【财新网】（记者 张娱）受资本投入下降影响，2018年8月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）出现下降。
财新智库和BBD9月2日联合发布数据显示，8月NEI录得29.1，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为29.1%，较7月下降1.5个百分点。
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。
从分项指标来看，资本投入下降是8月NEI出现回落的主因。资本投入指数近一年来波动较大，8月录得31.9，低于7月4.9个百分点；科技投入指数自今年3月起开始下滑，8月止跌回升，录得 28.1，上升1.5个百分点；劳动力投入指数连续两个月下降，录得27.3，比7月低0.3个百分点。
从行业贡献度来看，新一代信息技术与信息服务产业对NEI占比最大，8月贡献了9.8个百分点。新材料产业上升最快，贡献5.5个百分点，位列第二。生物医药产业贡献率排名下降最剧烈，从7月的第二名降至8月第四名，贡献2.9个百分点。
8月新经济行业入职平均月工资为10320元，较上月下降37元。8月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例略有下降，且新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重也有所下降，新经济行业平均工资溢价刷新有数据以来新低。
从劳动力需求来看，普工和操作工的招聘数量进一步下降，仅为2017年12月的一半左右，与工业增加值增速连续四个月下跌相吻合，但工业企业利润却逆势上升。报告分析认为，去产能带来价格上涨，同时大型企业的定价能力和利润正在挤压中小型工业的生存空间。
报告比较新岗位在每月招聘数据中所占比重发现，全国新岗位占比从2017年下半年起持续下降，目前已经从2017年6月的57%降至38%。分城市来看，深圳、北京两地新岗位下降速度较快，表明城市经济活力流失。
报告结合海关数据、美国对中国商品加征关税清单发现，今年2月以来出口制造业企业招聘数量一度同比增长较快，但5月起，对美出口占比较大且受加征关税影响较大的企业招聘数量连续四个月同比下降。7月对美出口产值占比高、征税影响低的企业招聘数量也出现负增长，贸易战对经济影响开始逐渐显现。
按地区来看，2018年2月到2018年8月，北京、广州、上海、深圳和南京在城市NEI排名中排行前五。
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库、成都数联铭品科技公司与北京大学国家发展研究院合作研发，每月2日上午10：00发布上月数据。
新经济指数旨在度量中国经济转型中新经济相对于传统经济或旧经济的活跃程度。新经济指数覆盖了节能与环保业、新一代信息技术与信息服务产业、生物医药产业、高端装备制造产业、新能源产业、新材料产业、新能源汽车产业、高新技术服务与研发业、金融服务与法律服务、体育文化和娱乐等10个类别，超过140个行业。
2018年8月
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数
一、指数概览
2018年8月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）录得29.1，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为29.1%。2017年以来，NEI指数波动较大，按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月下降1.5个百分点（图1）。本月NEI的下降主要来自资本投入的下降。
NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产；其次，可持续的较快增长；第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月）》。
二、主要分项指标
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2018年8月NEI的下降主要来自资本投入的下降。科技投入指数从2018年3月开始下降，本月指数止跌回升，录得28.1，环比上升1.5。资本投入指数近一年来波动较大，本月指数录得31.9，环比下降4.9。劳动力投入指数延续自2017年7月以来的下降态势，本月指数录得27.3，环比下降0.3（图2）。
劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化百分比分别为-0.1，-1.7，和0.4个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2018年8月NEI变化的贡献值为-1.5%（图3）。
分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2018年8月为总指数贡献了9.8个百分点；本月名次上升最快的行业为新材料产业，贡献率为5.5个百分点，位列第二名；生物医药产业排名下降最多，从上月的第二名下降至本月第四名，贡献率为2.9个百分点（图4）。
三、新经济就业
2018年8月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平环比下降，为每月10320元，较上月下降37元（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。
2018年8月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例26.9%，较上月下降了0.2个百分点，同时，新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重27.7%，较上月下降了0.4个百分点。新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平出现下降。2018年8月新经济入职工资“溢价”为3.1%，低于上月3.6%（图6）。本月新经济行业平均工资溢价刷新指数自发布以来的新低。
四、从劳动力需求数据看经济走势
随着新经济指数进一步下降，本月我们对实体经济的走势进行进一步深入研究，观察是什么原因导致了新经济被进一步挤出。在之前几个月的分析中，我们已经看到了在过去两年内中小型民营经济被大型国有经济挤出的现象，而从2017年四季度开始，中国经济下行趋势越发明显。
从图7可以看到，普工和操作工的招聘数量本月进一步下降，当前的数量仅为2017年12月的一半左右，该数据与工业增加值增速连续4个月下跌是相吻合的。但值得注意的是，正当工业增加值增速整体下降时，工业企业利润却在逆势上升，这一方面来自去产能之后的价格上涨，另一方面由于大型工业的定价能力和利润正在进一步挤压中小型工业的生存空间。
其次，我们从新岗位的角度度量各个城市的经济活力，我们将一个公司在某一个城市招聘的一个职位定义为一个“岗位”，当一个岗位在过去90天内没有出现时，我们称它为一个“新岗位”。图8列出了新岗位在每个月招聘数据中所占比重，从全国来看，新岗位的占比从2017年下半年起就在下降，目前已经从2017年6月的57%下降到了38%。分城市来看，上海、广州两地的新岗位占比下降幅度不大，成都其次，而深圳、北京两地新岗位下降速度较快，显示了城市经济活力的流失。
五、从不同类型企业招聘看贸易战影响
图9关注贸易战的进行状况。我们参考“2016年分笔海关出口数据”和“2018年美国对中国商品加征关税清单”，按照“制造业企业出口美国产值占比”（0-50%、50%-100%）和“平均关税税率”（0-10%、10%-20%、20%以上），将全部出口制造业企业分为6类（图9-1）。
我们在图9-2可以看到这部分企业的招聘同比变化，虽然在今年的2月份，这部分对美出口企业经历了一段较快增长，但从5月开始，对美国出口占比较大且受到税赋影响较重的企业招聘数量开始同比下降，目前已经连续4个月同比下降。从7月开始，高对美出口低征税企业也进入负增长。贸易战对经济的影响也开始逐渐显现。
六、城市新经济排名
2018年8月新经济总量城市排名前20名如图10所示，北京、上海、深圳、广州和南京排名前五。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。
图11计算了2018年2月到2018年8月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为北京、广州、上海、深圳和南京。
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财新智库高级经济学家 王喆
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万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。
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August 2018
Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index
Overview
In August 2018, the Mastercard Caixin BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 29.1, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 29.1% of overall economic input activities that month, down 1.5 ppts from July (Chart 1). The declining NEI was due to the decrease of capital input. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light, 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.
Primary Inputs
The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weights of the index, respectively. The decline in the August NEI reading came from the decrease of capital input (Chart 2). Capital investment fluctuated widely in the recent year, coming in at 31.9 this month, with 4.9 MoM decrease. Technology input index went down since March 2018, but rebounded to 28.1 this month, with 1.5 MoM increase. Labor input index declined moderately since July 2017, dropping to 27.3 this month, with 0.3 MoM decrease.
Taking the weight into account, percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were -0.1, -1.7, and 0.4 ppts, respectively. The net NEI change was -1.5 ppts in total (Chart 3).
As for sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 9.8 ppts to NEI. Advanced Materials was the industry with fastest growth in August, contributing 5.5 ppts and ranking the second. Biotech came fourth from second, the biggest drop in ranking, contributing 2.9 ppts in August (Chart 4).
New Economy Employment
In August 2018, the average monthly entry level salary of the New Economy was RMB 10,320 per month, decreasing from last month’s level of RMB 10,357 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job openings.
Hiring in the New Economy sectors accounted for 26.9% of the total in August, lower than the previous month’s 27.1%. At the same time, the compensation share of New Economy sectors decreased to 27.7%, lower than the previous month’s 28.1%. The average entry salary level of New Economy declined accordingly compared to the national level. The entry level salary premium of the New Economy was 3.1% as compared to economy-wide counterparts, decreasing from 3.6% in July (Chart 6). The average salary premium of the New Economy in August was the lowest ever since the index was published.
Economic Trends Based on Employment Data
As NEI declined, we explored how the new economy was depressed. As we mentioned previously, one reason is the state-owned enterprises crowded out its private counterparts in the past two years and China’s macroeconomy faced downward pressure since the fourth quarter of 2017.
The employment of general workers and operators dropped further this month, decreasing to about half level of December 2017, which was consistent with the declining industrial value-added growth rate in the past four months (Chart 7). However, it was worth noting that the profits of the industrial enterprises continued to rise. This dilemma came from the price increase caused by supply side reform, from which the large-size companies benefited in market power and profits at cost of the small and medium-sized ones.
We evaluated city’s economic activity in terms of new jobs. A new job was defined as a job position not posted in the past 90 days. The overall share of new jobs among total hiring showed a downtrend since the second half of 2017, decreasing to 38% this month from 57% in June 2017 (Chart 8). It diverged city-wise though. The share of new jobs in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chengdu declined slightly, while that of Shenzhen and Beijing dropped rapidly, indicating the loss of economic activity.
The Impact of Trade War Based on Different Enterprise Employment
We focused on the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. Using detailed exporting data of 2016 and lists of American tariffs on Chinese products in 2018, we categorized all manufacturing enterprises exporting products to U.S. into six groups by the percentage of products exported to United States (0-50%,50%-100%) and the average tariff rates (0-10%,10%-20%, above 20%) as below (Chart 9-1).
Chart 9-2 showed employment changes of the above enterprises. All enterprises experienced a rapid growth in employment in February 2018, but employment share of the high-export & high-tariff group dropped sharply since May 2018. The high-export & low-tariff was losing employees since July as well. The trade war was making negative effect on employment.
City Rankings of the New Economy
Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities were shown in Chart 10. The top five cities were Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Nanjing. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past 6 months.
Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between February 2018 and August 2018. The top five cities were Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Nanjing.
For further information please contact:
Mastercard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Director, Communications
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Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist
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Ma Ling, Public Relations
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Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist
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The Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.
About Caixin
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Mastercard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. Mastercard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MastercardAP and @MastercardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.
About BBD (Business Big Data)
BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.
