Oct 2025 Qingdao Natural Rubber Inventory Reduction Slows
China’s natural rubber imports showed a seasonal decline in October. On the one hand, affected by the National Day holiday, some shipments were delayed. On the other hand, excessive rainfall in major production areas caused unsmooth rubber tapping work, and the increase in new rubber output fell short of expectations. Moreover, it was heard that typhoons caused delays in some shipments. Overall, the arrival volume of imported natural rubber was not large after the holiday, keeping inventory pressure low at the main port in Qingdao. However, arrivals increased towards the end of October, significantly raising the volume of natural rubber entering warehouses in Qingdao. As a result, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was first at a low level and then leveled up in October.
Demand: Purchases of feedstock from downstream tire enterprises turned from strong to weak.
The operating rates of all-steel tire units in October inched up YoY, while those of semi-steel tire units went lower YoY. Therefore, the consumption of natural rubber was mainly supported by rigid demand. Specifically, after the National Day holiday, escalated China-U.S. trade tensions created a bearish macroeconomic sentiment. Influenced by interconnected commodity markets, natural rubber prices declined. Then, tire enterprises demonstrated high enthusiasm for procuring feedstock at lower prices, with daily average transaction volume exceeding 10kt. This propped up inventory drawdowns in Qingdao. In mid-October, as macroeconomic sentiment improved and commodity markets rebounded, mainstream prices of natural rubber fluctuated upwards. In particular, the price of Thailand’s standard rubber was higher than that of mixed rubber due to the supply shortage. This cooled procurement enthusiasm among downstream enterprises, and the outflow of natural rubber from warehouses in Qingdao slowed. By the final week of October, the natural rubber inventory had accumulated.
Natural rubber inventory in Qingdao is expected to gradually accumulate in November.
On the supply side, major overseas production areas are entering the production peak season. Coupled with increased sales pressure on rubber processing plants and modest international demand, the volume of natural rubber flowing into China is set to rise. Notably, some overseas rubber processing plants converted mixed rubber orders into standard rubber because the price of standard rubber was much higher than that of mixed rubber in the previous period. As these standard rubber shipments arrive at ports, inventory in the Qingdao Bonded Zone is likely to accumulate gradually. As a result, the price of standard rubber may become lower than that of mixed rubber.
On the demand side, the earlier surge in exports has likely pulled forward some future orders. Additionally, the EU’s anti-dumping policy on Chinese semi-steel tires casts a shadow over export prospects. Domestically, as temperatures drop in northern China, reducing travel, consumption is entering a slack season. Consequently, downstream demand for natural rubber is projected to soften.
In summary, the increasing supply and weakening demand suggest that natural rubber inventory in Qingdao will likely show a buildup in November.
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