Uncoated Woodfree Paper Price Suppressed by Tender Delays
Introduction: Publishing and printing constitute the primary downstream demand for uncoated woodfree paper. Generally, the price of uncoated woodfree paper fluctuates with the seasonal cycles of publishing tenders. However, in recent years, influenced by multiple factors, the timing of publishing tenders has been delayed compared to previous years, weakening the support for uncoated woodfree paper prices. Considering publishers' attempts to press down tender prices, coupled with the impact of futures listing on market sentiment, delays are still expected for the next round of publishing tenders. From September to November, uncoated woodfree paper prices are expected to decline first and then rise.
Delays in Publishing Tenders affected by multiple factors
Publishing tenders are influenced by various factors, with the delays in recent years primarily attributable to the following aspects:
Policy-wise, recent policies such as the "Double Reduction" restricts the demand for supplementary printed education materials, affecting the content, quantity, types, and usage methods of textbooks and supplementary materials. With the implementation of these new policies, publishers need to revise and re-review printed content according to the new requirements and hence became more cautious during the tender processes.
Market-wise, the continuous expansion of uncoated woodfree paper capacity has intensified competition, resulting in low tender prices in some regions and reinforcing publishers' wait-and-see attitude. Additionally, under the persistent impact of digitalization, schools and book readers’ preference are shifting toward e-books and online databases. The publishing industry is also undergoing digital transformation, with some resources diverted to digital publishing, weakening demand expectations for paper-based publications and causing delays in publishing tender.
Cost-wise, against the backdrop of a relatively slow economic recovery, publishers is paying more attention to cost management and tend to wait for better prices. This wait-and-see sentiment is particularly evident from March to May and September to October. Moreover, with the upgrading of printing equipment and technology among downstream printing plants, the production cycle for textbooks and supplementary materials has shortened, providing greater flexibility for the tender process. Overall, the delay in tendering is an adaptive response to the restructuring of multiple factors including policy, market, and technology.
Looking at the tender progress in H1 of 2025, most tenders were concentrated from mid-to-late April to early June, with only a few publishers following the traditional schedule in March. Overall, publishing tenders were delayed by 15-30 days compared to previous years as publishers attempted to find a balance between policy compliance and cost efficiency.
Tender Time Summary of Publishers in H2 2025
Source: public information compiled by SCI
Paper Prices May Remain Bearish Under Demand Distortion
The delay in publishing tenders has caused a backward shift in paper procurement and flattened the seasonal pattern in the market. As a result, the paper price lacked upward momentum, and tender prices which were RMB 100-200/mt below the market level were seen from March to May with intensified wait-and-see sentiment. Demand support continued to soften after the tender season, leading to further declines in paper prices.
As of August 19, the tax-inclusive average price for 70g high-whiteness uncoated woodfree paper was RMB 4,950/mt, down 8.55% YoY and 8.12% from the beginning of the year. The average price for 70g off-white uncoated woodfree paper was RMB 4,576/mt, down 8.90% from the beginning of the year. On the other hand, due to delayed tenders, the seasonal characteristics of uncoated woodfree paper prices have weakened. From February to March, paper mills actively raised prices, but without demand-side support, the increases were poorly implemented.
Tender Delays Expected in H2 2025, postponing demand support for paper prices
Tenders for textbooks and supplementary materials for the following spring semester usually begin from September to November. Based on current market feedback, the impact of policy adjustments on publishers' tender processes persists. With the ongoing implementation of policies such as the "Double Reduction" and new curriculum standards, publishers are expected to be more cautious in their tender arrangements. Additionally, the Shanghai Futures Exchange recently announced that the offset printing paper futures will begin trading on September 10. Futures price fluctuations may increase short-term market uncertainty, leading to more cautious operations by market players. Later, publishers may consider observing futures price trends as one reference for spot prices, potentially leading to further delays in publishing tenders in H2 of the year. Support for uncoated woodfree paper prices from rigid demand will be delayed, and the market is expected to continue declining in September. Prices may enter an upward phase in October and November, but given the limited expected improvement in market orders within the year, the price hike is projected to be in the range of 50-150 RMB/mt.
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