Trump’s tariff merry-go-round is destroying global trade



Trump’s tariff merry-go-round is destroying global trade

全球化智库CCG

2025-08-31

导读：Trump’s tariff merry-go-round is destroying global trade. What next?

Submitting to Trump’s deals, Western allies have ceded their position as defenders of multilateral trade. The world needs new alternatives

By Zhou Xiaoming | Senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG), Former Deputy Permanent Representative of China's Mission to the UN Office in Geneva.

As his new tariff regime came into force in early August, US President Donald Trump emerged as a clear victor. Largely due to the United States’ unrivalled market power, he was able to force major concessions from trading partners: zero tariff access and reduced non-tariff barriers from quite a number of countries, hundreds of billions of dollars in expected tariff revenue annually and around US$1 trillion in purchase commitments, not to mention pledged investments of at least US$1.5 trillion that are equal to 5 per cent of America’s economic output.

Some may argue that the sum of Trump’s latest terms and “reciprocal” tariffs at least provides a critical condition for making important business decisions – certainty. In truth, however, the dust will never settle on Trump’s tariffs, and more can be expected. One only needs to look at his tariff blitzes on Brazil and India to appreciate this.

Robert Zoellick, former US trade representative and World Bank president, has described Trump’s tariffs as a merry-go-round that won’t stop. “He believes uncertainty adds to his power and wants the freedom to bully others depending on what has his attention,” Zoellick wrote in The Wall Street Journal. No one should be surprised if Trump abruptly raises tariffs again.

Even if Trump keeps his tariffs unchanged, this kind of certainty is as comforting as the plight of an innocent man who has been sentenced to life imprisonment. As Trump’s egregious tariff system takes hold, the world economy will slow down and the law of the jungle will return.

To start with, Trump’s tariff regime would inflict significant economic damage on the European Union, Japan and South Korea, which bear the lion’s share of the purchase commitments and investment pledges made to the US. Outflows of capital that is badly needed at home would further set back anaemic economic recoveries.

Moreover, industries such as cars, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and shipbuilding could shift to the US, which would hollow out domestic industries and weaken these US allies’ ability to innovate and compete globally.

From SCMP， 2025-8-29

CCG Books

● Published by Springer

● Editors: Henry Huiyao Wang, Mabel Lu Miao

More Information

This new book focuses on the latest trends in four major areas—global governance, trade and economics, science and technology, and culture and exchange—providing the reader with information on the latest developments in these areas with a special focus on China and its relevant contributions. It is hoped that this book will inspire deeper discussion and consideration of the issues we face as a global community and how non-governmental entities can play a stabilizing role in global communication and in exploring solutions to common challenges.

● Links：

https://link.springer.com/book/9789819624515

● Published by Springer

● Editors: Henry Huiyao Wang, Mabel Lu Miao

More Information

This open access book explores the ‘polycrisis’ currently affecting nearly all nations by exploring key themes such as multilateralism and globalization from the perspective of think tanks from nearly every continent, searching for various solutions to the ills that currently plague the world and a way to create a future in which everyone benefits.

As China’s preeminent non-governmental think tank, the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) has invited 30 leading figures from the global think tank community to sift through the myriad layers of multilateralism and global governance and provide a contextual analysis of major themes both from a theoretical and practical perspective, focusing on China in detail, but also examining the world as a whole.

● Links：

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-97-2558-8

● Published by Springer

● Editors: Henry Huiyao Wang, Mabel Lu Miao

More Information

As the world continues to recover from the fear and uncertainty of the Covid-19 pandemic, a new set of challenges like increased geopolitical tensions and climate change have become increasingly prominent. This open access book, which contains the views of ambassadors to Beijing on topics ranging from bilateral relations to potential cooperation, global development and even more of the most immediate issues, aims to help readers make sense of our changing world and China’s role in it.

Building on the success of our previous volume China and the World in a Changing Context: Perspectives from Ambassadors to China, the Center for China and Globalization (CCG) has invited 27 ambassadors to examine China’s role in this context of constant flux, focusing specifically on China’s perspective, including its trade and investment ties with other countries, as well as its role in multilateral regional relations and global governance.

● Links：

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-99-7512-9

● Published by Springer

● Authors: Wang Huiyao

More Information

The book raised the question of how relations between the US and China will unfold is one of the most consequential of the 21st century. In the past decade, perhaps no thinker has had a greater influence on how this question is understood in both the US and China than eminent Harvard scholar Graham Allison, who developed the idea of the Thucydides Trap to warn of the risk of war erupting between a rising power and a ruling power in the power transition process.

This book presents a comprehensive collection of Allison’s views and writings on US-China relations from 2017 to 2022, covering a range of topics including the balance of power between the two sides, where the relationship is headed, and lessons from history on how conflict can be avoided.

● Links：

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-99-2236-9

● Published by Springer

● Authors: Joseph S. Nye

More Information

This open access book consists of essays selected from Joseph S. Nye, Jr.’s last three decades of writing and illustrate a variety of perspectives on the nature of power, the role of the United States in the world and US-China relations. Through this collection, it is hoped that readers will gain a better understanding of today’s global environment and find that while great power competition may be inevitable in a world as centers of power shift, cooperating to address transnational challenges can be a positive sum game.

● Links：

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-99-0714-4

● Published by Palgrave Macmillan Singapore

● Editors: Wang Huiyao, Miao Lu

More Information

This book aims to help readers make sense of our changing world by sharing the views of global thought leaders on some of the most important issues of our time, from US-China relations and global governance to climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The ten dialogues in this book were part of the “China and the World” series of online discussions hosted by the Center for China and Globalization (CCG). The series features CCG President Huiyao Wang in conversation with experts from a range of fields, from renowned scholars of international relations, economics, and history, to journalists, policymakers, and business leaders.

● Links：

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-19-3846-7

● Published by Springer

● Authors: Wang Huiyao

More Information

This book focuses on globalization and China’s evolving role in the world, offering unique perspectives on a number of developments during a tumultuous period that began with Donald Trump’s election and ended with the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. This period saw the global landscape reshaped by China’s continued rise, intensifying great power competition, and a public health crisis that has changed how we live.

The essays center on three interconnected themes – China’s remarkable development under its policy of Reform and Opening-up, China’s deepening integration into the global economy and rise in an increasingly multipolar world, as well as the quest to revitalize global governance and multilateralism to address the pressing global challenges of the 21st century.

● Links：

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-9253-6

● Published by Springer

● Edited by Wang Huiyao and Miao Lu

More Information

China and the World in a Changing Context-Perspectives from Ambassadors to China is the latest volume in CCG’s “China and Globalization” series, which seeks to create a balanced global perspective by gathering the views of highly influential scholars, practitioners, and opinion leaders from around the world on issues of policy and governance.

Ambassadors are a kind of vehicle and bellwether for globalization. These diplomatic envoys serve as pivotal contact points between nations across a wide range of fields, from economics and culture, to health and the environment. The special group of ambassadors in this book – all based in Beijing – are at the forefront of what, for many countries, is one of their most important bilateral relationships and the platform for one of the most striking and consequential developments in global affairs in the 21st century: the rise of China on the world stage.

● Links：

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-8086-1

● Published by Springer

● Edited by Wang Huiyao and Miao Lu

More Information

Released nearly two years after the outbreak of COVID-19, Transition and Opportunity brings together an array of CEOs and senior executives from leading multinationals, leaders of foreign trade associations and representatives of advocacy groups on the ground in China to share their views on the potential and risks China holds for business as the world economy recovers.

The 22 entries in this book include contributions from the heads of Beijing-based chambers of commerce representing the EU, the US, France, Switzerland and Brazil and others, CEOs and senior executives of MNCs like Airbus, Royal DSM, Michelin, LinkedIn and Herbalife as well as representatives of global consulting firms like KPMG, PwC, Accenture and Roland Berger.

Divided into three parts - ‘The Big Picture,’ ‘Analysis and Advice,’ and ‘On the Ground’ - content progresses from looking at how countries balance their own interests with China’s for that elusive ‘win-win’ formula, to the role consultancies and advisors play in helping companies succeed, then looking at the experiences of individual companies to see how they have adapted and thrived in China.

● Links：

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-8603-0

● Published by Springer

● Edited by Wang Huiyao and Alistair Michie

More Information

This book brings together leading international scholars and policy-makers to explore the challenges and dilemmas of globalization and governance in an era increasingly defined by economic crises, widespread populism, retreating internationalism, and a looming cold war between the United States and China. It provides the diversity of views on those widely concerned topics such as global governance, climate change, global health, migration, S&T revolution, financial market, and sustainable development.

● Links：

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-16-5391-9

● Published by Springer

● Edited by Wang Huiyao, President and Miao Lu, Vice President, Center for China and Globalization(CCG), Beijing, China

More Information

The internationalization of Chinese enterprises is one of the most notable aspects of economic globalization in the 21st century. Despite the 2008 financial crisis and weak global outbound investment, under the “go global“ initiative, Chinese outbound investment has gone from strength to strength, while also diversifying in terms of investment modalities, destinations, and industries. However, growing anti-globalization sentiment in some countries has also created new challenges for Chinese firms expanding internationally.

Drawing on nearly 3000 data samples, using both quantitative and qualitative research methods, this book presents unique insights into the features and patterns of Chinese enterprises’ globalization. The analysis provides a useful reference for enterprises that have already gone global and those that plan to. In particular, this book investigates challenges confronted by Chinese companies when doing business in foreign countries. It summarizes research covering three angles, namely: the current situation, causation analysis and corresponding solutions, and recommendations for firms, government agencies and other institutions.

This book provides a comprehensive overview to help readers to grasp the broad picture of the international expansion of Chinese enterprises. It has important reference value for enterprises to help devise foreign investment strategy, seize opportunities, and navigate challenges in the course of globalization.

● Links：

https://www.springer.com/cn/book/9789811546457

● Published by Edward Elgar

● Edited by Wang Huiyao, President and Miao Lu, Vice President, Center for China and Globalization(CCG), Beijing, China

More Information

An excellent guide for understanding the trends, challenges and opportunities facing China through globalization, this Handbook answers the pertinent questions regarding the globalization process and China’s influence on the world.

With contributions from leading experts and international researchers, each chapter covers key topics regarding China’s participation in globalization, including: China’s new role in global economic governance; outward direct investment; China’s soft power and the implications for foreign relations; global migration, diaspora and talent. An enriching range of case studies and extensive empirical research are used to explore the successes and failures of globalization in China, and to discuss the dilemmas facing decision makers in today’s globalized world. A major contribution to the field, this Handbook offers valuable insights to China’s often misunderstood globalization process.

An essential reference for academics and researchers looking for a go-to empirical resource, this Handbook provides scholars of economics, politics and East Asian studies with an exemplary selection of contemporary research on China and globalization.

● Links：

https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/handbook-on-china-and-globalization

● Published by Springer

● Authors: Wang Huiyao, President and Miao Lu, Vice President, Center for China and Globalization(CCG), Beijing, China

The first effort to address the gap regarding higher-end talent within the scholarly work on internal labor migration in China

Provides an essential overview of the major milestones in China’s talents attraction policies, as well as several recommendations to help further improve those policies

Investigates corresponding policies in Germany, Japan, and Singapore to serve as a basis for comparison

Provides a snapshot of first-hand reference material for relevant stakeholders involved in cooperation with China

More Information

This book offers the most comprehensive, up-to-date assessment of China’s domestic and international migration. Restructuring economic development requires large numbers of educated and skilled talents, but this effort comes at a time when the size of China’s domestic workforce is shrinking. In response, both national and regional governments in China have been keen to encourage overseas Chinese talents and professionals to return to the country. Meanwhile, the Chinese government has initiated a number of policies to attract international highly-skilled talents and enhance the country’s competitiveness, and some Chinese policies have started attracting foreign talents, who are coming to the country to work, and even to stay. Since Chinese policies, mechanisms, and administration efforts to attract and retain skilled domestic or overseas talents are helping to reshape China’s economy and are significantly affecting the cooperation on migration and talent mobility, these aspects, in addition to being of scholarly and research interest, hold considerable commercial potential.

● Links：

https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789811362552#aboutBook