China PVC Powder Export Volume Increased in May 2023
Preface: China’s PVC export volume saw an M-O-M increment in May but dropped notably Y-O-Y. On one hand, as China’s PVC powder market price dipped to a low level, foreign buyers showed higher interest in purchasing temporarily. On the other hand, PVC export volume from the U.S. declined. SCI reckons that PVC export volume will stay stable in June and July.
PVC export volume saw an M-O-M increment in May.
According to GACC, PVC powder exports reached 140.3kt in May 2023, up 3.97% M-O-M, but down 47.25% Y-O-Y. The cumulative export volume from January to May was 928.3kt, 8.88% lower than the same period last year, and the accumulated growth rate turned from growth to decline.
PVC export volume in January and February was at a relatively high level, mainly because Foreign buyers stockpiled as China’s PVC powder prices rebounded stimulated by positive expectations in the macro market in December 2022. However, after Spring Festival, fundamentals were the main factors affecting the PVC price, so PVC prices fell, and foreign buyers’ procurement enthusiasm weakened. PVC export volume moved down in March and April but stopped falling in May.
From the perspective of export trading partners, export destinations in May were mainly concentrated in South Asia, Africa, Central Asia and Southeast Asia. The top five exporters were India, Thailand, Vietnam, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, whose export volume was 86.3kt, accounting for 61.53% of the total exports.
China’s PVC export volume changed narrowly in May. First, China’s export volume was maintained at a certain level affected by weak domestic demand. Second, as the U.S. cut PVC supply, India increased its imports of PVC from China.
China’s PVC prices ran at lows and market transactions were tepid.
After reaching a relatively high in January 2023, China’s PVC powder price fluctuated downward from February to June. There was pressure that came from the fundamentals and macro market. Though a couple of PVC producers shut down units or cut operating rates amid profit losses, the newly added 1,700kt/a capacity in H1, 2023 made up for the reduced capacity. PVC inventory remained high as the real estate industry was in the doldrums. In addition, China’s economic recovery failed to meet expectations. The real estate industry underperformed, weighing on market participants’ sentiments.
PVC exports in the U.S. dropped slightly amid declined supply.
PVC prices in the U.S. also saw a downward trend caused by soft demand. From January to March, the U.S. exported 916kt, 83.57% higher than the same period last year. But PVC exports in the U.S. fell in April amid declined supply.
Procurement enthusiasm in the foreign market improved temporarily.
The Indian market showed weaker interest in purchasing especially from China after bulk purchasing in January 2023. The purchasing enthusiasm of the Indian market was mainly affected by the weak market of China and the U.S. From end-May to mid-June, China PVC enterprises received slightly increased export orders from India. First, some PVC enterprises in India shut down units for maintenance, dragging down the supply. Second, China’s PVC prices dropped to a low level.
PVC export volume may remain change narrowly in June and July.
From end-May to mid-June, China’s PVC export orders improved, and export prices inched up. Up to end-June, the export price of calcium carbide-based PVC was $720/mt FOB Tianjin, up $ 15/mt from early June. After the slight increment in PVC export prices, export orders failed to last. Several ethylene-based PVC enterprises received fairish export orders, while export orders at calcium carbide-based PVC enterprises reduced notably.
Indian and other foreign buyers hold watch-and-see sentiments after the short-term purchase. Rigid demand in India and Southeast Asia will possibly weaken affected by the rainy season. In addition, China’s PVC powder market may influence foreign buyers’ procurement. On the whole, PVC export volume is likely to remain stable in June and July.
All information provided by SCI is for reference only, which shall not be reproduced without permission.
Please click "Read more" for the full article.
