H2 2025 China Propane Prices to Rebound
Both propane supply and demand increased in H1 2025, but the overall growth in propane supply and demand was limited. Moreover, influenced by the tariff policy, China’s propane prices fluctuated downward. Entering H2 2025, the relatively low prices may stimulate demand improvement. Backed by the traditional demand peak season, it is estimated that China’s propane prices may rebound.
In H1 2025, the overall propane average price decreased YOY, and the price fluctuation enlarged notably. According to SCI’s data, China’s propane prices averaged RMB 5,055/mt in H1 2025, down 1.86% YOY. On June 30, 2025, China’s propane price reached RMB 5,103/mt, down 7.15% from the beginning of 2025.
China’s propane prices saw two rounds of ups and downs in H1 2025, mainly influenced by changes in supply and demand.
China’s propane supply further increased with growth slowing down.
China’s propane output and import volume moved upward in H1 2025, but the growth of propane supply slowed down. According to SCI’s data, China’s propane supply may total about 17,138.7kt in H1 2025, up 3.71% YOY. However, the growth rate of propane supply declined by 13.22 percentage points YOY.
China’s propane output totaled 2,423.3kt in H1 2025, up 7.30% YOY. Yulong Petrochemical refining and chemical integration project was put into use in Q4 2024, lifting the propane output. Moreover, supported by the development of LPG subdivision, China’s propane output increased.
From January to June 2025, China’s propane import volume was 14,265.2kt, down 0.60% YOY. In China, import took up a relatively high proportion in the total propane supply. Supported by the PDH capacity expansion, the demand for propane from the PDH industry strengthened gradually, so China’s propane import volume moved upward. The demand for propane from the cracking industry shrank notably from June 2025, weighing down propane import volume. Besides, influenced by the Sino-U.S. tariff change, China’s propane import volume notched a relatively high level of 2,708.9kt in May 2025.
The demand for propane saw limited improvements in H1 2025.
As of the end of June 2025, it is estimated that the propane downstream demand volume may total about 16,824.5kt, up 3.80% YOY. Although the demand volume inched up, but the growth rate narrowed. Three new PDH units were put into use in H1 2025 with the total newly added capacity of 2,560kt/a, lifting propane demand. However, propane prices increased to high levels in April 2025 in the wake of changes in tariff policy, weighing down downstream demand. Some crackers were shut down, so the demand for propane from the cracking industry weakened notably. Besides, influenced by the civil-use gas demand slack season, it is predicted that the propane demand in June 2025 may decline YOY.
Tariff changes resulted in propane price fluctuations.
China’s propane import dependence degree was high, and the U.S.-origin propane resources took a relatively high proportion. Tariff adjustments triggered market panic, temporarily disrupting established pricing mechanisms. On April 4, the day China announced retaliatory tariffs, CP expectations surged, and China’s propane prices also went up in the wake of concerns for import decline and increments in import costs.
With market sentiment cooling down, supply and demand fundamentals became the key factor influencing China’s propane prices. Profits at some deep-processing enterprises dropped notably with propane prices reaching high levels, weighing down operating rates of PDH units. Moreover, the demand for propane from the civil-use gas market also weakened, as the price spread between propane and civil-use gas enlarged. With the Sino-U.S. tariff easing, sluggish demand and low-price Russia-origin resources, China’s propane prices kept dipping.
China’s propane prices may go down in H2 2025 with rising supply and demand, and uncertainties in tariff policy.
China’s propane supply is likely to go up.
It is predicted that China’s propane output may reach 2,568.9kt in H2 2025, up 6.01% from H1 2025. Entering July, fewer refineries may take overhauls, so China’s propane output may rise. Given the autumn maintenance, China’s propane output may tighten slightly from September to November. However, the subdivision of civil-use gas and butane deep-processing capacity expansion may lift propane output.
As for import volume, China’s propane import volume may total about 14,817.6kt in H2 2025, up 3.87% from H1 2025. Entering July, some overhauled propane deep-processing units may be restarted in succession. Entering Q4 2025, the demand from the civil-use gas market may improve, supporting China’s propane import volume. Given the uncertainties in tariff policy, importers may pay more attention to diversified import trade partners, facilitating China’s propane imports.
China’s propane demand is likely to strengthen.
China’s propane downstream consumption volume in H2 2025 may go up from H1 2025. It is estimated that China’s propane consumption volume may be about 17,504.4kt in H2 2025, up 4.04% from H1 2025 and mainly backed by the PDH industry and the demand from the civil-use gas market.
Given the propane cracking economic efficiency and impacts of tariff policy uncertainties on future propane import volume and prices, some enterprises may intend to switch the cracking feedstock. Accordingly, it is predicted that the demand for propane from the cracking industry may weaken in H2 2025, offsetting demand improvements from PDH and civil-use gas markets. Overall, it is predicted that China’s propane demand may go up in H2 2025.
China’s propane prices may increase at first and then decline in H2 2025. China’s propane prices declined to a relatively low level in Q2, stimulating downstream demand. Accordingly, it is estimated that China’s propane prices may rise from low levels at the beginning of H2 2025. However, the overall propane prices may see minor improvements and hover at RMB 4,500-5,000/mt in H2 2025, as the propane demand may strengthen slightly, and the international crude oil prices may go down. Besides, based on the price seasonality, the highest price and lowest price may appear in November and July respectively.
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