Jun 2025 PE Output Forecast
Introduction: SCI forecasts that China’s PE output in June 2025 may reach 2,564.8kt, up 2.15% MoM and 19.60% YoY. Out of the total, the output of LLDPE is estimated at 1,121.6kt, that of HDPE is projected to be 1,193.4kt, and the output of LDPE is expected to be 249.8kt.
Reduced Maintenance-Related Output Loss and Uptick in Operating Rate
SCI estimates that China’s output of PE may be 2,564.8kt in June 2025, up 2.15% MoM and 19.60% YoY. Out of the total, LLDPE, HDPE and LDPE may take up 1,121.6kt, 1,193.4kt and 249.8kt respectively. Despite having one fewer calendar day than May, June’s operating rate is forecast to climb by 4.24 percentage points, resulting in slightly higher monthly supply in June.
Sinopec Yanshan Petrochemical is expected to be in maintenance shutdown for the whole month, and newly added unit maintenance is envisaged to be seen at Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical Group and Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical. Consequently, the LDPE output is anticipated to decrease significantly by 14.57% MoM. However, uninterrupted production at BASF-YPC Company, PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical Yulin Chemical, and Sinopec SABIC Tianjin Petrochemical may partially offset the output loss due to planned maintenance, contributing to a slightly elevated overall operating rate.
From a regional perspective, the supply volume in South China is expected to see a notable increase with the inclusion of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) Chemical in the statistical sample. The LLDPE supply in South China is estimated to increase by approximately 54.6kt or 31.31% compared to May. Meanwhile, Northwest China is expected to post a significant gain of about 75.9kt, primarily driven by output expansion at PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical Yulin Chemical, PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical and Ningxia Baofeng Energy. However, the supply volume in North China and East China may decrease by 41.6kt and 40kt respectively, with reductions seen at Shandong Shouguang Luqing Petrochemical, Sinopec Yanshan Petrochemical and Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical in North China, as well as Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical in East China. Other regions maintained relatively stable output levels.
In June, the output of LDPE is expected to decline, especially in North China. Significant reductions are projected across key product categories: LDPE coating grade (down 15.9kt), cable grade (down 14.8kt), and film grade (down 32.3kt). However, the LDPE output in South China is envisaged to rise by 9kt MoM, supported by expanded production at Sinopec Maoming Petrochemical and CNOOC and Shell Petrochemical.
For HDPE segments, the output gains of injection grade are concentrated in Northeast China and Northwest China, rising by 30.4kt and 35.9kt respectively. Northeast China may see a 40kt increase in high-MFR injection output and a decrease in the output of bottle cap grade, while the output growth in Northwest China may be mainly contributed by low-MFR injection, specifically from Ningxia Baofeng Energy, PetroChina Tarim Petrochemical and PetroChina Dushanzi Petrochemical and the grade 8008H/T.
The output of HDPE raffia materials is anticipated to rise by 22.1kt MoM. Out of the total, the output in Northeast China may grow by 9.4kt MoM, and that in East China may witness a 4.7kt increase. The largest output may be seen in Northwest China, increasing by 15.6kt MoM. The supply volume of HDPE raffia from China Coal Shaanxi Yulin Energy & Chemical is expected to increase, and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical’s HDPE unit is planned to start up in June. An uptick is projected in the supply of 5000S.
May-Jun 2025 China PE Output
Unit: kt
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