HDPE Low-MFR Injection: Rising Production Share Signals Price Drop Followed by Recovery in Q3
Introduction: In July 2025, prices of HDPE low-MFR injection declined across all three major regions in China. China’s domestic producers maintain a production share of 6.22% for this grade, exceeding the 2024 average. Coupled with the planned production of 7260 at newly added units, market supply is projected to remain elevated in Q3. However, with the upcoming peak demand season of “Golden September and Silver October”, downstream producers’ demand for feedstock is expected to gradually increase, likely driving prices downward initially before rebounding later in Q3.
Prices: Downward Shift in July
In July 2025, HDPE low-MFR injection prices trended downwards in all three major regions. As of July 21, 2025, prices in North China fell by RMB 150/mt compared to late June, while prices in East China and South China each dropped by RMB 225/mt.
Supply: Rising Production Share
China’s active HDPE low-MFR injection producers possess combined capacity of 2,600kt/a. The production share of HDPE low-MFR injection stands at 6.22%, peaking at 6%–8% in mid-July—the highest level since 2025 and above the 2024 average. With the recent upward trend of market supply, HDPE low-MFR injection availability is expected to remain high in the next month.
China HDPE Low-MFR Injection Production Status (Unit: kt/a)
Demand: Seasonal Lull in July
July remains an off-season for the injection sector, as peak consumption periods for fruit and beverage come to an end. Meanwhile, the absence of centralized procurement from market suppliers has reduced demand for pallets and logistics containers. Amid declining prices, downstream producers show weaker restocking enthusiasm, further dampening their feedstock demand. However, with the peak season approaching in September, downstream producers are projected to increase restocking from mid-to-late August, gradually elevating feedstock demand.
Forecast: Supply Increment to Drive Price Drop, Followed by Recovery
In Q3, beyond the significant mid-July rise in HDPE low-MFR injection production share, new unit operations warrant attention. PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical’s 400kt/a HDPE unit is expected to start in late July, with formal operation expected in August, and it is envisaged to initially produce grade 7260 until October. PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical’s 300kt/a HDPE unit aims for commissioning in late September and formal operation in October, also targeting grade 7260 production for three months.
In summary, HDPE low-MFR injection supply may hit a high level in Q3. As the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak approaches, downstream producers’ demand for feedstock is projected to rise steadily, supporting a price trajectory of recovery after declines.
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