主要在资本投入、科技投入和劳动力投入回升的带动下，6月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）小幅回升。
7月2日，财新智库和BBD联合发布数据显示，6月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）为29.3，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为29.3%。按可比口径计算，6月NEI比上月上升1.1个百分点，仍未回升到2017年1至4月的指数水平。
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。
6月NEI的上升来自劳动投入、资本投入和科技投入三方面的综合回升。科技投入指数上升最快，从2017年5月的23.6上升为25.1。资本投入指数在近半年中的波动较大，在经过两个月的连续下降后，6月出现反弹，回升至30.7。劳动力投入指数较5月略微上升，本月为30.6，重新回到指数为30以上的水平。
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库、数联铭品与北京大学国家发展研究院合作研发，每月2日上午10：00发布上月数据，旨在度量中国经济转型中新经济相对于传统经济或旧经济的活跃程度。（财新网记者 李雨谦）
2017年6月
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数
一、指数概览
2017年6月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）为29.3，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为29.3%。按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月上升1.1个百分点，仍未回升到2017年1至4月的指数水平（图1）。本月NEI的上升来自劳动、资本、创新三个子指数的同时反弹。
NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产。其次，可持续的较快增长。第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月）》。
二、主要分项指标
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2017年6月NEI的上升来自劳动投入、资本投入和科技投入三方面的综合回升。科技投入指数上升最快，从2017年5月的23.6上升为25.1。资本投入指数在近半年中的波动较大， 在经过两个月的连续下降后，6月出现反弹，回升至30.7。劳动力投入指数较5月略微上升，本月为30.6，重新回到指数为30以上的水平（图2）。
劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化绝对值分别为0.3，0.4，和0.4个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2017年6月NEI变化的贡献值为1.1（图3）。
分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2017年6月为总指数贡献了12.2个百分点；金融和法律服务业贡献了4.5个百分点，排名第二；生物医药产业贡献连续三个月排名第三，本月贡献3.3个百分点（图4）。
三、新经济就业
2017年6月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平比上月略有下降，为每月8975元，上月为9115元（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。
2017年6月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例有所上升，从28.9上升为29.5，同时新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重也略有上升，为31.7%，这意味着新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平保持稳定。2017年6月新经济入职工资“溢价”为7.2%，高于上月0.2%（图6）。近半年来，新经济行业的平均工资溢价分别在2月和4月出现了下降，其余时间都出现了稳步上升。
四、新增公司占比情况
使用新增企业数据，我们可以对各行业新增企业占总新增企业比重进行监测，见图7。
排名上升的行业包括以下几类——商务，从2017年5月的第12名上升至2017年6月的第11名，占比下降5.4%；教育，从第17名上升至第16名，占比下降9.9%；投资，从第23名上升至第18名，占比上升20.1%；管理，从第3名上升至第2名，占比上升0.9%；信息，从第9名上升至第8名，占比下降2.6%；网络，从第11名上升至第10名，占比下降6.6%。这些关键词变化说明轻资产类行业逐渐发展，这部分企业更注重市场的反应速度和资源的快速整合，用较少的资金投入获取较大的利润回报。
此外，机械，从第19名上升至第17名，占比下降4.8%；设备，从第14名上升至第13名，占比下降2.2%，这些行业的上升表示固定资产投资开始出现上升。
排名下降的行业包括以下几类——商贸，从第2名下降至第3名，占比下降39.8%；农业，从2017年6月的第15名下降至第25名，占比下降45.1%；传媒，从第16名下降至第19名，占比下降17.6%。
五、新岗位的变化
本月，我们挖掘企业招聘大数据中的“新岗位”数据。企业A在B城市招聘C岗位这三个要素定义了一个企业的招聘行为。在一个季度之内首次出现的招聘行为被称之为“新岗位”招聘。该指标在2016年11月的报告中首次出现，本月我们重复观测其进程。
“新岗位”招聘和“旧岗位”的招聘在许多方面都存在显著差异。“旧岗位”招聘意味着一个公司在某个城市持续招聘某个职位的人员，这意味着三种可能的情况，第一可能是这部分业务的持续增长，导致该公司会不断在某个城市的某个岗位上增加人员；第二是该职位的劳动力有着较高的离职率，因此需要不断进行补充新加入劳动力；第三是该岗位面临较高的成本压力，因此在给定工资的情况下难以招聘到令人满意的人员，只能进行持续招聘。而“新岗位”的招聘则说明企业、地点和职位三者中必然有一项是新的，或者是新成立的企业，或者是开拓了新市场，或者开拓了新的业务，这与“新经济指数”本身就存在内在联系。
从图8可以看到，在总招聘数据中，“新岗位”数量所占比重从2016年2月开始上升，在2016年3月达到顶峰，当月约60%的招聘都是“新岗位”招聘。该比例在2016年4月和5月仍然维持在40%以上，随后开始下降。从2016年7月开始，“新岗位”的比例稳定在35%到40%左右。
在2017年3月，该指标再次回到了42.8%，随后下降。根据两年共有的趋势判断，新岗位占比这一指标与春节息息相关，春节过后，随着业务开展，劳动力市场上会出现一批全新的需求。然而我们同时可以发现，2017年4月和5月的新岗位占比较去年同期有较大幅度下降，2017年6月新岗位占比较上月仍然有所回落，为20.2%。
六、从劳动力数据看投资复苏
在上个月，我们曾经使用劳动力大数据对目前的投资进行分析。本月，我们重复这套预测方案——使用中国每月的房地产开发投资完成额当月值与劳动力数据建筑类就业人员的需求占比进行比较。可以看到，在2017年5月的建筑类就业相关人员预测仍然印证了我们的大数据指标准确性，5月的建筑类就业人员占比为7.05%，比4月的6.75%有所上升，同时5月的房地产投资完成额当月值为9863.1亿元，高于4月的8439.7亿元，环比上升至16.9%。
本月，建筑类劳动人员的需求继续上升，达到了有史以来最高的7.9%，考虑到该大数据指标在过去大部分时间段的准确性，我们仍然预测下一个月的房地产投资数据会出现上升。
七、城市新经济排名
2017年6月新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图10所示，上海、北京、广州、重庆、深圳排名前五。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。
图11计算了2016年12月到2017年6月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为北京、上海、深圳、广州、杭州。
更多咨询敬请联络:
万事达卡
公共关系副总裁 吴焕宇
电话：+86-10-8519-9304
电邮：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com
财新智库
财新智库高级经济学家 王喆
电话：+86-10-85905019
电邮：zhewang@caixin.com
公关总监 马玲
电话：+86-10-8590-5204
电邮：lingma@caixin.com
BBD（数联铭品）
BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家 陈沁
电话：+86-28-65290823
电邮：chenqin@bbdservice.com
版权声明
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。
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June 2017
MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index
Overview
In June 2017, the Mastercard Caixin-BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 29.3, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 29.3% of overall economic input activities that month, up 1.1 ppts from May but well below its January to April average (Chart 1). The rising NEI was due to the rebound of labor, capital and technology.
New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light; 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.
Primary Inputs
The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weight of the index, respectively. The rise in the June NEI reading came from the comprehensive recovery of labor, capital and technology inputs. Technology input index rose fastest, increasing to 25.1 from 23.6 in May. Capital investment showed wide fluctuations in the recent half year; it bounced to 29.5 in June after declining in April and May. Labor input rose slightly from May. It was 30.6 this month, back to the level of 30+.
Percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were 0.3, 0.4 and 0.4 ppts, respectively. After accounting for the sum of their weightings, the net NEI change was a 1.1 ppts increase from May (Chart 3).
Looking at the sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 12.2 ppts to NEI. Financial & Legal Services came second, contributing 4.5 ppts. Biotech ranked the third in recent three months, contributing 3.3 ppts in June (Chart 4).
New Economy Employment
In June 2017, the average monthly entry level salary of the New Economy was RMB 8,975 per month, dropping slightly from last month’s level of RMB 9,115 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job demands.
Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 29.5% of total hiring in June, a rise from the previous month’s 28.9%. At the same time, the compensation share of New Economy sectors rose slightly to 31.7%, which meant the average entry salary level of New Economy remained stable compared to national average entry wage level. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 7.2% as compared to economy-wide counterparts, an increase from 7.0% in May (Chart 6). In the recent half year, the average salary premium of the New Economy saw a decrease in Feb and Apr, respectively, while other months experienced a solid increase.
Decomposition of New Established Enterprises
We use newly-established enterprises data to monitor new enterprises in sectors(Chart 7).
Ranking up sub-sectors (from May 2017 to June 2017) include the following. Business (No.12 to No.11, 5.4% decreases in proportion), Education (No.17 to No.16, 9.9% decreases in proportion), Investment (No.23 to No.18, 20.1% increases in proportion), Management (No.3 to No.2, 0.9% increases in proportion), Information (No.9 to No.8, 2.6% decreases in proportion), Internet (No.11 to No.10, 6.6% decreases in proportion). Key words in the change of rankings indicated that industries with light capital was developing, enterprises in which focused on the market reaction speed and the rapid integration of resources, and enjoyed a higher return-on-investment ratio.
Moreover, Machinery saw a ranking-up to No.17 from No.19 with a proportion decrease of 4.8 ppts. Equipment also saw a ranking-up to No.13 from No.14 with a proportion decrease of 2.2 ppts. The ranking-ups of Machinery and Equipment indicated that investment in fixed assets began to rise.
Ranking down sub-sectors (from May 2017 to June 2017) include the following. Trade (No.2 to No.3, 39.8% decreases in proportion), Agriculture (No.15 to No.25, 45.1% decreases in proportion), Media (No.16 to No.19, 17.6% decreases in proportion).
Changes in New Job Openings
In June we explored new job openings based on recruitment data. Recruitment involves three elements: enterprise, location/city, and opening. An opening is defined as a “New Job Opening” when it’s first posted in a span of three months. This indicator was used in our report last month.
New job openings are of significant difference from “old” job opening in many aspects. Existence of old job opening indicates that the opening has been posted before in the same city. Three potential scenarios arise here: 1) the continuous growth in related business requires an increase in personnel; 2) the high turnover rate of employees requires new labor input; 3) previous offers are not good enough to attract qualified candidates. A new job opening implies that one of three elements (enterprise, location/city, and opening) is new, at least. In this sense, new job openings are closely related to New Economy Index.
Chart 8 shows that the ratio of new job openings to total job openings rose rapidly from January 2016 and climaxed in March 2016, when approximately 60% of the job openings were new. The ratio stayed above 40% in April and May 2016 and dropped afterwards. From July 2016 on, the ratio stabilized around 35% to 40%.
The ratio climbed to 42.8% in March 2017, and dropped again afterwards. We might conclude that the pattern of ratio in spring is related to Chinese New Year. Generally, labor market demands peaks after Spring Festival. However, the ratio experienced a significant YoY decrease in April and May 2017. In June 2017, the proportion of new jobs was 20.2%, slightly lower than last month.
Recovery in Investment Based on Employment Data
We use monthly completed investment in real estate development and demand for construction employees to analyze the current state of investment. As shown in Chart 9, the two indexes showed a similar trend. They diverged in April 2017 but synchronized afterwards. In May 2017, ration of demand for construction employees reached 7.05%, an increase by 0.3% from 6.75% in April. At the same time, completed investment in real estate development in May was RMB 986.31 billion, an increase from RMB 843.97 billion in April, or a 16.9% MoM increase.
This month continues seeing an increase in demand for construction employees, reaching its highest level in history at 7.90% (Chart 9). Given the historical accuracy of the index, we still predict that real estate investment increases next month.
City Rankings of the New Economy
Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities are shown in Chart 10. The top five cities are Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, and Shenzhen. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past 6 months.
Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between Dec 2016 and June 2017. The top five cities are Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhe, Guangzhou and Hangzhou。
For further information please contact:
MasterCard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Vice President of Public Relations
Tel：+86-10-8519-9304
Email：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com
Caixin Insight Group
Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist
Tel：+86-10-85905019
Emails：zhewang@caixin.com
Ma Ling, Public Relations
Tel：+86-10-8590-5204
Email：lingma@caixin.com
BBD
Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist
Tel：+86-28-65290823
Emails：chenqin@bbdservice.com
The MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.
About Caixin
Caixin Media is China's leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit www.caixin.com.
About MasterCard
MasterCard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. MasterCard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MasterCardAP and @MasterCardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.
About BBD (Business Big Data)
BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.
