Sino-U.S. Trade Friction Impact on China SR Industry
Introduction: The U.S. is the world’s major synthetic rubber producer and consumer. In recent years, the U.S. is no longer an important synthetic rubber import trading partner for China, but the escalation of Sino-U.S. trade frictions may also affect China’s imported synthetic rubber market.
In recent years, China’s synthetic rubber imports from the U.S. have declined significantly.
According to SCI, China’s synthetic rubber imports in 2017 were about 1,360kt. Therein, the imports from the U.S. were about 135kt, accounting for around 10% of the total. In 2018, the Sino-US trade friction began, and the amount of synthetic rubber imported from the U.S. began to decline. By 2024, China’s synthetic rubber imports from the U.S. had fallen to 41kt, accounting for about 3%, a decline of 7 percentage points in 7 years. However, SCI found that China’s imports of synthetic rubber from the U.S. in 2018 increased by 35%, mainly because some synthetic rubber products of the U.S. rushed to export that still had a certain market share under the expectation of trade friction. With the increase in the market share of Chinese-made synthetic rubber, some products have also undergone long-term substitution and iteration in downstream and the end use. From 2023 to 2024, China’s imports of synthetic rubber from the U.S. have fallen to around 30kt to 40kt.
The import volume of different types of synthetic rubber from the U.S. may further shrink
According to SCI, the EPDM capacity ranks second in the U.S. total synthetic rubber capacity. According to the data of China’s imports of synthetic rubber from the U.S., the EPDM imports from the U.S. ranked first, with the highest volume in recent years exceeding 100kt. With the escalation of trade frictions, this data has shrunk to less than 3kt. From the perspective of SBR and PBR, China’s import volume from the U.S. has shrunk from around 20kt to 30kt in previous years to around 10kt at present. Besides, the imported PBR was mainly the non-standard products of some suppliers, and the imported SBR was mainly some SSBR.
In summary, since the first stage of the Sino-US trade friction, China’s imports of synthetic rubber from the U.S. have shrunk by about 80% from more than 100kt. With the arrival of a new stage of Sino-US trade friction, it is expected that the imports of SBR, IIR, and PBR from the U.S. may further shrink. The imports of the other types of synthetic rubber have shrunk to around 100mt or 1,000mt, accounting for a negligible proportion, and the impact may be relatively limited. SCI has noticed that the influence of the Sino-US trade escalation covers all commodity areas, so the downstream markets including tires and other rubber products are likely to be also affected.
All information provided by SCI is for reference only, which shall not be reproduced without permission.
Please click "Read more" for the full article.
