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来源TradeWinds：Stephen Gordon克拉克森研究公司的全球董事总经理
今年上半年，克拉克森Clarksons一项追踪航运各板块市场强度的指数出现了下滑态势，跌幅达 5%。然而，集装箱船在其中发挥了关键作用，顶住了贸易战不确定性的影响，否则该指数的跌幅可能更为严重。
克拉克森的 ClarkSea 指数显示，今年上半年即期费率约为略高于 24,100 美元 / 天，相较于 2024 年同期的约 25,500 美元 / 天有所下降。市场情况复杂多变，上周一些超大型原油运输船（VLCC）的租船费率一度达到 100,000 美元 / 天的高位，但随后便大幅下跌。
克拉克森研究董事总经理斯蒂芬・戈登（Stephen Gordon）指出，该跨市场指数的集装箱部分飙升了 79%，但其他所有板块平均下跌了 31%。在上半年回顾中，戈登写道：“集装箱市场暂时‘摆脱’了关税担忧和船队增长的影响，维持了去年的涨幅，租船费率同比上涨 80%，比趋势水平高出 80%。” 这一表现使得集装箱船在整体市场走弱的情况下，成为支撑指数的重要力量。
尽管成品油轮有较为强劲的表现，但 ClarkSea 指数的油轮部分在上半年仍下跌了 33%。干散货船同样面临困境，下跌了 31%。液化石油气（LPG）运输船板块中，尽管超大型液化气船（VLGC）表现强劲，但整体仍下跌了 22%。戈登称，液化天然气（LNG）运输船费率疲软的原因是新造船交付早于新出口项目完成。另外，即使巴西市场火热，海工船费率也有所下降。
从贸易数据来看，戈登表示，由于只有 4% 的全球贸易面临新关税，上半年整体贸易增长仅收缩 0.4%。克拉克森预计到年底贸易将恢复 “小幅” 增长。
海洋天气公报
预报：王皘 签发：黄彬 2025 年 07 月 06 日 06 时
我国东南部海域将受台风“丹娜丝”影响
一、近海海域天气实况
7月5日14时至6日02时，南海东北部海域、台湾海峡、台湾以东洋面、巴士海峡出现了5~7级、阵风8级的风，其中南海东北部海域出现了8~10级、阵风11~12级的旋转风。
二、未来三天具体预报
6日08时至7日08时，南海东北部海域、台湾海峡偏南海域将有7～9级、阵风10级增大到10～11级、阵风12～13级的旋转风，其中台风“丹娜丝”中心经过的附近海域风力可达12～14级、阵风15～16级，巴士海峡将有7～9级、阵风10级的偏南风，南海中东部和南部海域将有6～7级、阵风8级的西南风，东海南部海域、台湾以东洋面将有7～9级、阵风10级的风。
7日08时至8日08时，台湾海峡偏北海域、东海西南部海域、台湾以东洋面将有7～9级、阵风10～11级的风，其中台风“丹娜丝”中心经过的附近海域风力可达10～11级、阵风12～13级，东海北部海域将有5～6级、阵风7级的东南风，北部湾、南海东北部、中部和南部海域将有5～6级、阵风7级的西南风。
8日08时至9日08时，东海西部海域、台湾海峡、台湾以东洋面、巴士海峡将有6～8级、阵风9级的风，其中东海西南部的部分海域风力可达9级、阵风10级，北部湾、南海大部海域将有4～6级、阵风7级的西南风。
海事天气公报
ZCZC
WWCI50 BABJ 060000
2:2:31:11:11:00
BT
PAN PAN =
MESSAGE FOR METAREA XI (CHINA) ISSUED BY NMC BEIJING
AT 0330UTC JUL.06 2025 =
MESSAGE IS UPDATED EVERY 06 HOURS =
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000UTC JUL.06 =
FCST VALID 0000UTC JUL.07 =
WARNNING=
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNNING=
TY DANAS 2504(2504) 975HPA AT 21.6N 118.2E
MVG NE 13KMH AND MAX WINDS 33M/S NEAR CENTER
(SEAS UP TO 8.5M)
AND RADIUS OF 30KTS WINDS
200KM NE
250KM SE
150KM SW
180KM NW
AND RADIUS OF 50KTS WINDS
60KM NE
60KM SE
50KM SW
50KM NW
AND FCST FOR 060600UTC AT 22.2N 118.6E 965HPA
AND MAX WINDS 38M/S NEAR CENTER
AND FCST FOR 061200UTC AT 22.8N 119.1E 955HPA
AND MAX WINDS 42M/S NEAR CENTER
AND FCST FOR 061800UTC AT 24.2N 120.5E 970HPA
AND MAX WINDS 35M/S NEAR CENTER
AND FCST FOR 070000UTC AT 25.8N 121.3E 985HPA
AND MAX WINDS 25M/S NEAR CENTER=
SUMMARY=
SE/SLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP
TO 2.0M OVER SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA AND
BASHI CHANNEL=
NE WINDS FROM 12 TO 14M/S GUSTS 18M/S SEAS UP TO
2.5M OVER TAIWAN STRAIT=
SW/SLY WINDS FROM 10 TO 12M/S GUSTS 14M/S SEAS UP
TO 1.5M OVER SEA EAST OF TAIWAN AND EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH CHINA SEA AND SOUTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
CYCLONIC WINDS FROM 14 TO 18M/S GUSTS 22M/S SEAS
UP TO 3.5M OVER NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA
SEA=
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY LESS THAN 10KM OVER BOHAI
STRAIT AND NORTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA AND
SOUTHERN PART OF YELLOW SEA AND ANDAMAN SEA AND
MALACCA STRAIT AND SEA EAST OF SINGAPORE AND SEA
SOUTH OF SUMATERA AND SUNDA STRAIT AND LAUT JAWA
AND SEA SOUTH OF JAWA AND LAUT MALUKU AND LAUT
BANDA=
FCST=
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA
E WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S VEER S WINDS
12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S SEA STATE MODERATE
TO ROUGH OVERCAST BECMG MODERATE RAIN VIS GOOD TO
MODERATE=
TAIWAN STRAIT
S WINDS VEER W 28 TO 32M/S GUSTS 32 TO 36M/S SEA
STATE VERY ROUGH RAINSTORM BECMG MODERATE RAIN VIS
POOR TO MODERATE=
SEA EAST OF TAIWAN
S WINDS 16 TO 20M/S GUSTS 20 TO 24M/S INCR 20 TO
24M/S GUSTS 24 TO 28M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO VERY
ROUGH HEAVY RAIN BECMG MODERATE RAIN VIS MODERATE=
BASHI CHANNEL
SW WINDS 16 TO 20M/S GUSTS 20 TO 24M/S SEA STATE
VERY ROUGH TO ROUGH HEAVY RAIN BECMG MODERATE RAIN
VIS MODERATE=
NORTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 20 TO 24M/S GUSTS 24 TO 28M/S DECR 12 TO
16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S SEA STATE VERY ROUGH TO
ROUGH MODERATE RAIN BECMG OVERCAST VIS MODERATE TO
GOOD=
WEST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S DECR 06 TO
08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE MODERATE
MODERATE RAIN BECMG CLOUDY VIS MODERATE TO GOOD=
EAST CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 12 TO 16M/S GUSTS 16 TO 20M/S DECR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE ROUGH TO
MODERATE MODERATE RAIN VIS MODERATE=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE
MODERATE CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE
MODERATE MODERATE RAIN BECMG CLOUDY VIS MODERATE
TO GOOD=
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF JAPAN SEA
W WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S VEER NE
WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE
MODERATE TO SLIGHT CLOUDY VIS GOOD=
SEA EAST OF RYUKYU ISLANDS
S WINDS 06 TO 08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE MODERATE
OVERCAST VIS GOOD=
SEA NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES
S WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE
MODERATE OVERCAST BECMG MODERATE RAIN VIS GOOD TO
MODERATE=
SEA SOUTHEAST OF INDONESIA
SE WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE
MODERATE MODERATE RAIN VIS MODERATE=
SEA SOUTH OF JAWA
E WINDS 06 TO 08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S VEER SE
WINDS 06 TO 08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S SEA STATE
MODERATE MODERATE RAIN VIS MODERATE=
SEA SOUTH OF SUMATERA
E WINDS 06 TO 08M/S GUSTS 08 TO 12M/S INCR 08 TO
12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE MODERATE
MODERATE RAIN BECMG CLOUDY VIS MODERATE TO GOOD=
ANDAMAN SEA
SW WINDS 08 TO 12M/S GUSTS 12 TO 16M/S SEA STATE
MODERATE MODERATE RAIN VIS MODERATE=
NNNN
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