【财新网】（记者 张娱）在科技投入上升的带动下，4月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）继续上升。财新智库和BBD 5月2日发布数据显示，4月NEI录得28.6，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为28.6%，高于3月0.3个百分点。
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。
从分项指标来看，科技投入回升是4月NEI上升的主因。科技投入指数自从2018年7月起波动上升，4月录得31.1，环比上升0.9个百分点；资本投入指数近一年来波动较大，4月录得28.7，环比上升0.2个百分点；劳动力投入指数近半年来波动下降，4月录得26.8，环比下降0.2个百分点。
从行业贡献度来看，新一代信息技术与信息服务产业在NEI中占比最大，4月贡献了11个百分点；名次上升最快的是科学研究和技术服务业，从第七名上升到第二名，贡献了5.9个百分点；名次下降最快的是节能与环保业，从第二名下降到第六名，贡献了1.6个百分点。
4月新经济行业入职平均月工资为10672元，较上月上升139元；新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例下降0.2个百分点，而新经济行业招聘总薪酬占比下降0.1个百分点，意味着新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平小幅上升。4月新经济入职工资“溢价”录得3.2%，高于上月0.4个百分点。
报告考察了2016年4月以来新公司注册情况。结果显示，这期间种植、培训、再生资源、艺术、及建筑工程等相关行业新增注册资本占比大幅增长；家具、汽车、机电设备、医疗器械、投资等行业新增注册资本占比下降幅度较大，这些行业的工资水平也有所下降。
从工资增长率来看，餐饮、交通运输设备制造业、农副食品加工业和家具制造业等传统制造业行业工资增速连续两年放缓；但装卸搬运及其他运输服务业、其他服务业等低技能劳动力服务业却逆势上升。
报告认为，过去两年传统重资产行业发展速度较快，劳动力需求和工资水平均有所增加；而以高人力资本和轻资产为特征的新经济行业，例如服务业和金融业，发展速度略有减缓，这与近几年新经济指数波动下跌的事实相吻合。
按地区来看，2018年10月至2019年4月，北京、杭州、苏州、厦门和南京在城市NEI排名中排行前五。
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库、成都数联铭品科技公司与北京大学国家发展研究院合作研发，每月2日上午10：00发布上月数据。
新经济指数旨在度量中国经济转型中新经济相对于传统经济或旧经济的活跃程度。新经济指数覆盖了节能与环保业、新一代信息技术与信息服务产业、生物医药产业、高端装备制造产业、新能源产业、新材料产业、新能源汽车产业、高新技术服务与研发业、金融服务与法律服务、体育文化和娱乐等10个类别，超过140个行业。
一、指数概览
2019年4月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）录得28.6，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为28.6%。2017年以来，NEI指数波动较大，按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月上升0.3个百分点（图1）。本月NEI的上升主要来自科技投入的上升。
NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产；其次，可持续的较快增长；第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月）》。
二、主要分项指标
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2019年4月NEI的上升主要来自科技投入的上升。科技投入指数从2018年7月开始波动回升，本月指数录得31.1，环比上升0.9。资本投入指数近一年来波动较大，本月指数录得28.7，环比上升0.2。劳动力投入指数近半年来波动下降，本月指数录得26.8，环比下降0.2（图2）。
劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化百分比分别为-0.1，0.1，和0.2个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2019年4月NEI变化的贡献值为0.2%（图3）。
分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2019年4月为总指数贡献了11个百分点；本月名次上升最快的是科学研究和技术服务业，从上月的第七名上升到本月的第二名，为总指数贡献了5.9个百分点；本月名次下降最快的是节能与环保业，从上月的第二名下降到本月的第六名，为总指数贡献了1.6个百分点（图4）。
三、新经济就业
2019年4月，新经济行业入职平均工资为每月10672元，较上月上升139元（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。
2019年4月，新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例较上月下降0.2%，同时新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重下降0.1%，这意味着新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平小幅上升。2019年4月新经济入职工资“溢价”为3.2%，高于上月2.8%（图6）。本月新经济行业平均工资溢价有所回升。
四、从劳动力数据看经济走势
本月新经济指数再次回升0.3%，整体经济呈向好趋势。然而正如我们之前的预测，经济增长出现了行业分化。本月我们从以下角度来讨论分化的特征和原因。
从新公司注册情况来看（图7），2019年4月，种植、培训、再生资源、艺术、及建筑工程等相关行业的新增注册资本占比较2016年4月大幅增长。但有趣的是，在种植和养殖类企业新增注册资本占比大幅上升时，农业占比却出现回落。新增注册资本占比下降幅度较大的行业包括家具、汽车、机电设备、医疗器械、投资等，这些行业的工资水平也有所下降。
我们使用2013年经济普查数据与招聘数据，计算了2017年到2018年和2018年到2019年的工资增长率（图8），可以看到，越接近图像第三象限的行业，其增长越慢，其中餐饮、交通运输设备制造业、农副食品加工业和家具制造业等属于连续两年增长都比较缓慢的行业。在传统制造业工资增速放缓的同时，装卸搬运及其他运输服务业、其他服务业等以低技能劳动力为主要投入的服务业却逆势上升。
为什么会有这种情况呢？在图9中，我们根据每个行业的资本劳动比，将企业从小到大划分为20类，画出了这20类企业自前一年5月至当年4月的平均月度招聘数量占比。近两年，资本劳动比率较高的企业招聘占比明显上升，而资本劳动比率较低的企业招聘占比大都不如2016年和2017年的水平。
综合来看，过去两年间，传统重资产行业发展速度较快，劳动力需求和工资水平都有所增加，而以高人力资本和轻资产为特征的新经济行业，例如服务业和金融业，发展速度略有减缓，这与近几年新经济指数波动下跌的事实相吻合。
五、城市新经济排名
2019年4月，新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图10所示，北京、上海、深圳、广州和杭州排名前五。
排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。
图11计算了2018年10月到2019年4月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为北京、杭州、苏州、厦门、南京。
在每个月的新经济总量排名和新经济占比排名以外，我们利用城市的房价、最低工资水平和人均可支配收入构建了城市综合成本指数，并利用该指数调整新经济指数中的劳动力占比，进而更新城市新经济排名（图12）。经调整后的新经济排名前五位的城市为北京、上海、深圳、成都和杭州，重庆、南京和广州紧随其后。相比两个排名结果，成都、重庆排名有所上升，而广州排名有所下降，这正是城市生活成本和便利性对人口流动和新经济发展的影响。
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电邮：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com
财新智库
财新智库高级经济学家 王喆
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电邮：zhewang@caixin.com
公关总监 马玲
电话：+86-10-8590-5204
电邮：lingma@caixin.com
BBD（数联铭品）
BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家 陈沁
电话：+86-28-65290823
电邮：chenqin@bbdservice.com
版权声明
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。
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April 2019 Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index
Overview
In April 2019, the Mastercard Caixin BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 28.6, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 28.6% of overall economic input activities that month, up 0.3 ppts from March (Chart 1). The rising NEI was due to the increase of technology input. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light, 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.
Primary Inputs
The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weights of the index, respectively. The rising in the April NEI reading came from the increase of technology input (Chart 2). Technology input index was on an uptrend since July 2018, coming in at 31.1 this month, with 0.9 MoM increase. Capital input fluctuated widely in the recent year, rebounding to 28.7 this month, with 0.2 MoM increase. Labor input index showed a stable trend in recent half year, decreasing slightly to 26.8 this month, with 0.2 MoM decrease.
Taking the weights into account, percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were -0.1, 0.1, and 0.2 ppts, respectively. The net NEI change was 0.2 ppts in total (Chart 3).
As for sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 11.0 ppts to NEI. Science Research and Hi-tech Services was the industry with fastest growth in April, contributing 5.9 ppts and ranking the second. Energy Conservation & Environment Protection came sixth from second, the biggest drop in ranking, contributing 1.6 ppts in April (Chart 4).
New Economy Employment
In April 2019, the average monthly entry-level salary of the New Economy was RMB 10,672, increasing from last month’s level of RMB 10,533 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job openings.
The ratio of hiring in the New Economy sectors to that in total dropped by 0.2%. At the same time, the compensation share of New Economy decreased by 0.1%. Accordingly, the average entry salary level of New Economy increased slightly compared to the whole economy. The entry-level salary premium of the New Economy increased slightly to 3.2% as compared to economy-wide counterparts (Chart 6).
Economic Recovery Based on Employment Data
In April, the NEI rose by 0.3%, showing the sign of economic recovery. Beyond that fact, we observed divergence of sectors as projected last month. Here are more discussions on the industry comparisons.
For the newly established enterprises (Chart 7), the proportion of registered capital in Farming, Training, Renewable Sources, Arts and Construction Engineering increased significantly in April 2019, compared to April 2016. The industries with declining registered capital share included Furniture, Automobile, Machinery & Electrical Devices, Medical Instruments and Investment, which were also industries with decreasing salary. It was worth noting that Farming and Breeding were expanding when Agriculture shrank.
We explored the growth rate of salary from 2017 to 2018 and from 2018 to 2019 using the Third National Economic Census data in 2013 and the employment data (Chart 8). The southwest dots were the industries in which the salary grew slower over the two years. It’s apparent that the salary in Catering Trade, Transportation Equipment, Agricultural & Sideline Food Processing and Furniture Manufacturing increased slightly for two consecutive years. However, with the salary in traditional manufacturing sector grew slowly, the salary in service sector featured by unskilled labor rose rapidly, including Loading, Unloading, Carrying and Other Transport Services and Other Services.
We categorized all industrial enterprises into 20 groups by the capital to labor ratio and showed their average monthly employment proportions from last May to April (Chart 9). In last two years, enterprises with higher capital to labor ratio attracted more employees, while the enterprises with lower ratio were losing people compared to their capital intensive counterparts.
One feature of recent economic recovery was that the traditional high capital-to-labor ratio industries developed rapidly with increasing salary and employment, reflected partly in Chart 7 and Chart 8. The human capital intensive and capital light new economy sectors grew rather slow. The comparison was consistent with the down sloping New Economy Index series since 2017.
City Rankings of the New Economy
Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities were shown in Chart 10. The top five cities were Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile ranks of indicators for the city in the past six months.
Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between October 2018 and April 2019. The top five cities were Beijing, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Xiamen and Nanjing.
In addition, we showed the city rankings adjusted by living cost by taking housing price, minimum wage and disposable income per capita into account (Chart 12). After the adjustment, the top five cities were Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu and Hangzhou, following by Chongqing, Nanjing and Guangzhou. The difference of original and adjusted rankings lay in the rankings of Chengdu, Chongqing, and Guangzhou. Chengdu and Chongqing climbed up in the rankings due to low living cost and amenity on labor mobility and new economic development and vice versa in case of Guangzhou. Adjusted rankings will be published from this month on.
For further information please contact:
Mastercard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Director, Communications
Tel：+86-10-8519-9304
Email：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com
Caixin Insight Group
Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist
Tel：+86-10-85905019
Emails：zhewang@caixin.com
Ma Ling, Public Relations
Tel：+86-10-8590-5204
Email：lingma@caixin.com
BBD
Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist
Tel：+86-28-65290823
Emails：chenqin@bbdservice.com
The Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.
About Caixin
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About Mastercard
Mastercard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. Mastercard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MastercardAP and @MastercardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.
About BBD (Business Big Data)
BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.
