Geely or Xiaomi: Who’s the More Serious Threat to BYD?

From the direct-competition perspective, Geely did inflict significant pressure on BYD in 2025. However, from the existing user’s perspective, Geely itself is also exposed to major risks – particularly from BYD. In 2025, fewer than 2% of BYD’s existing users intended to switch to Geely, while nearly 15% of Geely’s existing users intended to switch to BYD – far ahead of all other brands, making BYD the top contender for Geely’s user base. Rather than viewing the Galaxy M9, introduced by Geely at the end of 2025, as an offensive move, it is more accurate to describe it as a defensive strategy. If, in 2026, BYD’s Sealion 09, Sealion 08, Da Tang and other large energy-efficient models – after fully absorbing the lessons of the Xia and Tang L in 2025 – adopt the “EV priced below ICE vehicle” aggressive pricing approach and move below the RMB200,000 level, they will likely place enormous pressure on the Galaxy M9’s defensive position. Such a move would also strongly draw away Geely’s existing users, relieve Geely’s broader strategic pressure, and deter opportunistic challengers such as LeapMotor. Ultimately, it would support BYD in shifting its overall price positioning upward and help it avoid a direct clash with used cars;

As a straightforward inference from the logic that “retaining one’s own users enables the capture of others,” if BYD can retain its existing users during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will be able to create new growth space in China’s car market.

During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, beyond pushing the premiumization of their core brands, both BYD and Geely will also work to consolidate the premiumization outcomes of their sub-brands – such as Fang Cheng Bao, Denza, Yang Wang, LYNK & CO and ZEEKR. During this process, the competitive overlap between BYD, Geely and emerging high-end brands like Xiaomi will become increasingly pronounced. As their offerings become less differentiated, the market will inevitably enter a phase of large-scale elimination.