China PP Raffia and Low-MFR Copolymer Price Spread Variation in H1 2025
In H1 2025, PP market prices spiraled downwards but then rebounded slightly, with the highest and lowest prices at RMB 7,510/mt and RMB 7,045/mt respectively in early 2025 and early June. Taking PP raffia in East China as an example, the average price was RMB 7,298.54/mt in H1 2025, down 2.92% YOY. As of June 30, the closing price of raffia was RMB 7,160/mt, down 4.66% from the beginning of this year.
From January to the beginning of June, PP prices dropped mainly because of plentiful supply, insipid downstream demand and falling crude and PP futures prices. However, PP prices rallied in the later period of June due to the tariff reductions by the U.S. and China, improved macro environment, stronger crude oil values amid geopolitical tensions and higher PP futures prices. The limited demand release restricted the price growth rate. The competition was intensified in H1 2025 with China’s PP industry undergoing supply structural adjustments amid both challenges and opportunities. On the supply side, although new capacity additions fell short of expectations, high existing capacity continued exerting supply pressure on the market. On the demand side, the overall consumption growth remained sluggish, and market sentiment stayed weak. Generally, mainstream prices of PP declined in H1 2025.
H1 2025 PP Key Market Drivers Assessment
In terms of variety, the price spread between raffia and low-MFR copolymer diminished to RMB 30-275/mt. From January to April, it was hard for PP market prices to perform strongly amid continuous weak improvement in demand. However, unit turnarounds increased and local producers faced favorable presales of raffia during the Spring Festival holiday. Meanwhile, some raffia units switched production and underwent more unexpected turnarounds. Thus, snug supply lent strong support to the raffia price. The downward range of raffia prices was narrower than low-MFR copolymer prices. From April to early May, the price spread between raffia and low-MFR copolymer climbed to RMB 60-140/mt because raffia supply pressure increased with many units restarted. In the first half of May, price spread declined to RMB 40-135/mt as low supply pressure, stronger feedstock cost and passable macro environment underpinned raffia prices. Later, prices spread grew to RMB 60-185/mt, along with supply increase as units that underwent short-term maintenance resumed production. In June, price spread declined to RMB 85-145/mt at first but then climbed to RMB 110-160/mt with fundamental changes. As of June 30, the closing price of low-MFR copolymer was RMB 7,290/mt, down 7.07% from the beginning of 2025. The average price of low-MFR copolymer was RMB 7,522.13/mt, down 2.87% YOY.
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