墨比索汇率创年内新高 The Mexican peso hits its strongest level of the year

2025

NEWS TODAY!

在美元走软及新兴市场资产需求上升的推动下，墨西哥比索提前收获"圣诞红利"，汇率攀升至17个月以来最高点。

The Mexican peso got an early Christmas bonus, reaching its best level in 17 months, boosted by a retreat of the dollar and a greater appetite for emerging market assets.

根据墨西哥央行数据显示，比索兑美元汇率上涨0.25%，周四收盘时报1美元兑18.23比索，创下自2024年7月23日（当日汇率为18.17）以来最佳水平。截至墨西哥城时间周五上午11时30分，比索汇率已进一步走强至18.19。

According to data from Mexico’s central bank (Banxico), the currency appreciated 0.25% against the greenback, closing on Thursday at 18.23 units per U.S. dollar, a level not seen since July 23, 2024, when it traded at 18.17. The peso had strengthened to 18.19 to the U.S. dollar by 11:30 a.m. Friday, Mexico City time.

墨西哥央行数据显示，周四批发市场汇率在18.2570至18.2250区间波动。Banco Base分析团队指出，墨西哥比索在周四交易中成为全球第三大表现最佳的货币。《金融报》报道称，市场对美联储12月9日至10日货币政策会议的预期是推动比索走强的重要因素。

According to data from Banxico, the exchange rate traded Thursday between a high of 18.2570 and a low of 18.2250 in the wholesale market. The Banco Base analysis team reported that the Mexican peso was the third-best performing currency in Thursday’s session. The newspaper El Financiero reported that expectations about the next U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting — scheduled for Dec. 9-10 — contributed to the peso’s performance. 

分析师预测美联储将在下周下调关键利率以提振疲软的就业市场，这引发市场对降息可能刺激通胀的担忧。《经济学家报》指出，美元走软还因为交易员正在评估美国个人消费支出价格指数数据——该指数环比上涨0.3%符合预期，是美联储青睐的通胀指标。

Analysts have projected that the Fed will cut its key interest rate next week in hopes of boosting the faltering U.S. job market, raising concerns that lower borrowing costs could stoke inflation. The newspaper El Economista reported that the dollar’s decline comes as traders assess data from the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation benchmark, which rose 0.3% in line with expectations.

金融市场预计美联储有87%的可能性将降息25个基点，这将是其连续第三次会议实施降息。IMB Capital Qants首席执行官费利佩·门多萨向《金融报》表示："尽管面临全球波动和地缘政治杂音，但凭借可观的利差收益、美联储降息预期以及国内金融稳定等因素，比索仍保持结构性支撑。"

Financial markets were said to be pricing in an 87% chance the Fed would reduce its key interest rate by a quarter-point, which would be its third rate cut in as many meetings. Felipe Mendoza, CEO of IMB Capital Qants, told El Financiero that the appreciation of Mexico’s currency on Thursday indicates that “despite global volatility and geopolitical noise, the structural support of the peso remains in place thanks to an attractive carry, the expectation of a Fed cut … and domestic financial stability.”

所谓"可观的利差收益"指投资者持有高息资产（如债券或货币）时，随时间推移可获得相对于成本而言较高且稳定的收益流。2025年迄今，墨西哥比索兑美元已累计升值12.7%，但分析师已将目光投向2026年——美联储主席鲍威尔将于当年5月卸任。

An “attractive carry” refers to an investment (like a bond or currency) that offers a high, steady income stream (also referred to as “the carry”) relative to its cost, allowing investors to profit just from holding the asset as time passes. The Mexican peso has appreciated 12.7% against the U.S. dollar so far in 2025, but analysts are already turning their attention to 2026 when Fed chairman Jerome Powell will step down in May.