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特朗普当选，看看华尔街基金经理怎么说

Kavout

2016-11-11

导读：市场正在狂欢，但是华尔街分析师说，还不要高兴得太早。

本文乃华尔街股票网特约稿件，由华尔街知名对冲基金合伙人Keith Kline创作。

“昨晚发生了什么！！！！？？？？”

你今天早上八成会问自己这个问题。

美国只是一个种族主义国家吗？我们要变成孤立主义国家了吗？我们要开始建墙了吗？我们是刚刚选择了一个卡通人物成为总统吗？

答案是不，不，不，不。

答案是，美国人选择资本主义而不是社会主义。

虽然你在新闻中听到各种各样的说法，不过，美国人民明白，当前经济情况只是一个政府建造的空中楼阁。低达4.9%的失业率，高达18000点的道琼斯指数，0%的利率，它们都只是海市蜃楼。

如果你像我一样，昨天晚上熬到三点半，你会看到道琼斯工业平均指数狂跌了800点。我写这篇文章的时候，市场回调到只下降了200点，但这仍然会是非常不稳定的一天。因此，从投资的角度来看，了解市场动荡的原因非常重要。

这不是因为特朗普要开始贸易战争，也不是因为特朗普会疏远我们的盟友，更不是因为特朗普要开始轰炸每个人。

市场下跌是因为美联储之后会大幅提高利率。就像我在选举前说过的那样，耶伦是民主党，而民主党人会从今天开始为2020年竞选活动做准备。他们会统一战线，努力让特朗普任期内的经济情势看起来不好。

今天早上，10年期的美国债券利率增加到将近2%，这是6个月来的最高点。在今年剩下的时间里，你可以把你的投资精力放在这个领域。

不过，不要搞错了。特朗普是一个资本主义者，资本主义对股市是有益的。对公司的法规与限制会变少，税收也会减少。从长远来看，美国的经济将会起飞。但是，我们必须先拆除经济中的空中楼阁。只有先拆卸，我们才能开始重建。这就是特朗普接下来会做的事。所以，我预计股价在短期内会出现一定的下降。

我建议你在未来3个月到6个月内，建立一个保守的投资组合。但是，在2017年的某个时候，会有一个惊人的购买机会。现在，我会先把资产转为现金，并静静等待这个买入机会的到来。

英文原文：

Capitalism Trumps Socialism

WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT!!!!????

This is the question you may be asking yourself this morning. Is America just a racist country? Are we going to become totally isolationist? Did we start building The Wall yet? Did we just elect a cartoon character?

No, No, No, and No.

The answer is that the American people chose capitalism over socialism. Despite what you hear in the news, the American people understand that this economy is a government constructed mirage. The 4.9% unemployment rate is a mirage. Dow 18,000 is a mirage. 0% interest rates are a mirage.

If you stayed up until 3:30 am last night like me, you would have witnessed an 800 point collapse in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The market is down only 200 points right now, but it is going to be a volatile day. So, from an investing stand point, it is very important to understand why. It is NOT because Trump is going to start trade wars. It is NOT because Trump is going to alienate our allies. It is NOT because Trump is going to start bombing everyone.

The reason the market is down is because The Fed is now going to start raising rates aggressively. Janet Yellen is a Democrat, and like I told you before the election the Democrats start their 2020 election campaign today. They will be unified in their strategy to make Trump look bad. The 10 year U.S. Treasury Bonds are approaching 2% this morning, which is a 6 month high. This is the place you need to focus your investing energy for the rest of the year.

Now, make no mistake. Trump is a Capitalist, and Capitalism is GOOD for the stock market. Corporate regulations will be reduced, taxes will be reduced, and in the long term this economy will take off. But, first the mirage economy we have now will have to be broken down. It has to be torn down and rebuilt. And that is what Trump will do. So in the short term I expect to see a sizable decline in U.S. equity prices.

I would recommend a very conservative portfolio for the next 3 to 6 months. But, at some point in 2017, there will be an amazing buying opportunity. I would move to cash today and wait for this buying opportunity.