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现在不要投资黄金制品行业
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迪拜：在美元利率升高导致美元增值的背景下，黄金好像失去了投资者的青睐。分析师说更大的下降趋势表现在黄色金属制品上，这使得更多的投资者不再投资这种无红利资产。
国际黄金现货交易已经持续崩溃，在周四，其交易额直线下降了十分之一，这一降幅自1996年以来是最大的。在2013年来看，每盎司黄金从1100美元（4037迪拉姆）下降到300美元。
然而当前的下降起因于中国在7月17日公布了其黄金储备在六月底增长了60%达到每盎司黄金为1658美元，这比分析师预测的要低很多。
“中国日报报道，对于黄金市场是失望的，因为由于黄金的货币通量降低，人们认为他们已经储备了很多黄金。”，瑞士宝盛银行商品分析师Carsten Menke在苏黎世告诉Gulf news记者。Menke 说道“在周一早晨，亚洲交易所开市时，我们在黄金价格上已经有了很大的跌降。在亚洲交易所，其速度和数量在短期内交易至套保资金。”
“一个更重要的技术发展是7月20日的廉价抛售先于黄金交易所交易基金大救市之前，在7月17日，几乎50400盎司的黄金交易额在全球黄金交易所交易基金额中退出，这是2013年7月以来最大的降幅。”摩根私人银行全球投资战略主管Cesar Perez说道。
高汇率
从上海到纽约的交易者想知道在美元利率上升高表现出的黄金的黯淡未来时期下，这些神秘的购买者是谁。
高汇率可以吸引投资者向债券方向而不是黄金行业。高汇率的预期同样推进了美元，使得增值美元给通货膨胀盖上了一个盖子，这同样使得黄金会因为升高的价格降低了人们对它的吸引力。
Menke 说：“我们正在观望黄金经济的改善，同样我们关注较高的汇率，因此现在不是投资者购买和持有黄金的好环境。”
摩根官方也同意Menke的观点。
Perez 说道：“我们相信在不远的将来黄金价格的压力将会下降，随着消费的基础支持，当前价格仍然在生产商关注黄金合适产量的水平之上。在美元增值，汇率升高的环境下，投资者更倾向于以不好的态度看待黄金。” Morgan Stanley说道，在最差的背景下，金银的价格将跌至每盎司800美元。
证券投资中没有黄金
Menke 说道：“两年多之前，我们服务的大部分客户在他们的投资组合中并未持有黄金的时候，投资委员会决定推销黄金。持有黄金的顾客把其看做为应付宽泛金融市场以及经济风险的一个保险。”但这些投资者是很少的。“在风险因素方面，对希腊的担心仍是持久的。但是我们不期望欧洲债券危机如四年前一样的复兴。考虑到乌克兰内部的矛盾，其将会持续徘徊，但不应会有进一步的扩大。如果顾客看到这些相比于我们巨大的风险，在投资组合中持有黄金是有必要的。”，Menke补充道。
Forget about investing in glittering gold for now
(From gulfnews)
Dubai: Gold seems to have lost favour among investors, in the backdrop of rising interest rates in the United States and therefore a stronger dollar. Much more downside is expected in the yellow metal, analysts say, which could push more investors away from the non-dividend paying asset.
International spot gold has continued its rout, and on Thursday it extended losses for a tenth straight session, it’s biggest since 1996. Gold was at $1,100 (Dh4,037) an ounce, down $300 from levels seen in 2013.
However, the current rout was triggered after China on July 17 disclosed that their reserves were up by 60 per cent at $1,658 as of end of June, much lower than analysts expectations.
“The [China] news disappointed the market as people thought they had bought more gold because their share of gold of total currency reserves were pretty low,” Carsten Menke, commodity analyst with Bank Julius Baer & Co told Gulf News from Zurich. “On Monday morning, after Asian trading started we had a huge fall in gold price. The speed and magnitude pointed to short selling by hedge funds in Asia,” Menke said.
A more significant technical development was that the sell-off on July 20 was preceded by large redemptions from gold ETFs, almost 504,000 ounces were withdrawn from global gold ETF’s on July 17, the largest one-day decrease since July 2013, said Cesar Perez, Global Head of Investment Strategy, J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Higher rates
Traders from Shanghai to New York want to know who these mystery sellers were, nevertheless in the backdrop, rising US rates further paints a bleak future for gold.
Higher rates can draw investors toward bonds and away from gold. The prospect of higher rates is also boosting the dollar, and a strong dollar tends to keep a lid on inflation, which also diminishes gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.
“We are seeing improvements in the global economy, and we are heading for higher rates, so it’s not an environment where investors are very keen on buying gold or holding gold,” said Menke.
Even officials at JP Morgan agreed with Menke’s view.
“We believe there will be downward pressure on gold prices in the near future, as from a cost support basis, current prices are still above levels where we believe producers begin considering production adjustments. In an environment where the dollar strengthens and rate rises approach, investors would tend to keep a bearish attitude towards gold,” said Perez. Even Morgan Stanley said that under its worst-case scenario bullion may tumble to $800 an ounce.
No gold in portfolio
“Most clients that we service don’t own any gold in their portfolio as more than two years ago, the Investment Committee decided to sell gold. Those clients who still hold gold see it as an insurance against broader financial market and economic risks.” Menke said. But these investors may be very few. “In terms of risk factors, worries about Greece will remain, but we do not expect a revival of the Eurozone debt crisis as seen four years ago. With regards to the conflict in Ukraine, it will likely continue to linger, but there should be no further escalation. If clients see these as bigger risk compared to us, then it might make sense to have some gold in the portfolio,” Menke added.
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