Recent Global Methanol Price and Production Fluctuation Analysis
Up to now, many overseas methanol units remain idle, including both planned maintenance and unplanned shutdowns. In January, Southeast Asia and Europe saw restart of some large-scale units, contributing the global methanol output growth. After the Chinese New Year holiday and till March, with the global supply issues to be solved gradually, more cargoes, especially non-Iranian cargoes may flow back to China.
European methanol prices fell on expected supply recovery.
In 2024, from Q2 to the end of the year, the supply in the European methanol market failed to recover steadily, and the inventory remained at a medium-to-low level, supporting European market prices to keep fluctuating upwards. However, in January 2025, the market reversed its uptrend and fluctuated downwards, with the daily average price FOB NW Europe sliding to € 361/mt up to February 4, down € 70/mt or 16.24% from early January. On the one hand, more imports from the U.S., South America and the Middle East arrived in Europe and a few large-scale methanol units in northern Europe resumed production. Up to February 4, the methanol capacity under shutdown took up about 42% of the total in Europe, down about 24 pp from December 2024. On the other hand, market buying was insufficient. As a result, the methanol prices in Europe fell back amid weakened market sentiments, and the prices in the U.S. also declined. At present, the sales at most suppliers are still slow, and downstream plants are mainly consuming feedstock inventories. Players are paying attention to the operation of important methanol units in Africa.
Methanol supply remained unstable in the Middle East.
In a certain country in the Middle East, most methanol units are still under shutdown, and local methanol inventory remains at a low level. Although a few plants oversold February to March shipment cargoes before the Chinese New Year holiday, the cargoes ready to be shipped are still limited. According to shipment schedules, the volume of January shipment cargoes from a certain country in the Middle East is 192kt, indicating the future arrivals in China can hardly increase substantially.
Downstream plants stocked up in advance.
In China’s domestic methanol market, most suppliers are reluctant to sell at lows, considering the sharp and possible long-time supply reductions. However, downstream users are not eager to buy, because most have stocked up enough feedstock for a medium-to-long term, and the overall feedstock inventory is maintained at a medium-to-high level. Except for a few downstream units under shutdown, most downstream plants were mainly consuming feedstock inventories during December 2024 and end-January 2025, with some operations of buying on dips within the period.
In view of current supply, most market players are cautiously wait-and-see. There are still uncertainties about the restart time of methanol units in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. In the near term, the methanol industrial chain will still face issues of profits distribution, and the methanol market is predicted to keep fluctuate under downward pressure.
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