately. By September, seasonal peak demand for agricultural film, coupled with order support from back-to-school sales and e-commerce shopping festivals, is likely to further bolster demand.
Given shipping lead times, cargo arriving at China’s ports in August and September will reflect market dynamics in June and July. According to SCI data, USD offers for PE in China bottomed out and rebounded in mid-June due to Middle East tensions, but end-user demand remained sluggish. Downstream producers showed limited restocking interest, while persistently high feedstock costs constrained transaction volume of high-priced cargoes, which barely supported the PE market price. Concerns over supply disruptions from Iran and the broader Middle East further dampened overall buying sentiment. By late June, Middle Eastern LLDPE offers stood at $850-860/mt (RMB 7,500-7,600/mt), narrowing import arbitrage opportunities. With China’s domestic traders adopting a cautious stance, the PE import volume is estimated to inch down in August.
In summary, China’s PE industry remains in a phase of rapid capacity expansion, with multiple refining-chemical integration units, including those at ExxonMobil and Yulong Petrochemical, scheduled to be put into operation in 2025. This will significantly boost domestic PE supply, meeting some local demand. Compounded by escalating geopolitical volatility in the Middle East, China’s PE import volume is projected to contract by 10.98% YoY in Q3 2025.
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