NBR Import Volume Rises & Export Volume Falls in H1
Introduction: In H1 2025, China’s NBR import market saw both price and volume growth amid interactions between the macroeconomic environment, trade frictions, and supply-demand fundamentals. Meanwhile, the export market remained relatively stable.
In H1 2025, China’s NBR import volume inched up.
According to GACC, from January to June in 2025, China’s NBR import volume was 42kt, up 2.68%. The YoY increase was mainly because of gains in off-shore resources. On the one hand, feedstock prices of butadiene declined YoY, so production costs dropped, increasing NBR supply. On the other hand, prices of off-shore resources trended downward overall, boosting buying interest among USD traders, particularly in Q2.
In H1 2025, the main import origin of China’s NBR sector remained largely unchanged, but the import volume from each origin changed. Since 2018, China has imposed anti-dumping duties on imported NBR from South Korea and Japan. Moreover, in the past two years, under the pressure of the economic environment, end enterprises have striven for lower costs. As a result, some downstream enterprises in China replaced the Japan-origin and South Korea-origin resources with other alternatives. As a result, the marginal change in the import volume failed to buttress China’s market.
In H1 2025, China’s NBR export volume inched down.
According to GACC, from January to June in 2025, China’s export volume was 13.5kt, down 8.88% YoY. This decline stemmed mainly from reduced entrepot trade. From the perspective of export trade mode, the export volume of NBR through logistics goods in areas under special customs supervision decreased by 19.34% YoY, but that through general trade increased by 1.46% YoY. China’s suppliers continued to actively expand overseas markets.
In H1 2025, the primary export destination of China’s NBR industry showed limited change, and the main destination was Asia. In the past two years, some Russia-origin goods have been transshipped through China to India. The decline in Russian goods arriving at China’s ports has affected the growth of China’s exports to India. Consequently, from January to June in 2025, China exported approximately 5kt NBR to India. This volume decreased by 17.5% YoY, accounting for 36% of the total exports, and the proportion narrowed by 4% compared to last year.
Furthermore, exports to Vietnam, UAE, and Indonesia surged 34.7%, 116.4%, and 19.0% YoY, respectively. The supply in these countries was limited and unable to meet their market demand, providing export opportunities for China’s NBR products. Additionally, geographical proximity and lower shipping costs boosted China’s enterprise for exporting to Southeast Asia.
In H2 2025, China’s NBR import growth is projected to face continued pressure, while the export volume is expected to be relatively stable.
In terms of imports, China’s downstream consumption may require more time for a full recovery. The stable supply in China and the low price of feedstock will probably also enhance the production enthusiasm of the supply side. Against this oversupply backdrop, import volume growth will possibly remain constrained. In terms of exports, firstly, actively promoting exports is conducive to alleviating China’s supply pressure. Secondly, the economic growth of emerging markets and developing economies is forecasted to ensure a stable demand within the region, and is predicted to provide China with opportunities for exporting NBR. However, the global trade risks caused by US tariffs are projected to remain uncertain, and some overseas end demand is anticipated to change, curbing the growth of NBR export volume. Market players should closely monitor macroeconomic developments.
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