【财新网】（记者 张娱）受益于资本投入上升，6月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）出现回升。财新智库和BBD 7月2日联合发布数据显示，6月NEI录得30，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为30%，高于5月2个百分点，为2018年12月以来最高。
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。
从分项指标来看，资本投入上升是6月NEI回升的主因。资本投入指数近一年来波动较大，6月录得34.2，上升5.1个百分点。科技投入指数自2018年7月开始波动回升，6月录得29.1，上升0.8。劳动力投入指数近半年来比较稳定，6月录得26.8，与上月持平。
从行业贡献度来看，新一代信息技术与信息服务产业在NEI中占比最大，6月贡献了8.4个百分点；名次上升最快的是科学研究和技术服务业，从5月的第五名上升到6月的第二名，贡献了5.2个百分点；名次下降最快的是体育文化和娱乐业，从第二名下降到第四名，贡献了4.2个百分点。
6月新经济行业入职平均月工资为10867元，较上月上升91元；新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例下降0.03个百分点，但招聘总薪酬占比上升0.04个百分点，意味着新经济行业平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平上升。6月新经济入职工资“溢价”录得5.3%，高于5月0.3个百分点。
报告观察劳动力数据发现，应届生招聘结构在近两年出现了较大变化：平均起薪提高，但高薪岗位供给低于两年前。应届生平均起薪从2017年下半年的5070元左右上升至目前的5752元，但起薪超过1万元的应届生岗位占比在2018年1月达到峰值15.1%，此后出现下降，2019年6月仅为8.7%。
一般情况下，应届生招聘需求在每年4至5月和岁末年初较为旺盛。然而受经济形势影响，2018年4月至5月的招聘数量明显低于2017年同期，并且在下半年呈现下滑趋势，未出现高点。不过，2019年应届生招聘数量回升，5月达到2017年以来的峰值，招聘形势有所好转。
报告调查发现，民营企业招聘数量在近几年出现大幅波动。从同比增速来看，6月招聘数量增速从高到低依次为上市民营企业、2011年-2015年间成立的民营企业、2010年前成立的民营企业、2016年后成立的民营企业。这说明民营企业的恢复主要从老牌企业开始，新企业虽然招聘数量较多，但衰退后的恢复速度不及老企业。
按地区来看，2018年12月至2019年6月，北京、厦门、杭州、上海和济南在城市NEI排名中排行前五。
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库、成都数联铭品科技公司与北京大学国家发展研究院合作研发，每月2日上午10：00发布上月数据。
新经济指数旨在度量中国经济转型中新经济相对于传统经济或旧经济的活跃程度。新经济指数覆盖了节能与环保业、新一代信息技术与信息服务产业、生物医药产业、高端装备制造产业、新能源产业、新材料产业、新能源汽车产业、高新技术服务与研发业、金融服务与法律服务、体育文化和娱乐等10个类别，超过140个行业。
一、指数概览
2019年6月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）录得30.0，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为30.0%。2017年以来，NEI指数波动较大，按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月上升2.0个百分点（图1）。本月NEI的上升主要来自资本投入的上升。
NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产；其次，可持续的较快增长；第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月）》。
二、主要分项指标
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2019年6月NEI的上升主要来自资本投入的上升。资本投入指数近一年来波动较大，本月指数录得34.2，环比上升5.1。科技投入指数从2018年7月开始波动回升，本月指数录得29.1，环比上升0.8。劳动力投入指数近半年来比较稳定，本月指数录得26.8，环比持平（图2）。
劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化百分比分别为0.0、1.8和0.2个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2019年6月NEI变化的贡献值为2.0%（图3）。
分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2019年6月为总指数贡献了8.4个百分点；本月名次上升最快的是科学研究和技术服务业，从上月的第五名上升到本月的第二名，为总指数贡献了5.2个百分点；本月名次下降最快的是体育文化和娱乐业，从上月的第二名下降到本月的第四名，为总指数贡献了4.2个百分点（图4）。
三、新经济就业
2019年6月，新经济行业入职平均工资为每月10867元，较上月上升91元（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。
2019年6月，新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例较上月下降0.03%，同时新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重上升0.04%，这意味着新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平有所上升。2019年6月新经济入职工资“溢价”为5.3%，高于上月5.0%（图6）。本月新经济行业平均工资溢价继续回升。
四、从劳动力数据看经济走势
本月我们着重对各岗位招聘需求与工资、应届生招聘岗位、以及民营企业招聘情况进行分析。
随着高考的结束以及志愿填报的开始，岗位的工资和需求成为人们关注的话题。我们以“总监”为关键词，提取相关25个关键岗位的招聘情况，并观察其5年内的变化（图7）。5年来，需求上升幅度最大的岗位是供应链总监、策略发展总监以及平面设计总监。需求减少最快的岗位是市场总监、融资总监和证券总监。这和市场需求变化非常吻合。
应届生招聘的结构在最近两年出现了较大变化。应届生的平均起薪呈上升趋势，已从2017年下半年的5070元左右上升至本月的5752元。而起薪超过一万元的应届生岗位占比则在2018年1月达到峰值后出现下降，2019年6月仅为8.7%（图8-1）。平均起薪提高的同时，高薪岗位供给低于两年前，2017年年末15%左右的应届生岗位起薪超过10000元的盛景未能再现。
一般情况下，应届生招聘需求在每年4-5月和岁末年初较为旺盛。然而2018年4-5月的招聘数量明显低于2017年和2019年同期，并且在下半年呈现下滑趋势，未出现高点（图8-2），这与当年严峻的经济形势息息相关。2019年应届生招聘数量回升，在5月达到2017年以来的峰值，招聘形势有所好转。
本月，我们根据民营企业成立时间随机选取了三组（每组10万家）：2010年前成立的民营企业、2011-2015年间成立的民营企业、2016年之后成立的民营企业；另外，我们还选取了3000家左右已上市民营企业（在上海证券交易所、深圳证券交易所、全国中小企业股份转让系统上市）作为对照。我们发现这四组民营企业的招聘数量在近几年都经历了大幅度的下降和回升（图9-1）。从同比增速来看（图9-2），本月招聘数量增速从高到低依次为上市民营企业、2011-2015年间成立的民营企业、2010年前成立的民营企业、2016年后成立的民营企业。这说明民营企业的恢复主要从老牌企业开始，新企业虽然招聘数量较多，但衰退后的恢复速度不及老企业。
五、城市新经济排名
2019年6月新经济总量城市排名前20名如图10所示，北京、上海、深圳、广州和杭州排名前五。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。
图11计算了2018年12月到2019年6月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为北京、厦门、杭州、上海和济南。
图12计算了本月新经济城市综合成本指数调整后的新经济排名，前五名为北京、上海、成都、重庆和深圳，南京、杭州和东莞紧随其后。
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财新智库高级经济学家 王喆
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公关总监 马玲
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BBD（数联铭品）
BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家 陈沁
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电邮：chenqin@bbdservice.com
版权声明
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。
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June 2019 Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index
Overview
In June 2019, the Mastercard Caixin BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 30.0, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 30.0% of overall economic input activities that month, up 2.0 ppts from May (Chart 1). The rising NEI was due to the increase of capital input. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light, 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to our previous reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.
Primary Inputs
The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weights of the index, respectively. The rising in the June NEI reading came from the increase of capital input (Chart 2). Capital input fluctuated widely in the recent year, rebounding to 34.2 this month, with 5.1 MoM increase. Technology input index was on an uptrend since July 2018, coming in at 29.1 this month, with 0.8 MoM increase. Labor input index showed a stable trend in recent half year, remaining to 26.8 this month.
Taking the weights into account, percentage changes in labor, capital and technology inputs were 0.0, 1.8, and 0.2 ppts, respectively. The net NEI change was 2.0 ppts in total (Chart 3).
As for sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 8.4 ppts to NEI. Science Research and Hi-tech Services was the industry with fastest growth in June, contributing 5.2 ppts and ranking the second. Culture, Sports & Entertainment came forth from second, the biggest drop in ranking, contributing 4.2 ppts in June (Chart 4).
New Economy Employment
In June 2019, the average monthly entry-level salary of the New Economy was RMB 10,867, increasing from last month’s level of RMB 10,776 (Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as well as other sites that list job openings.
The ratio of hiring in the New Economy sectors to that in total dropped by 0.03%. At the same time, the compensation share of New Economy increased by 0.04%. Accordingly, the average entry salary level of New Economy increased compared to the whole economy. The entry-level salary premium of the New Economy increased to 5.3% as compared to economy-wide counterparts (Chart 6).
Economic Recovery Based on Employment Data
This month, we focused on the changes of labor demand on directorates, jobs for fresh graduate, and employment of private enterprises.
Now in China it’s the season of national college entrance examination, the salary and demand for specific positions attracted more public attentions. We picked 25 positions related to “Director” and plotted the changes of labor demand in five years (Chart 7). In the past five years, the demands for Supply Chain Director, Strategic Development Director, and Graphic Design Director increased most. The positions with fastest decline in demand were Marketing Director, Financing Director, and Security Market Director, which coincided with the changes of market.
The jobs for fresh graduate changed significantly in the past two years. The average salary for fresh graduate showed an uptrend growth, rising from around 5,070 yuan in the second half of 2017 to 5,752 yuan this month. However, the proportion of jobs for fresh graduate with salary over 10,000 yuan showed an inverted U-shaped pattern (Chart 8-1). High paid jobs were less than two years ago, when salary of 10000 yuan plus was posted for around 15% of all positions.
For seasonal reason, jobs for fresh graduate reached the peak in April and May and at the end of the year. In contrast, jobs demand in April and May 2018 were significantly lower than that in the same period of 2017 and 2019, and showed a downward trend in the second half of 2018 as a result of economic recession (Chart 8-2). In 2019, jobs for fresh graduate rebounded, reaching the peak since 2017 in May, showing an upward employment trend.
We selected three groups of private enterprises, each of which with 100,000 firms, — enterprises established before 2010, enterprises established between 2011 and 2015, and enterprises established after 2016. In addition, we included around 3,000 private enterprises listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and National Equities Exchange and Quotations as the fourth group. We found similar cyclical patterns for all (Chart 9-1). In terms of YoY change (Chart 9-2), listed enterprises grew faster and more resilient. Although creating more jobs, the newly established enterprises recovered much more slowly than their listed counterparts after the recession.
City Rankings of the New Economy
Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities were shown in Chart 10. The top five cities were Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile ranks of indicators for the city in the past six months.
Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between December 2018 and June 2019. The top five cities were Beijing, Xiamen, Hangzhou, Shanghai and Jinan.
In addition, we showed the city rankings adjusted by living cost by taking housing price, minimum wage and disposable income per capita into account (Chart 12). After the adjustment, the top five cities were Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Chongqing and Shenzhen, following by Nanjing, Hangzhou and Dongguan.
For further information please contact:
Mastercard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Director, Communications
Tel：+86-10-8519-9304
Email：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com
Caixin Insight Group
Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist
Tel：+86-10-85905019
Emails：zhewang@caixin.com
Ma Ling, Public Relations
Tel：+86-10-8590-5204
Email：lingma@caixin.com
BBD
Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist
Tel：+86-28-65290823
Emails：chenqin@bbdservice.com
The Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.
About Caixin
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About Mastercard
Mastercard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. Mastercard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MastercardAP and @MastercardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.
About BBD (Business Big Data)
BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.
