PBR Imports Dropped While Exports Increased in Aug
Snapshot: In August, China’s PBR import volume dropped notably, mainly because the resources imported from Russia decreased significantly. However, the PBR export volume rose obviously. The change in China’s PBR imports and exports in August and its reasons were analyzed as follows.
In August, China’s PBR import volume declined notably.
According to GACC, China’s PBR import volume was 16,981.44mt in August 2023, down 33.76% M-O-M but up 10.11% Y-O-Y. From January to August, the total PBR import volume was around 159,286.957mt, up 64.49% Y-O-Y. From January to August, the operating rate at China’s tire enterprises mainly trended at highs, and the overall gross profit of the PBR industry was relatively low. As cost failed to support the PBR market, the price of China’s PBR resources has remained lower than the historical monthly average price for eight consecutive months. Yet, the imported resources still had some price advantages. Particularly, the price of PBR resources imported from Russia was much lower than that from traditional channels. However, the PBR import volume in August dropped notably. From the perspective of trade partners, the decrement in August was mainly in the imports from Russia.
As seen from China’s PBR trade partners, Russia and South Korea were still the top 2 in August. Therein, Russia ranked first, but the PBR imports from Russia shrank obviously. The import volume of PBR from Russia was around 4,883.94mt in August, down 68.02% M-O-M and down 29.98% Y-O-Y, which accounted for 29% of the total. South Korea ranked second. The import volume of PBR from South Korea was around 3,464.404mt, down 1.55% M-O-M and down 1.04% Y-O-Y, taking up 20% of the total. In August, most China’s private units resumed normal production. As for state-owned units, the PBR unit at PetroChina Daqing Petrochemical finished maintenance and resumed normal production, but that at Nanjing Yangzi Petrochemical and Rubber remained offline. The overall PBR supply was ample and the price was relatively low. Therefore, fewer imported resources were used in August. The PBR import volume decreased notably.
In terms of the receipt place of imports, Shandong still ranked first in August. The import volume of PBR in Shandong was around 4,252.915mt, down 69.38% M-O-M and down 1.02% Y-O-Y. Many tire enterprises are concentrated in Shandong, consuming plenty of imported PBR resources. As the PBR imports fell notably, the imported resources flowing into Shandong also declined accordingly.
The PBR export volume saw a significant recovery.
According to GACC, China’s PBR export volume was 15,601.418mt in August 2023, up 25.92% M-O-M and up 24.2% Y-O-Y. The total export volume from January to August was around 115,129.245mt, up 28.95% Y-O-Y. The operating rate of China’s PBR units was relatively high, leading to ample PBR supply. In addition, the export price was higher than the price in China’s market. The arbitrage window stimulated traders to actively export.
In September and October, the operating rate of the downstream tire industry is predicted to remain high and stable. The inventory of finished products is expected to be controllable. Besides, the imported PBR resources have notable price advantages. It is projected that China’s PBR import volume in September and October may recover notably from August. As for exports, China’s PBR units are expected to be restarted. China’s PBR export volume is predicted to increase in September and October, driven by the ample supply of Chinese-made PBR and the recovery in overseas demand.
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