【财新网】（记者 张娱）受资本投入下降影响，2018年12月万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）出现回落。
财新智库和BBD1月2日联合发布的数据显示，2018年12月NEI录得29.1，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为29.1%，低于11月2.2个百分点。
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。
从分项指标来看，资本投入回落是12月NEI出现下降的主因。资本投入指数近一年来波动较大，12月录得32.0，环比下降5.1个百分点；科技投入指数12月录得 27.6，环比下降1.7个百分点；劳动力投入指数近两个月趋于稳定，12月录得27.5，环比下降0.1个百分点。
从行业贡献度来看，新一代信息技术与信息服务产业对NEI占比最大，12月贡献了11.3个百分点；名次上升最快的是生物医药产业，从11月的第四名上升到第二名，贡献了4.2个百分点；名次下降最快的是金融和法律服务业，从11月的第二名下降到第七名，贡献了2个百分点。
12月新经济行业入职平均月工资为10286元，较11月上升74元；新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例与11月基本持平，总薪酬占比则下降0.1个百分点，意味着新经济行业平均入职工资水平相对于全国平均入职工资水平出现小幅下降。12月新经济入职工资“溢价”为2.8%，低于11月0.3个百分点，为新经济指数发布以来的新低。
从就业来看，多数行业近两年来持续负增长。其中，家具制造业、电信业是2018年为数不多的就业增长的行业，而房屋和土木建筑业、建筑装饰业等房地产相关行业就业则持续下降；从工资来看，服务性行业和房地产、物流等行业出现一定分化：商业服务业、保险业等行业2018年工资由降转升；而房屋和土木工程建筑业、装卸搬运和其他运输服务业2018年工资则出现了下降。
从2016年成立的新企业和2013年之前成立的老企业来看，新企业就业增长在2018年遭遇困境，报告称，新企业较老企业更脆弱，更易遭受冲击。不过新企业表现出更强的发展活力和更广阔的市场前景。为数不多的就业连续两年增长的企业，均为新企业，2018年工资增幅也更高。
汽车制造业、通用设备制造业、纺织服装服饰业等产业2018年招聘的销售人员与生产人员之比有所增长。报告认为，这与贸易战前期抢生产、后期去库存的企业策略不无关系。
按地区来看，2018年6月到12月，北京、南京、广州、上海和杭州在城市NEI排名中排行前五。
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库、成都数联铭品科技公司与北京大学国家发展研究院合作研发，每月2日上午10：00发布上月数据。
新经济指数旨在度量中国经济转型中新经济相对于传统经济或旧经济的活跃程度。新经济指数覆盖了节能与环保业、新一代信息技术与信息服务产业、生物医药产业、高端装备制造产业、新能源产业、新材料产业、新能源汽车产业、高新技术服务与研发业、金融服务与法律服务、体育文化和娱乐等10个类别，超过140个行业。
2018年12月
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数
一、指数概览
2018年12月，万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数（NEI）录得29.1，即新经济投入占整个经济投入的比重为29.1%。2017年以来，NEI指数波动较大，按可比口径计算，本月NEI比上月下降2.2个百分点（图1）。本月NEI的下降主要来自资本投入的下降。
NEI新经济据于以下定义：首先，高人力资本投入、高科技投入、轻资产；其次，可持续的较快增长；第三，符合产业发展方向。NEI所含行业详见《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数技术报告》与《万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数报告（2017年3月）》。
二、主要分项指标
NEI包括劳动力、资本和科技三项一级指标，它们在NEI中的权重分别是40%、35%和25%。2018年12月NEI的下降主要来自资本投入的下降。资本投入指数近一年来波动较大，本月指数录得32.0，环比下降5.1。科技投入指数本月指数录得27.6，环比下降1.7。劳动力投入指数近两月趋于稳定，本月指数录得27.5，环比下降0.1（图2）。
劳动力、资本和科技投入的变化百分比分别为0.0，-1.8，和-0.4个百分点，与权重相乘求和后，对2018年12月NEI变化的贡献值为-2.2%（图3）。
分行业看，NEI中占比最大的行业为新一代信息技术与信息服务产业，2018年12月为总指数贡献了11.3个百分点；本月名次上升最快的是生物医药产业，从上月的第四名上升到本月的第二名，为总指数贡献了4.2个百分点；本月名次下降最快的是金融和法律服务业，从上月的第二名下降到本月的第七名，为总指数贡献了2.0个百分点（图4）。
三、新经济就业
2018年12月，新经济行业入职平均工资水平环比上升，为每月10286元，较上月上升74元（图5）。新经济工资主要来自51job、智联招聘、拉钩、赶集网等数个招聘网站的招聘信息，即对劳动力的需求工资。
2018年12月新经济行业招聘人数占全国总招聘人数比例与上月基本持平，为27.1%，同时新经济行业招聘总薪酬占全国总薪酬比重下降0.1%，这意味着新经济行业的平均入职工资水平相对全国平均入职工资水平小幅下降。2018年12月新经济入职工资“溢价”为2.8%，不仅低于上月的3.1%（图6），也创下新经济指数发布以来的新低。
四、从劳动力需求数据看经济走势
本月我们对不同行业的就业和工资增长趋势进行分析。我们使用2013年全国经济普查企业名录，按行业对比其2016 – 2018年间就业和工资数据的变化。图7-1和图7-2的横轴分别是各行业前一年的就业、工资增长率，纵轴分别是当年的就业、工资增长率，蓝色点和黄色点分别代表2018年和2017年。第一象限的点属于连续两年都增长的行业，第三象限的点属于两年都下降的行业，第二和第四象限分别代表前一年下降当年上升、以及前一年上升当年下降的行业。当行业点从第三或第四象限向第二象限移动的时候（蓝色点相对于黄色点的位置变化），说明这个行业在好转，反之则说明这个行业的发展趋势在恶化。
从就业增长率来看（图7-1），家具制造业、电信业是为数不多在2018年取得增长的行业，而房屋和土木建筑业、建筑装饰业等房地产相关行业则持续下降。整体而言，蓝色点多集中于第三象限，表明多数行业近两年来持续负增长。
从工资增长率来看（图7-2），商业服务业、保险业等行业2018年增长率由负转正，而房屋和土木工程建筑业、装卸搬运和其他运输服务业在2018年出现了下降。总体看，服务性行业和房地产、物流等行业在工资变化方面出现一定分化。
在图8-1和8-2中，我们总结了2016年成立的企业（新企业）在2017–2018年的发展情况，并和2013年之前成立的企业（老企业）进行了对比。我们发现新企业就业增长率多集中于第四象限，意味这些企业成立后实现了显著增长但在2018年遭遇困境。显然，在2018年经济整体下行压力较明显的背景下，新企业较老企业更脆弱，更易遭受冲击。
同时，新企业也展现出更强的发展活力和更广阔的市场前景，行业内部新老企业的更新替代也正在发生。就业增长率的第一象限中，为数不多的企业均为新企业，其2018年工资增幅也更高：部分新企业在2017年和2018年的发展势头迅猛。其中，建筑安装业和房地产业的新企业就业岗位在2017年的上升幅度更高、在2018年的下跌幅度更低。并且，这两个行业的新企业在2018年的工资增长率均是各自行业旧企业的4倍以上。
此外，我们从销售人员和生产人员的招聘对比来看各行业的库存压力变化（图9）。我们计算每月不同行业招聘的销售人员和生产人员比例，并将这个比例以2018年1月为基准进行对数化处理。该数值正向偏离0的幅度越大，意味着销售类岗位相对于生产性岗位的需求增长更快，去库存压力则更大。数据显示，汽车制造业、通用设备制造业、纺织服装服饰业等产业去库存压力相对较大，其中纺织服装服饰业今年销售人员与生产人员之比大幅增长，去库存压力最大，这与贸易战前期抢生产、后期去库存的企业策略不无关系。
五、城市新经济排名
2018年12月新经济总量指数城市排名前20名如图10所示，北京、上海、深圳、广州和南京排名前五。该排序计算每个投入指标在所有城市中的排序百分位，再将百分位加权平均，体现的是近半年城市间新经济总量排名。
图11计算了2018年6月到2018年12月城市NEI平均排名，前五名为北京、南京、广州、上海、杭州。
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财新智库
财新智库高级经济学家 王喆
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公关总监 马玲
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电邮：lingma@caixin.com
BBD（数联铭品）
BBD（数联铭品）首席经济学家 陈沁
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电邮：chenqin@bbdservice.com
版权声明
万事达卡财新BBD中国新经济指数，是由财新智库（深圳）投资发展有限公司和成都数联铭品科技公司共同研发，与北京大学国家发展研究院合作，经过近一年努力，于2016年3月2日在北京首发的指数产品，此后每月2日上午10:00发布上月数据。
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December 2018
Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index
Overview
In December 2018, the Mastercard Caixin BBD New Economy Index (NEI) reading came in at 29.1, indicating that the New Economy accounted for 29.1% of overall economic input activities that month, down 2.2 ppts from November(Chart 1). The declining NEI was due to the decrease of capital input. New economy is defined as following: 1) human capital intensive, technology intensive and capital light, 2) sustainable rapid growth, and 3) in line with the strategic new industries defined by the government. Please refer to ourprevious reports (March 2016 and March 2017) for the list of NEI sectors.
Primary Inputs
The NEI includes labor, capital and technology inputs that account for 40%, 35% and 25% of the total weights of the index,respectively. The declining in the December NEI reading came from the decrease of capital input (Chart 2). Capital input fluctuated widely in the recent year,dropping to 32.0 this month, with 5.1 MoM decrease. Technology input index camein at 27.6 this month, with 1.7 MoM decrease. Labor input index showed a stable trend, decreasing slightly to 27.5 this month, with 0.1 MoM decrease.
Taking the weights into account, percentage changes inlabor, capital and technology inputs were 0.0, -1.8, and -0.4 ppts, respectively.The net NEI change was -2.2 ppts in total (Chart 3).
As for sectors, the New IT industry formed the largest proportion of the New Economy Index, contributing 11.3 ppts to NEI. Biotech was the industry with fastest growth in December, contributing 4.2 ppts and ranking the second. Finance & Legal Services came seventh from second, the fastest drop in ranking, contributing 2.0 ppts in December (Chart 4).
New Economy Employment
In December 2018, the average monthly entry-level salary of the New Economy was RMB 10,286, increasing from last month’s level of RMB 10,212(Chart 5). New Economy wage information is compiled from online websites of career platforms and recruitment services including 51job and Zhaopin, as wellas other sites that list job openings.
Hiring in the New Economy sectors remained the same as the previous month’s 27.1%. At the same time, the compensation share of New Economy decreased by 0.1%. Accordingly, the average entry salary level of New Economy declined slightly compared to the whole economy. The entry-level salary premium of the New Economy decreased from 3.1% in November to 2.8% as compared toeconomy-wide counterparts (Chart 6), hitting the lowest ever since the index was published.
Economic Trends Based on Employment Data
This month, we checked, by industry, the growth rate of employment and average salary from 2016 to 2018 of enterprises registered in the Third National Economic Census in 2013. In Chart 7-1 and 7-2, the horizontal axes and vertical axes were the growth rates in previous year and current year respectively, and the blue and yellow points denoted growth rates in 2018 and 2017 respectively. The industry in the first quadrant grow for two consecutive years, the industry in third quadrant declined for two years, and the industries locating in the second or fourth quadrant experienced a U-shapeor reversed U-shape change respectively. When more points move from the third or fourth quadrant to the second one, more industries make improvements, and vice versa.
For employment (Chart 7-1), Furniture Manufacturing and Telecom& Other Information Transmission Service were the few industries creatingmore jobs in 2018, while Building and Civil Engineering, Fitting &Decoration and other real estate related industries declined. As a whole, bluepoints concentrated in the third quadrant, which meant most industries experienced deterioration in the past two years.
Meanwhile, the average salary of Business Service and Insurance increased in 2018 after a decrease in 2017, while that of Building and Civil Engineering, Loading, Unloading, Carrying and Other TransportServices sectors kept declining (Chart 7-2). We observed divergence in service industry and real estate & logistic industries in salary growth.
In Chart 8-1 and 8-2, Statistics of new enterprises(established in 2016) were compared to that of their elder counterparts(established before 2013). Most of the new enterprises were in the fourth quadrant, who showed significant growth in 2017 but had a tough time in the following year. It was the new enterprises, other than old ones, who were more vulnerable in recessions.
At the same time, the new enterprises were more energetic in taking place of the old ones in some industries. The few industries in the first quadrant of Chart 8-1 were the new enterprises, who expanded rapidly in the past two years and had higher growth rates of average salaries in 2018(Chart 8-2). The employment of new enterprises in Lines & Equipment Installation and Real Estate rose faster in 2017 and dropped slower in 2018. Meanwhile,average salaries of new enterprises in Lines & Equipment Installation and Real Estate increased more than four times as much as their counterparts.
Moreover, we explored the employment of salesmen and production workers to check the destocking pressure in various industries(Chart 9). We took logarithm of the ratio of salesmen to production workers indifferent industries (January 2018 as basic period) and took it as a measurement of destocking. A higher positive value indicated a higher ratio of salesmen to production workers, which meant higher pressure of destocking. The data showed that the sub-sectors with relatively higher destocking pressures were Automobile Manufacturing, General Equipment, and Garment & Apparel. Among theseindustries, Garment & Apparel experienced a very rapid rise in the employment of salesmen and faced highest destocking pressure as a result of produce-first-sell-second strategy in response to trade sanctions.
City Rankings of the New Economy
Based on overall New Economy rankings, the top twenty cities were shown in Chart 10. The top five cities were Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen,Guangzhou and Nanjing. Rankings are based on a weighted average of the percentile rank of indicators for the city in the past six months.
Chart 11 showed the average NEI city rankings between June 2018 and December 2018. The top five cities were Beijing, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Shanghaiand Hangzhou.
For further information please contact:
Mastercard
Mr. Wu Huanyu, Director, Communications
Tel：+86-10-8519-9304
Email：Huanyu_wu@mastercard.com
Caixin Insight Group
Dr. Wang Zhe, Senior Economist
Tel：+86-10-85905019
Emails：zhewang@caixin.com
Ma Ling, Public Relations
Tel：+86-10-8590-5204
Email：lingma@caixin.com
BBD
Dr. Chen Qin, Chief Economist
Tel：+86-28-65290823
Emails：chenqin@bbdservice.com
The Mastercard Caixin BBD China New Economy Index is the fruit of a research partnership between Caixin Insight Group and BBD, in collaboration with the National Development School, Peking University. The subject of a year of research, the NEI was first publically released on March 2, 2016 and will be issued the 2nd of every month at 10:00am China Standard Time.
About Caixin
Caixin Media is China's leading media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile applications, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin Media aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms. Caixin Insight Group is a high-end financial data and analysis platform. For more information, please visit www.caixin.com.
About Mastercard
Mastercard (NYSE: MA), www.mastercard.com, is a technology company in the global payments industry. We operate the world’s fastest payments processing network, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments and businesses in more than 210 countries and territories. Mastercard’s products and solutions make everyday commerce activities – such as shopping, traveling, running a business and managing finances – easier, more secure and more efficient for everyone. Follow us on Twitter @MastercardAP and @MastercardNews, join the discussion on the Beyond the Transaction Blog and subscribe for the latest news on the Engagement Bureau.
About BBD (Business Big Data)
BBD is a leading Big Data and quantitative business analytics firm specializing in the analysis of the high-growth industries emerging in Mainland China. Through dynamic data tracking, credit analysis, risk pricing and economic index construction, BBD provides its clients with a wide range of services at both the macro and micro level. For more information, please visit http://www.bbdservice.com/.
