Coated Paper Export Dependency Strengthens Under Sloppy Domestic Demand
Intro: With the improvement of the forestry, pulp, and paper integration among domestic coated paper producers, their cost advantages have become significant, enhancing export competitiveness. Moreover, the high degree of industry self-sufficiency has reduced the demand for imported paper. Over the past five years, China's coated paper imports have remained at a low level, while export reliance has increased. The export reliance of domestic coated paper is expected to continue at a high level of over 40% in 2025.
Coated paper export reliance has increased over the past five years
During the past 5 years, coated paper import volume has slightly decreased, with import dependence fluctuating between 5.57% and 10.86%. Meanwhile, export volume has shown an overall growing trend, and export reliance increased from 20.54% in 2020 to 44.18% in 2024. On one hand, the domestic coated paper industry has a high degree of self-sufficiency, leading to weak demand for imports, and the high cost of imported paper also dampens domestic import enthusiasm. On the other hand, the integration of forestry, pulp, and paper among domestic paper mills has gradually deepened, giving Chinese-made coated paper significant production cost advantages and strong competitiveness in overseas markets. Furthermore, with the continuous decline in paper prices in recent years, paper mills' willingness to export has noticeably increased.
Jan-Sep 2025 export volume increased YoY, with little change in trade partners
Data from China customs shows that the cumulative export volume of coated paper from January to September 2025 was 1,456.2kt, an increase of 1.09% YoY. Monthly coated paper export volumes from January to May were at relatively high levels for the year, primarily due to weak domestic market demand, leading paper mills to rely on exports to alleviate inventory pressure. Coupled with the resumption of production at the idled line in Shandong in March, which increased supply-side pressure in the industry. Coated paper export volume declined in June and July, mainly because domestic paper mills supplied publishing tender orders, which somewhat buffered the supply pressure. In August, the pickup of publishing tender orders gradually concluded, and commercial order performance was weak. To mitigate the impact of reduced demand, coated paper producers actively explored foreign markets, leading to a slight overall recovery in export volume in August and September.
In terms of export trade partners, from January to September 2025, China's main coated paper export trade partners showed little change compared to the same period last year. The top five trade partners and their shares were India (10.75%), Turkey (8.36%), Vietnam (7.91%), Malaysia (5.48%), and the UAE (4.55%). Overall, Southeast Asia and the Middle East remain the primary destinations for China's coated paper exports.
Q4 export growth expectations are limited, full-year exports likely to remain high
The resumption of a previously idled large-scale production line in Shandong in September will increase industry supply. Paper mills might digest inventory by increasing exports. However, considering that a new round of publishing tenders will start on a large scale in November, paper mills will supply a significant volume of publishing orders in November and December. Coupled with increased commercial activities at year-end, printing demands for advertisements, flyers, etc., will also boost commercial consumption of coated paper. Consequently, export demand might be somewhat affected. Overall, the potential for coated paper export growth in Q4 2025 is likely limited. However, given the YoY growth in export volume from January to September, the full-year export reliance is expected to continue at a high level of over 40%.
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