大数跨境

波司登:轻薄羽绒行业革新,旺季销售羽众不同

波司登:轻薄羽绒行业革新,旺季销售羽众不同 天风国际
2022-10-03
43
导读:天风国际坚定深度研究,A股精品投研扬帆海外。

Bosideng International 

(3998 HK)


轻薄羽绒行业革新,旺季销售羽众不同

Innovative thin-and-light down apparel leader anticipates autumn-winter peak season sales

BUY (maintain) 


投资要点/Investment Thesis

投资要点/Investment Thesis

官宣新代言人强化品牌认知,发布大秀重新定义轻薄羽绒

9月20日,公司官宣品牌代言人谷爱凌,其形象契合波司登突破创新的品牌文化理念,有助于建立打破传统、探索多元、行业专家的品牌认知,带来全新风格演绎。9月21日,波司登举办“重新定义轻薄羽绒服”主题大秀,杨颖、郑秀妍、朱洁静、金大川等明星艺人助阵,《Vogue》、《ELLE》时尚大刊站台,见证行业创新突破。


Eileen Gu raises brand profile as launch event showcased ultralight down jackets 

Bosideng introduced Eileen Gu as its new brand ambassador this week. The Olympic skier’s image fits the brand’s breakthrough and diversity theme, incorporating new style interpretations based on specialist know-how. Its 21 Sept launch event, Ultralight: redefining the down jacket, featured artistes like Angelababy, Jessica Jung, Zhu Jiejing and Jin Dachuan and was covered by Vogue and Elle magazines.


五大轻暖科技+三大设计创新,再次革新传统

轻薄羽绒继去年风衣羽绒以来,再次跨界打破羽绒服传统定式,将卫衣、针织等单品与羽绒结合,融合创新保温面料、超轻裸肤面料、奢侈品级优质鹅绒、德国防绒针技术、智能防寒工艺5大轻暖科技,尝试将百年时尚单品、创新羽绒拼接、艺术化绗线设计等纳入对轻薄羽绒服的设计创新。专业与时尚并举,带来又一次行业革新。


Tech genre breakers: five lightweight-warmth and three design innovations

After Bosideng launched its down windbreaker last year, it once again reinterprets the thin-and-light down jacket with a new twist. Its new ultralight down sweater-cum-cardigan combines five lightweight-warmth technologies: innovative insulation fabrics, barely-there fabrics, luxury-grade goose down, the use of German down-proof needles to stitch, and smart anti-chill technology. Add to these three design innovations: centuries-old fashion motifs, innovative down stitching and artistic quilting. Professionalism and fashion have gone hand in hand to birth another industry breakthrough. 


我们认为,第一、丰富羽绒服穿着场景,平滑冷暖冬销售落差。

轻薄羽绒销售穿着场景更丰富,可贯穿秋、冬、春三季,有助于延长羽绒服销售周期,平滑冷暖冬销售落差带来的不确定性。伴随秋季来临,将提前开启羽绒服销售季节,旺季动销表现可期。


Here are our takeaways on the latest product series:

(1) Enrich down jacket scenarios and narrow the severe and mild winter sales gap

Sales: thin-and-light down jackets face an abundance of wearing scenarios, spanning the three seasons of autumn, winter and spring, and could help extend the sales cycle of down jackets and narrow the gap in sales between severe and mild winters. With autumn setting in, the down jacket sales season would begin early, so we expect a good sales performance in the upcoming peak season. 


第二、价格带下沉面向大众,有望获得更高销量转化。

轻薄羽绒服主力产品价格带在1000-1500元,与彰显品牌技术实力的登峰系列(10000元+)、高端的户外系列(约3000-5000元)、极寒系列(约1500-3000元)等形成价格梯队,面向大众消费群体,有望获得更高关注度与销量转化。


(2) Narrowing consumer price range: we expect sales conversion at higher end

The main thin-and-light down jackets are priced at RMB1,000-1,500, in stark contrast to the Mountaineering series (over RMB10,000), the high-end outdoor series (about RMB3,000-5,000), and the extreme-cold series (about RMB 1,500-3,000). The products target the mass consumer, so we expect higher acceptance and sales conversion.


全球首家体验店开业在即,发力加盟渠道布局潜力市场

波司登全球首家体验店预计10月在上海南京西路正式开业,该门店并非强生意导向,而是致力于强化与消费者的互动以提供更好品牌体验,探究新模式构建实现品牌再升级;发力加盟市场,优化调整加盟政策、品质及门店管理,加大对加盟商支持力度。


First experience store in the world in October and franchise channel restructure 

Bosideng’s first global experience store is slated to open officially on Nanjing West Road in Shanghai in October. The store concept is not strongly business-oriented but is rather aimed at consumer interaction to instill a better brand experience and help develop new models for upgrades. This helps the company’s optimize market development, franchise policies, quality and store management, so that it can better support franchisees.



投资建议/Investment Ideas


维持盈利预测,维持买入评级。

波司登持续夯实“品牌引领、产品领先、渠道升级、优质快反”核心竞争力,品牌韧度运营深度对应环境变化。夏季防晒服系列,有效填补传统淡季销售,此次新代言人和新品共振,有望强力带动秋冬旺季销售。我们预计公司FY23-25收入分别为189.8、222.3、259.7亿人民币,归母净利分别为24.7、29.7、35.6亿人民币,对应EPS分别为0.23、0.27、0.32元人民币/股,PE分别为15.2x、12.6x、10.6x。


Valuation and risks

Bosideng continues to consolidate its core competencies - brand and product leadership, channel upgrades, quick quality responses - while adapting its brand operations to macro changes. Its sunscreen summer apparel series has helped drive sales in the typical low season and we expect its new spokesperson and products to boost sales during the peak autumn-winter season. We forecast the company’s FY23/24/25E (YE March) revenue will arrive at RMB18.98bn/22.23bn/25.97bn, with net profit at RMB2.47bn/2.97bn/3.56bn, corresponding to RMB0.23/0.27/0.32 EPS and 15.2/12.6/10.6x PE. We have maintained our earnings forecast and BUY rating.


风险提示:疫情反复影响线下客流;新品市场反响不及预期;品牌转型效果不及预期;原材料价格波动公司销售成本难以控制等风险。


Risks include: pandemic resurgence affecting customer footfall; weaker market response to new products than expected; less effective brand revamp than expected; and raw material price volatility affecting sales cost control.

Email: equity@tfisec.com

TFI research report website: 

(pls scan the QR code)



或资料可能得自第三方,天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性,但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及/或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性,以及任何该等预测及/或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容,此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证,且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据,亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前,应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果,并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标,以及能否承担有关风险,必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意,证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌,过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家,传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。

阅读原文 立即开户



【声明】内容源于网络
0
0
天风国际
天风国际是天风证券境外全资子公司,立志于成为全球资产配置专家,用我们的专业专注力连接中外,为海内外客户寻找最优质资产和提供最专业的投资咨询。
内容 3453
粉丝 0
天风国际 天风国际是天风证券境外全资子公司,立志于成为全球资产配置专家,用我们的专业专注力连接中外,为海内外客户寻找最优质资产和提供最专业的投资咨询。
总阅读12.4k
粉丝0
内容3.5k