China Propylene Import to Shrink
In the recent five years, China’s propylene import volume increased at first and then went down. Therein, China’s propylene import volume saw minor decline from 2020 to 2022. China’s domestic propylene supply increased rapidly, dragging down China’s propylene import. From January to February 2023, China’s propylene import volume rose by 30.49% Y-O-Y. China’s propylene supply remained tight in 2023, as the operating rate of the propylene industry declined notably. Accordingly, China’s propylene import volume rallied dramatically from January to February 2023. With the operating rate of the propylene industry gradually recovering and the new capacity release, it is estimated that China’s propylene import volume will return to the normal level, and SCI reckons that China’s propylene import volume may continue to shrink in the long run.
China’s propylene annual import volume rose at first and then was curtailed, and China’s propylene import dependence degree was not high.
China’s propylene import volume mounted up gradually and reached a historical high of 3,127.2kt in 2019 but dropped year by year from 2020 to 2022. In 2022, China’s propylene import volume totaled 2,337.2kt, down 25.26% from 2019. With China’s domestic propylene supply rising rapidly, China’s propylene supply became surplus, weighing on the import market. China’s propylene import dependence degree reached the highest level of 14.92% in 2013 but kept dipping after 2013. As of 2022, China’s propylene import dependence degree was 4.83%, hitting a 10-year new low.
2009-2022 China Propylene Import Volume and Import Dependence Degree
China’s propylene import volume from January to February 2023 increased notably Y-O-Y.
From January to February 2023, China’s propylene import volume totaled 485.9kt, up 30.49%. Therein, China’s propylene import volume in February 2023 saw a Y-O-Y increment of 58.61%.
As for import trade partner, China mainly imported propylene from South Korea, Japan and Taiwan of China, and the volume of propylene imported from the above three trade partners took up 86.42% of the total. From January to February 2023, the volume of propylene imported from South Korea rose by 56.06% Y-O-Y, and that from Japan and Taiwan of China dropped by 22.19% and 20.53% Y-O-Y respectively. Moreover, the volume of propylene imported from the U.A.E., Malaysia, Saudi Arabia and Russia rose dramatically Y-O-Y. Accordingly, China’s propylene import trade partner increased, and China’s propylene import sources became diversified accordingly.
In terms of the receiving and dispatching place, the volume of propylene imported via provinces and cities in East China occupied 74.53% and increased by 2.61%-55.36% Y-O-Y. Meanwhile, the volume of propylene imported via Tianjin and Shandong took up 7%-10% of the total, and the import volume Y-O-Y increments reached 157.69%-860.43%. Propylene import volume of other regions was relatively low. However, the volume of propylene imported via Guangxi, Hainan and Inner Mongolia rose notably Y-O-Y, propping up the overall propylene import volume.
2021-2023 Propylene Import Volume and Import Price
Both propylene industry operating rate and new capacity release propped up China’s propylene import volume.
China’s propylene industry experienced profit losses in 2023, so more propylene units took overhauls, dragging down the operating rate of the propylene industry. According to SCI’s data, the operating rate of the propylene industry declined to about 70%, hitting a 5-year low, and operating rates of PDH units decreased below 60% due to the relatively intensive unit maintenance. With China’s propylene supply decline, China’s propylene import went up. There are many PDH units in East China, Tianjin and Shandong. Given the decline in PDH unit operating rates, propylene import volume of the above regions rallied notably.
There were new propylene units in Guangxi, Hainan, etc. coming on stream, so producers needed to prepare in advance, supporting China’s propylene import.
2022-2023 China Propylene Industry Operating Rate
China’s propylene supply is likely to become surplus, so it is estimated that China’s propylene import volume will go down in the long term.
China’s propylene capacity will probably continue to expand. Therein, PDH capacity may further rise in the future, so China’s propylene market is likely to experience severer oversupply pressure, weighing on China’s propylene import market. Accordingly, the competition between China’s domestic propylene resources and imported propylene resources will probably intensify.
According to China’s propylene import volume change from 2020 to 2022, the Y-O-Y decline in 2020 was relatively high, and that in 2021 and 2022 was limited. Although China’s propylene import volume will probably drop, the overall decline may be rational. In the future, downstream users may flexibly purchase China-origin and imported resources, so suppliers may experience severer sales pressure.
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