Dec 2023 China PE Imports to Keep Falling M-O-M

According to GACC, China’s total import volume in November 2023 was 1,219.32kt, down 0.40% M-O-M and 3.75% Y-O-Y. The total import volume in the first 11 months of 2023 was 12,272.94kt, down 0.81% Y-O-Y. The import volume in November continued to inch down M-O-M but it remained at a high level.

In November 2023, China’s PE imports from major origins saw rises and falls. Those from the U.S., UAE, Iran, Thailand, Qatar and Canada trended down, while those from Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Singapore and Russia improved. The largest increment in import volume was seen from Saudi Arabia. In November, the U.S. remained the top 1 import origin with an import volume of 273.9kt, down 3.7kt or 1.35% M-O-M. That from Saudi Arabia ranked second, which was 219.3kt, up 13.4kt or 6.49% M-O-M, followed by UAE (124.2kt, down 10.2kt or 7.58% M-O-M), Iran (85.8kt, down 22.6kt or 16.93% M-O-M) and South Korea (85.6kt, up 0.9kt or 1.02%).

As for the trade mode, China mainly imported PE via general trade, processing trade with imported materials and stored goods in bonded warehouses. The import volume via general trade was 1,034.07kt in November 2023, down 1.86% M-O-M, taking up 85% of the total. That via processing trade with imported materials and stored goods in bonded warehouses was 112.2kt and 62.0kt, taking up 9% and 5% respectively.
On the whole, although the import volume from Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Russia improved notably, that from other origins declined, dragging down the overall import volume slightly M-O-M. SCI reckons that the import volume will likely continue to fall in December. China’s PE imports from the Middle East, the U.S. and Southeast Asia are expected to trend down. This is mainly because China’s demand peak season in October came to an end, and the overall demand was in a slack season, dampening importing appetites. In addition, China’s PE market price trended down in H1 of December, dampening the imports. It’s estimated that the import volume in December will likely continue to fall M-O-M to around 1,184.7kt.
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