【财新网】（记者 张娱）受资本投入上升影响，2018年7月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）小幅回升。
8月2日，财新智库和BBD联合发布数据显示，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）7月录得30.6，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为30.6%，较6月上升1.4个百分点。
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。
从分项指标来看，资本投入上升是7月NEI出现回升的主因。资本投入指数上月结束自2018年3月以来缓慢下降的趋势，7月录得36.8，环比上升4.8个百分点；科技投入指数自今年3月起开始下滑，7月录得 26.6，环比下降0.8个百分点；劳动力投入指数也延续其缓慢下降趋势，本月录得27.6，环比微降0.2个百分点。
从行业贡献度来看，新一代信息技术与信息服务产业对NEI占比最大，7月贡献了13.5个百分点。生物医药产业上升最快，贡献4个百分点，位列第二。体育文化和娱乐业贡献率排名下降最剧烈，从上月的第二名降至本月第五名，贡献2.4个百分点。
7月新经济行业入职平均月工资为10357元，较上月下降12元。新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例略有下降，且新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重也有所下降。最近一年新经济行业的平均工资溢价显著低于2017年上半年，且7月创下有数据以来的新低。
前期报告分析发现，普工和操作工招聘数量同比增长与工业增加值同比增长呈现同向运动。近期普工和操作工的招聘数量增速下降，工业生产正处于下行趋势，这与近期工业企业利润不断上升存在反差。报告统计了在不同时间段内，各类规模企业对就业的吸纳作用发现，过去一年内，小企业相对于大企业的就业吸纳能力出现明显萎缩，从2017年下半年开始，规模最大的企业对劳动力的吸纳比例从13%左右跃升至22%；而规模最小的40%企业则从48%下降至37%。
按照企业控股类型来看，私人企业就业吸纳比例下降最快，从60%下降到今年3月的46%，最近有所回升；而国有控股企业则出现显著上升。报告称，过去一年内，国有企业对私营企业有显著的挤出作用，这与当前整体工业增加值不断下降，而国有企业工业利润却在上升的现象相吻合。
按地区来看，2018年1月到7月，广州、北京、上海、深圳、南京在城市NEI排名中排行前五。
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库、成都数联铭品科技公司与北京大学国家发展研究院合作研发，每月2日上午10：00发布上月数据。
新经济指数旨在度量中国经济转型中新经济相对于传统经济或旧经济的活跃程度。新经济指数覆盖了节能与环保业、新一代信息技术与信息服务产业、生物医药产业、高端装备制造产业、新能源产业、新材料产业、新能源汽车产业、高新技术服务与研发业、金融服务与法律服务、体育文化和娱乐等10个类别，超过140个行业。
2018年7月
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数
一、指数概览
2018年7月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）录得30.6，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为30.6%。2017年以来，NEI指数波动较大，按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月上升1.4个百分点（图1）。本月NEI的上升主要来自资本投入的上升。
NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产；其次，可持续的较快增长；第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月）》。
二、主要分项指标
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2018年7月NEI的上升主要来自资本投入的上升。科技投入指数从2018年3月开始下降，本月指数录得26.6，环比下降0.8。资本投入指数从2018年3月以来缓慢下降，2018年6月开始回升，本月指数录得36.8，环比上升4.8。劳动力投入指数自2017年7月以来持续缓慢下降，本月指数录得27.6，环比微降0.2（图2）。
劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化绝对值分别为-0.1，1.7，和-0.2个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2018年7月NEI变化的贡献值为1.4（图3）。
分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2018年7月为总指数贡献了13.5个百分点；本月名次上升最快的行业为生物医药产业，贡献率为4.0个百分点，位列第二名；体育文化和娱乐业贡献率排名下降最多，从上月的第二名下降至本月第五名，贡献率为2.4个百分点（图4）。
三、新经济就业
2018年7月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平环比下降，为每月10357元，较上月下降12元（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。
2018年7月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例略有下降，为27.1%，同时新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重也有所下降，为28.1%，这意味着新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平出现下降。2018年7月新经济入职工资“溢价”为3.6%，低于上月4.3%（图6）。最近一年新经济行业的平均工资溢价总体显著低于2017年上半年新经济行业的平均工资溢价，本月新经济行业平均工资溢价为指数自发布以来最低值。
四、从劳动力需求数据看不同类型企业发展趋势
在前几个月的分析中，我们从普工和操作工的数量变化印证了工业生产的下降，但最近一些数据则让人感到自相矛盾——规模以上工业企业的利润还在不断上升。为了解释这个矛盾，本月新经济指数报告仍然从大数据的角度给出一些证据。
图7显示了不同时间各类规模企业对就业的吸纳作用，我们将企业按照规模从小到大划分成20个档次，1表示规模最小的5%企业，20表示规模最大的5%企业，数字编号越大，代表企业规模越大。可以看到，从2017年下半年开始，规模最大的企业对劳动力的吸纳比例从13%左右上升至22%，而规模最小的40%的企业的就业吸纳规模从48%下降到37%。小企业相对于大企业的萎缩，是在过去一年内发生的最显著现象。
而在图8中，我们将企业按照其控股类型进一步划分为国有、集体、私人、港澳台资、外资这5个类型，并观察他们每一类的就业吸纳状况。可以看到，私人企业是在过去一年内就业吸纳比例下降最快的部分，从全社会的60%下降到今年3月的46%，最近才有所回升。而国有控股企业则出现了显著的上升。集体、外资和港澳台的就业比例则基本没有改变。因此，国有企业对私营企业的挤出，是在过去一年中发生的最显著现象，这也与当前整体工业增加值不断下降，而国有企业工业利润却在上升的现象相吻合。
而随国有企业对私营企业的挤出一同到来的，是最近一季度不同企业的工资水平都出现了下降，其中国有企业下降的幅度最大（图9）。同时，我们在新经济指数工资指数中也发现了连续两个月的工资水平下降。工资水平在一定程度上能够代表一个企业对未来经济活力的预期。这个现象说明挤出了私营企业的国有企业，并没有带来更高的企业活力，而是通过垄断的方式，提高了产出价格——如水泥价格——降低了要素投入的价格，进而获取了更高的利润水平。
五、城市新经济排名
2018年7月新经济总量城市排名前20名如图10所示，北京、上海、广州、深圳和南京排名前五。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。
图11计算了2018年1月到2018年7月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为广州、北京、上海、深圳、南京。
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BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家 陈沁
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电邮：chenqin@bbdservice.com
版权声明
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。
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July 2018
Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index
Overview
In July 2018, the Mastercard Caixin BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 30.6, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 30.6% of overall economic input activities that month, up 1.4 ppts from June (Chart 1). The rising NEI was due to the increase of capital input. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light, 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.
Primary Inputs
The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weights of the index, respectively. The rise in the July NEI reading came from the increase of capital input (Chart 2). Technology input index went down since March 2018, coming in at 26.6 this month, with 0.8 MoM decrease. Capital investment showed a slow downtrend since March 2018, but rebounding after June 2018. It continued to rise to 36.8 this month, with 4.8 MoM increase. Labor input index declined moderately since July 2017, dropping to 27.6 this month, with 0.2 MoM decrease.
Taking the weight into account, percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were -0.1, 1.7, and -0.2 ppts, respectively. The net NEI change was 1.4 ppts in total (Chart 3).
Looking at the sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 13.5 ppts to NEI. Biotech was the industry with fastest growth in July, contributing 4.0 ppts and ranking the second. Culture, Sports & Entertainment came fifth from second, the biggest drop in ranking, contributing 2.4 ppts in July (Chart 4).
New Economy Employment
In July 2018, the average monthly entry level salary of the New Economy was RMB 10,357 per month, decreasing from last month’s level of RMB 10,369 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job openings.
Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 27.1% of total hiring in July, lower than the previous month’s 27.3%. At the same time, the total compensation share of New Economy sectors decreased to 28.1%, which meant the average entry salary level of New Economy declined compared to the national average entry wage level. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 3.6% as compared to economy-wide counterparts, decreasing from 4.3% in June (Chart 6). In the recent year, the average salary premium of the New Economy was lower than the first half year of 2017 generally, and fell to the lowest point since the index published.
Growth of Different Enterprises Based on Employment Data
In the previous month, the declining industrial production was verified by the shrinking employment of general workers and operators. But it was reported by NBS that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size continued to rise. We compromise the dilemma using big employment data.
Chart 7 showed the job creation by enterprises of different sizes since January 2016. We categorized all industrial enterprises into 20 groups by scale, with the 95th percentile indicating the 5% largest companies. It can be seen that the largest 5% of enterprises created 22% of total job positions in July 2018, increasing from 13% in the second half of 2017. However, the bottom (the smallest) 40% ones absorbed 37% and 48% new employees in July 2018 and the second half of 2017, respectively. In the past year, the enterprises with smaller sizes shrank significantly compared to the larger ones.
In addition, we checked new employment data by enterprise ownership (Chart 8). In accordance with NBS system, we tagged enterprises by state-owned, collective-owned, private, funded by Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and foreign funded. In the past year, private enterprises created less jobs, decreasing from 60% in March 2017 to 46% in March 2018. Only in recent months did it show slight growth. However, the stated-owned ones experienced significant growth. The other three types remained stable. We conjectured that state-owned enterprises crowded out its private counterparts, which is consistent with the declining of industrial value-added and the rising of profits of the industrial state-owned enterprises.
With the crowd out effect, average salaries in different enterprises declined in recent quarter (Chart 9). Among them, average salaries in stated-owned enterprises experienced the biggest drop. Meanwhile, average entry-level salary in new economy declined for the last two months. The salary reflects the enterprises expectation of labor productivity as well as economic activity in future. In this respect, the state-owned enterprises are not optimistic. They earned profit by monopoly power, raising output prices and depressing input costs.
City Rankings of the New Economy
Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities were shown in Chart 10. The top five cities were Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Nanjing. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past 6 months.
Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between January 2018 and July 2018. The top five cities were Guangzhou, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Nanjing.
For further information please contact:
Mastercard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Director, Communications
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Email：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com
Caixin Insight Group
Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist
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Emails：zhewang@caixin.com
Ma Ling, Public Relations
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Email：lingma@caixin.com
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Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist
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Emails：chenqin@bbdservice.com
The Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.
About Caixin
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About Mastercard
Mastercard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. Mastercard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MastercardAP and @MastercardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.
About BBD (Business Big Data)
BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.
