2023 & 2024 Benzene Unit Maintenance Analysis
The supply of benzene in the industry chain remained tight in 2023, and due to the booming demand in the European and American oil blending markets, there has been no growth in import volume throughout the year. China’s domestic maintenance timetable has garnered significant attention as 2024 approaches. A brief analysis of the 2023 maintenance and the 2024 timetable will be provided in this article.
Terminal demand drove stable operation of atmospheric and vacuum distillation plants in 2023, while relatively little maintenance was carried out for catalytic reforming units. In 2023, the enterprise’s production enthusiasm was high due to the good profitability of integrated units. The output loss resulting from scheduled unit maintenance in 2023 was 770.8kt, which was at a relatively low level in the past five years. It is projected that the output loss due to maintenance in 2024 will be roughly 582.1kt, which is 188.7kt less than in 2023.
April to June is a period in which unit maintenance is intensive. Over the past five years, the output loss caused by maintenance in the second quarter of each year accounted for approximately 42% of the annual maintenance losses.
By region, the output losses in 2023 were mostly seen in North China, South China and Northeast China, while in 2024, it will be concentrated in East China and South China.
Future capacity growth will slow down both upstream and downstream as the production of integrated refining and chemical units comes to an end. But when compared horizontally, the downstream capacity of benzene is still growing more quickly than benzene itself. The downstream styrene and CPL capacity are expected to sustain a compound annual growth rate of 5.36% and 5.28%, respectively, during the next five years. Meanwhile, the phenol capacity is projected to exhibit a compound growth rate of 4.04%. Most of the newly added benzene units will be ethylene cracking units in the future. But ethylene cracking units only create a low proportion of benzene. As a result, benzene supply will continue to be tight in the future, and the driving force of benzene on downstream markets will remain high.
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