在劳动投入和资本投入减少的影响下，9月新经济指数再次降到30以下。
10月2日，财新智库和BBD联合发布数据显示，9月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）录得29.6，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为29.6%。
2017年以来，NEI指数波动较大，按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月下降3.7个百分点，指数再次跌到30以下。本月NEI的下降主要来自劳动和资本的减少。
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。
9月NEI的下降主要来自劳动投入和资本投入的减少。资本投入指数近半年波动较大，在经过连续三个月的上升后在本月有大幅下降，从2017年8月的38.9下降至本月的24.6，环比下降14.3。
劳动力投入指数平稳发展，本月有小幅下降，指数录得29.8。
科技投入指数近五个月呈缓慢上升趋势，本月科技投入指数再次上升，科技投入指数录得36.3，达到有史以来的最高值。
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库和数联铭品与北京大学国家发展研究院合作研发，每月2日上午10：00发布上月数据。
新经济指数旨在度量中国经济转型中新经济相对于传统经济或旧经济的活跃程度。新经济指数覆盖了节能与环保业、新一代信息技术与信息服务产业、生物医药产业、高端装备制造产业、新能源产业、新材料产业、新能源汽车产业、高新技术服务与研发业、金融服务与法律服务等10个类别。（财新网记者 李雨谦）
2017年9月
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数
一、指数概览
2017年9月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）录得29.6，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为29.6%。2017年以来，NEI指数波动较大，按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月下降3.7个百分点，指数再次跌到30以下（图1）。本月NEI的下降主要来自劳动和资本的减少。
NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产。其次，可持续的较快增长。第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月）》。
二、主要分项指标
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2017年9月NEI的下降主要来自劳动投入和资本投入的减少。资本投入指数近半年波动较大，在经过连续三个月的上升后在本月有大幅下降，从2017年8月的38.9下降至本月的24.6，环比下降14.3。劳动力投入指数平稳发展，本月有小幅下降，指数录得29.8。科技投入指数近五个月呈缓慢上升趋势，本月科技投入指数再次上升，科技投入指数录得36.3，达到有史以来的最高值（图2）。
劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化绝对值分别为-0.2，-5.0，和1.5个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2017年9月NEI变化的贡献值为-3.7（图3）。
分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2017年9月为总指数贡献了9.1个百分点；本月名次上升最快的行业为新能源产业，贡献了4.9个百分点，排名第二，也是2016年来贡献率最高的一次；高端装备制造产业贡献值排名第三，本月贡献3.4个百分点（图4）。
三、新经济就业
2017年9月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平比上月略微上升，为每月9500元，较上月增长187元（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。
2017年9月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例略微下降，从29.4下降为28.4，同时新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重略有上升，为31.2%。这意味着新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平保持稳定，2017年9月新经济入职工资“溢价”为10%，高于上月4%（图6）。近半年来，新经济行业的平均工资溢价总体呈上升趋势，逐渐回升到2016年10%的平均水平。
四、新增公司占比情况
使用新增企业数据，我们可以对各行业新增企业占总新增企业比重进行监测，见图7。
排名上升的行业包括以下几类——建筑，从去年9月的第21名上升至2017年9月的第17名，占比上升31.8%；工程，从2016年9月的第9名上升至2017年9月的第5名，占比上升12.1%；房地产，从2016年9月的第25名上升至2017年9月的第22名，占比上升261.1%。这些关键词变化说明主要来源为政府投资的建筑类投资已经重新上升。此外，部分轻资产行业的投资也出现了上升，最具代表性的行业为网络科技，从2016年9月的第24名上升至第8名，占比上升162.8%，成为本月行业排名增长最快的行业；文化行业从2016年9月的第12名上升至2017年9月的第9名，占比上升12.7%；咨询行业从2016年9月的第8名上升至2017年9月的第6名，占比上升2.6%；教育行业，从2016年9月的第15名上升至2017年9月的第13名，占比上升8.7%。
排名下降的行业包括以下几类——建材，从2016年9月的第7名下降至2017年9月的第16名，占比下降44%，是本月排名和占比下降最多的行业；装饰，从2016年9月的第5名下降至2017年9月的第7名，占比下降16.6%；销售，从2016年9月的第14名下降至2017年9月的第15名，占比增加0.8%；餐饮，从2016年9月的第10名下降至2017年9月的第11名，占比下降6.7%；农业，从2016年9月的第16名下降至2017年9月的第21名，占比下降7.1%；种植业，从2016年9月的第23 名下降至第24名，占比上升6.1%；养殖，从去年9月的第22名下降为第25名，占比增加3.6%。这些基础设施和传统行业的投资热度趋于下降。
五、从各大机场流量看经济活力
本月我们延续用机场流量分析方式对机场流量数据进行跨年度分析，比较的对象为2017年9月和2016年9月的各大机场流量数据。
我们将2017年9月平均每天的人口净流入量减去2016年9月平均每天的人口净流入量，并按照两者差的绝对值进行排序，得到了净流入增加量最快城市与净流入减少量最快城市（图8）。
由图可见，净流入量增加最大的城市是北京、广州、成都、南昌和深圳；这些城市保持了对人口吸引力上升势头，也显示了较好的经济活力。
深圳的航班净流入增加量为2037，排名第五，在航班净流入人口增加量上首次进入前十名。成都、昆明维持了2016年以来的强势人口吸引力，成为西南地区的亮点。
在净流入量减少最多的城市中，杭州、武汉、长沙、桂林、哈尔滨的净流出量相对较大；从侧面呈现出这些地区对人口的吸引力较同期有所下降。
六、从劳动力数据看投资复苏
本月，我们继续使用劳动力大数据对目前的投资进行分析，使用中国每月的房地产开发投资完成额当月值与劳动力数据建筑类就业人员的需求占比进行比较。2017年个别月份的建筑类就业相关人员预测稍有偏差，但从整体来看仍然印证了我们的大数据指标准确性，8月的建筑类就业人员占比为7.77%，环比下降0.72%，同时8月的房地产投资完成额当月值为9733亿元，高于7月的9151亿元，环比上升6.36%（图9）。
本月，建筑类劳动人员的需求有所下降，相关就业人员比例为6.27%，环比下降1.5%，考虑到该大数据指标在过去大部分时间段的准确性，我们预测下一个月的房地产投资数据会略微下降。
七、城市新经济排名
2017年9月新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图10所示，上海、广州、杭州、北京、南京排名前五。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。
图11计算了2017年3月到2017年9月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为北京、上海、杭州、深圳、厦门。
更多咨询敬请联络:
万事达卡
公共关系副总裁 吴焕宇
电话：+86-10-8519-9304
电邮：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com
财新智库
财新智库高级经济学家 王喆
电话：+86-10-8590-5019
电邮：zhewang@caixin.com
公关总监 马玲
电话：+86-10-8590-5204
电邮：lingma@caixin.com
BBD（数联铭品）
BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家 陈沁
电话：+86-28-6529-0823
电邮：chenqin@bbdservice.com
版权声明
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。
关于万事达卡
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BBD（数联铭品）是行业领先的大数据解决方案提供商，紧密围绕新经济，通过动态尽调、信用评级、风险定价和经济指数四个步骤，BBD提供从微观到宏观的大数据服务。详细信息，敬请浏览：http://www.bbdservice.com。
September 2017
MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index
Overview
In September 2017, the Mastercard Caixin-BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 29.6, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 29.6% of overall economic input activities that month, down 3.7 ppts from August, dropping below 30 again (Chart 1). The declining NEI was due to the decrease of labor and capital. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light; 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.
Primary Inputs
The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weight of the index, respectively. The decline in the September NEI reading came from the decrease of labor and capital inputs (Chart 2). Capital investment showed wide fluctuations in the recent half year ,and went down significantly after a three-month growth. It decreased from 38.9 last month to 24.6 this month. Labor input index was 29.8, decreasing slightly in September. Technology input index was 36.3, the highest level since 2016.
Percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were -0.2, -5.0, and 1.5 ppts, respectively. After accounting for the sum of their weights, the net NEI change was a -3.7 ppts decrease from August (Chart 3).
Looking at the sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 9.1 ppts to NEI. New Energy came second, contributing 4.9 ppts , the highest proportion and the fastest growth in ranking since 2016. Advanced Equipment Manufacturing ranked the third, contributing 3.4 ppts in September(Chart 4).
New Economy Employment
In September 2017, the average monthly entry level salary of the New Economy was RMB 9,500 per month, increasing from last month’s level of RMB 9,313 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job demands.
Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 28.4% of total hiring in September, lower than the previous month’s 29.4%. At the same time, the compensation share of New Economy sectors rose slightly to 31.2% and the average entry salary level of New Economy remained stable compared to national average entry wage level. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 10.0% as compared to economy-wide counterparts, increasing from 6.0% in August (Chart 6). In the recent half year, the average salary premium of the New Economy experienced a solid increase, back to 2016 average level at 10%.
Decomposition of New Established Enterprises
We use newly-established enterprises data to monitor new enterprises in sub-sectors (Chart 7).
Ranking up sub-sectors (from September 2016 to September 2017) include the following. Construction (No.21 to No.17, 31.8% increase in proportion), Engineering (No.9 to No.5, 12.1% increase in proportion), Real Estate (No.25 to No.22, 261.1% increase in proportion). Changes in key words above indicated that construction investment ,mainly driven by government, started to rise again. Moreover, some industries with light capital were developing. IT saw a ranking up to No.8 from No. 24 with a proportional increase of 162.8 ppts, the fastest growth sector in terms of ranking in September. Culture saw a ranking up to No.9 from No.12 with a proportional increase of 12.7%. Consulting saw a ranking up to No.6 from No.8 with a proportional increase of 2.6%. Education saw a ranking up to No.13 from No.15 with a proportional increase of 8.7%.
Ranking down sub-sectors (from September 2016 to September 2017) include the following. Construction (No.7 to No.16, 44.0% decrease in proportion, the largest drop this month), Decoration (No.5 to No.7, 16.6% decrease in proportion), Sales (No.14 to No.15, 0.8% increase in proportion), Catering (No.10 to No.11, 6.7% decrease in proportion), Agriculture (No.16 to No.21, 7.1% decrease in proportion), Farming (No.23 to No.24, 6.1% increase in proportion), Breeding (No.22 to No.25, 3.6% increase in proportion). The investment in infrastructure and traditional industry started cooling off.
Economic Activities Based on Major Airport Traffic
As usual, we explore airports traffic data and compare passengers inflow of major airports in September 2017 and September 2016.
We calculate the changes of daily net passengers inflow average by subtracting daily net passengers inflow average in Sep16 from that in Sep17. Based on this methodology, cities with the fastest increases in net inflows are Beijing, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Nanchang and Shenzhen, whose prosperous economy keeps attracting people and where we witnessed increased economic activities(Chart 8). Shenzhen ranked number 5th in September, the first time in the top ten. Southwestern cities like Chengdu and Kunming kept attracting people since 2016.
Cities with the fastest decreases in net inflows are Hangzhou, Wuhan, Changsha, Guilin, and Harbin. This shows the attractiveness of these cities went down during the past year.
Recovery in Investment Based on Employment Data
We use monthly completed investment in real estate development and demand for construction employees to analyze the current state of investment (Chart 9). The demand for construction employees and completed investment in real estate development showed a similar trend. They synchronized in most times, although diverging in several months. In August 2017, ratio of demand for contruction employees reached 7.77%, a decrease by 0.72% from 8.49% in July. At the same time, the completed investment in real estate development in August was RMB 973.3 billion, an increase from RMB 915.1 billion in July, or a 6.36% MoM increase.
This month starts seeing a decrease in demand for construction employees, reaching the level at 6.27%, with a 1.5% MoM decrease. Given the historical accuracy of the index, we predict that real estate investment decreases next month.
City Rankings of the New Economy
Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities are shown in Chart 10. The top five cities are Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Beijing and Nanjing. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past 6 months.
Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between March 2017 and September 2017. The top five cities are Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and Xiamen.
For further information please contact:
MasterCard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Vice President of Public Relations
Tel：+86-10-8519-9304
Email：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com
Caixin Insight Group
Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist
Tel：+86-10-8590-5019
Emails：zhewang@caixin.com
Ma Ling, Public Relations
Tel：+86-10-8590-5204
Email：lingma@caixin.com
BBD
Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist
Tel：+86-28-6529-0823
Emails：chenqin@bbdservice.com
The MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.
About Caixin
Caixin Media is China's leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit www.caixin.com.
About MasterCard
MasterCard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. MasterCard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MasterCardAP and @MasterCardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.
About BBD (Business Big Data)
BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.
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2017年5月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数
