在资本投入和科技投入回升的带动下，7月新经济指数也出现明显回升。
8月2日，财新智库和BBD联合发布数据显示，7月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）为31.5，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为31.5%。
按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月上升2.2个百分点，基本回升到2017年1至4月的指数水平（图1）。本月NEI的上升主要来自资本、科技两个子指数的反弹。
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。
7月NEI的上升来自资本投入和科技投入两方面的综合回升。科技投入指数上升最快，从2017年6月的25.1上升为31.6，上升6.5。资本投入指数在近半年中的波动较大，在经过两个月的连续下降后，6月出现反弹，7月继续回升，上升至32.7。
劳动力投入指数较6月略微下降，本月为30.3，指数继续维持在30左右的水平。
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数由财新智库、数联铭品与北京大学国家发展研究院合作研发，每月2日上午10：00发布上月数据，旨在度量中国经济转型中新经济相对于传统经济或旧经济的活跃程度。（财新网记者 李雨谦）
2017年7月
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数
一、指数概览
2017年7月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）为31.5，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为31.5%。按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月上升2.2个百分点，基本回升到2017年1至4月的指数水平（图1）。本月NEI的上升主要来自资本、科技两个子指数的反弹。
NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产。其次，可持续的较快增长。第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月）》。
二、主要分项指标
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2017年7月NEI的上升来自资本投入和科技投入两方面的综合回升。科技投入指数上升最快，从2017年6月的25.1上升为31.6，上升6.5。资本投入指数在近半年中的波动较大， 在经过两个月的连续下降后，6月出现反弹，7月继续回升，上升至32.7。劳动力投入指数较6月略微下降，本月为30.3，指数继续维持在30左右的水平（图2）。
劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化绝对值分别为-0.1、0.7和1.6个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2017年7月NEI变化的贡献值为2.2个百分点（图3）。
分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2017年7月为总指数贡献了12.2个百分点；高端装备制造产业贡献了4.0个百分点，排名第二，是近半年来排名最高的一次；金融和法律服务业贡献排名第三，本月贡献3.4个百分点（图4）。
三、新经济就业
2017年7月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平比上月略微上升，为每月9146元，较上月增长171元（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。
2017年7月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例有所下降，从29.5下降为29.2，同时新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重也略有下降，为31.4%。这意味着新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平保持稳定，2017年7月新经济入职工资“溢价”为7.6%，高于上月0.4%（图6）。2017年以来，新经济行业的平均工资溢价分别在2月和4月出现了下降，其余时间都出现了稳步上升，并且溢价均高于5%。
四、新增公司占比情况
使用新增企业数据，我们可以对各行业新增企业占总新增企业比重进行监测，见图7。
排名上升的行业包括以下几类——房地产，从2016年7月的第25名上升至2017年7月的第18名，占比上升80.5%；建筑，从去年7月的第19名上升至2017年7月的第16名，占比上升32.5%；建筑工程，从去年7月的第24名上升至2017年7月的第20名，占比上升58.9%。这些关键词变化说明建筑类投资已经开始重新上升，这部分投资大多来自于政府。此外，部分轻资产行业的投资也出现了上升，教育行业从2016年7月的第18名上升至2017年7月的第13名，占比上升37.6%；管理，从第4名上升至第3 名，占比上升21.7%；信息，从第13 名上升至第11 名，占比上升13.4%。
排名下降的行业包括以下几类——农业，从2016年7月的第14名下降至2017年7月的第21名，占比下降13.3%；电子商务，从2016年7月的第8名下降至2017年7月的第14名，占比下降27.9%；传播，从2016年7月的第15名下降至2017年7月的第19名，占比下降0.5%；投资，从2016年7月的第22名下降至2017年7月的第25名，占比上升18.8%；文化传媒，从2016年7月的第20 名下降至第23名，占比增加13.5%；服务从去年7月的第3名下降为第4名，占比上升11%。其中，除电子商务和农业的占比较去年有所下降，其他排名下降的行业占比均有所增加。
五、从各大机场流量看经济活力
本月我们延续2017年4月的机场流量分析方式对机场流量数据进行跨年度分析，比较的对象为2017年第二季度和2016年第二季度的各大机场流量数据。
首先，我们将2017年第二季度平均每天的人口净流入量减去2016年第二季度平均每天的人口净流入量，并按照两者差的绝对值进行排序，得到了净流入增加量最快城市与净流入减少量最快城市。（图8）
可以看到，净流入量增加最大的城市是北京、广州、重庆、成都和昆明，这些城市保持了对人口吸引力上升势头，也显示了较好的经济活力。在航班净流入量增加top10城市中，中西部地区的城市较多，中西部地区的经济活力逐渐增大。
重庆、成都维持了2016年以来的强势人口吸引力，成为西南地区的亮点；深圳和上海在航班净流入人口增加量上未能进入前十名。
在净流出量减少最多的城市中，哈尔滨、杭州、贵阳、厦门和海口的净流出量相对较大；哈尔滨航班净流出量减少最多，从侧面呈现出东北地区仍然缺少对人口的吸引力；三亚名列第四和第六，可能与这个旅游城市近一年来不断出现的负面消息有关。
六、从劳动力数据看投资复苏
本月，我们继续使用劳动力大数据对目前的投资进行分析，使用中国每月的房地产开发投资完成额当月值与劳动力数据建筑类就业人员的需求占比进行比较。可以看到，在2017年6月的建筑类就业相关人员预测仍然印证了我们的大数据指标准确性，6月的建筑类就业人员占比为7.9%，比5月的7.05%有所上升，同时6月的房地产投资完成额当月值为13015.3亿元，高于5月的9863.1亿元，环比上升至132%。
本月，建筑类劳动人员的需求继续上升，出现有史以来最高的8.49%，考虑到该大数据指标在过去大部分时间段的准确性，我们仍然预测下一个月的房地产投资数据会出现上升。
七、城市新经济排名
2017年7月新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图10所示，上海、北京、广州、杭州、重庆排名前五。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。
图11计算了2017年1月到2017年7月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为北京、上海、广州、杭州、深圳。
更多咨询敬请联络:
万事达卡
公共关系副总裁 吴焕宇
电话：+86-10-8519-9304
电邮：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com
财新智库
财新智库高级经济学家 王喆
电话：+86-10-85905019
电邮：zhewang@caixin.com
公关总监 马玲
电话：+86-10-8590-5204
电邮：lingma@caixin.com
BBD（数联铭品）
BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家 陈沁
电话：+86-28-65290823
电邮：chenqin@bbdservice.com
版权声明
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。
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July 2017
MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index
Overview
In July 2017, the Mastercard Caixin-BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 31.5, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 31.5% of overall economic input activities that month, up 2.2 ppts from June and back to January to April average level (Chart 1). The rising NEI was due to the rebound of capital and technology. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light; 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.
Primary Inputs
The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weight of the index, respectively. The rise in the July NEI reading came from the recovery of capital and technology inputs (Chart 2). Technology input index rose fastest, increasing to 31.6 from 25.1 in June. Capital investment showed wide fluctuations in the recent half year; it continued to rise to 32.7 after declining in April and May and rebounding in June. Labor input dropped slightly from June. It was 30.3 this month.
Percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were -0.1, 0.7, and 1.6 ppts, respectively. After accounting for the sum of their weights, the net NEI change was a 2.2 ppts increase from June (Chart 3).
Looking at the sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 12.2 ppts to NEI. Advanced equipment manufacturing came second, the highest rank in half a year, contributing 4.0 ppts. Financial & Legal Services ranked the third, contributing 3.4 ppts in July (Chart 4).
New Economy Employment
In July 2017, the average monthly entry level salary of the New Economy was RMB 9,146 per month, increasing from last month’s level of RMB 8,975 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job demands.
Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 29.2% of total hiring in July, lower than the previous month’s 29.5%. At the same time, the compensation share of New Economy sectors dropped slightly to 31.4%, which meant the average entry salary level of New Economy remained stable compared to national average entry wage level. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 7.6% as compared to economy-wide counterparts, a slight increase from 7.2% in June (Chart 6). In the recent half year, the average salary premium of the New Economy saw a decrease in Feb and Apr, respectively, while other months experienced a solid increase.
Decomposition of New Established Enterprises
We use newly-established enterprises data to monitor new enterprises in sub-sectors (Chart 7).
Ranking up sub-sectors (from July 2016 to July 2017) include the following. Real estate (No. 25 to No. 18, 80.5% increase in proportion), Construction (No. 19 to No. 16, 32.5% increase in proportion), Architectural Engineering (No. 24 to No. 20, 58.9% increase in proportion). The key words were associated with investment in construction, which were mainly drived by government. Moreover, some industries with light capital were developing. Education saw a ranking up to No. 13 from No. 18 with a proportional increase of 37.6 ppts. Management saw a ranking up to No. 3 from No. 4 with a proportional increase of 21.7 ppts. Information saw a ranking up to No. 11 from No. 13 with a proportional increase of 13.4 ppts.
Ranking down sub-sectors (from July 2016 to July 2017) include the following. Agriculture (No. 14 to No. 21, 13.3% decrease in proportion), E-commerce (No. 8 to No. 14, 27.9% decrease in proportion), Communication (No. 15 to No. 19, 0.5% decrease in proportion), Investment (No. 22 to No. 25, 18.8% increase in proportion), Media (No. 20 to No. 23, 13.5% increase in proportion), Service (No. 3 to No. 4, 11% increase in proportion). Noticeably, some ranking down sub-sectors saw an increase in proportions.
Economic Activities Based on Major Airport Traffic
This month, we explore airport traffic data and compare passengers inflow of major airport in 2Q17 and 2Q16.
We calculate the changes of daily net passengers inflow average by subtracting daily net passengers inflow average in 2Q16 from that in 2Q17. Based on this methodology, cities with the fastest increases in net inflows are Beijing, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu and Kunming, whose prosperous economy keeps attracting people (Chart 8). Among top 10 cities attracting more and more people are mid- and western Chinese cities, where we witnessed increased economic activities. Chengdu and Chongqing headlined the mid- and western cities but Shenzhen and Shanghai falled out of top list.
Cities with the fastest decreases in net inflows are Harbin, Hangzhou, Guiyang, Xiamen and Haikong. The lukewarm northeastern economy and negative news associated with tourist cities might contribute to the population outflows.
Recovery in Investment Based on Employment Data
We use monthly completed investment in real estate development and demand for construction employees to analyze the current state of investment (Chart 9). The demand for construction employees and completed investment in real estate development showed a similar trend. They diverged in April 2017 but synchronized afterwards. In June 2017, ratio of demand for construction employees reached 7.90%, a sharp increase by 0.85% from 6.75% in May. At the same time, completed investment in real estate development in June was RMB 1301.5 billion, an increase from RMB 986.3 billion in May, or a 32.0% MoM increase.
This month continues seeing an increase in demand for construction employees, reaching its historical highest level at 8.49%. Given the historical accuracy of the index, we still predict that real estate investment increases next month.
City Rankings of the New Economy
Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities are shown in Chart 10. The top five cities are Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Chongqing. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past 6 months.
Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between January 2017 and July 2017. The top five cities are Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Shenzhen.
For further information please contact:
MasterCard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Vice President of Public Relations
Tel：+86-10-8519-9304
Email：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com
Caixin Insight Group
Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist
Tel：+86-10-85905019
Emails：zhewang@caixin.com
Ma Ling, Public Relations
Tel：+86-10-8590-5204
Email：lingma@caixin.com
BBD
Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist
Tel：+86-28-65290823
Emails：chenqin@bbdservice.com
The MasterCard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.
About Caixin
Caixin Media is China's leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit www.caixin.com.
About MasterCard
MasterCard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. MasterCard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MasterCardAP and @MasterCardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.
About BBD (Business Big Data)
BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.
