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華利集團:新開工廠加速爬坡

華利集團:新開工廠加速爬坡 天风国际
2025-11-26
8
导读:天風國際堅定深度研究,A股精品投研揚帆海外。

華利集團

Huali Industrial Group

(300979 CH)


新開工廠加速爬坡

25Q3E results takeaways: revenue flat and profit down on new facility ramp-ups; more new factories planned

買入(維持評級)

BUY (maintain)

投資要點/Investment Thesis

投資要點/Investment Thesis

公司發佈三季報

公司25Q3營收60億,同比-0.3%,歸母凈利7.6億,同比-21%,扣非后歸母凈利8.2億,同比-15%。


公司25Q1-3營收187億,同比+7%,歸母凈利24億,同比-14%,扣非后歸母凈利25億,同比-11%。


2025Q1-3公司銷售運動鞋1.68億雙,同比增長3.04%。

今年以來,由於較多新工廠處於爬坡階段以及產能調配安排,公司整體毛利率較去年同期有所下滑。25Q3公司持續推進上半年確定的主要工作,重點關注新工廠的運營改善和各工廠的降本增效措施的落實,2024年投產的4家運動鞋量產工廠,當前已經有3家工廠達成階段性考核目標(內部核算口徑實現盈利),其中包括公司在印尼開設的第一家工廠印尼世川。 目前公司降本增效措施正有序推進,同時新工廠的運營也在逐步成熟,公司管理層和各部門每個月都會對工廠的運營效率進行檢討,針對性地解決問題。


未來3-5年,公司主要將在印尼新建工廠並儘快投產。公司的產能除了通過新建工廠、設備更新提升產能外,還可以通過員工人數和加班時間的控制保持一定的彈性,每年具體的產能的配置將根據當年訂單情況進行調整。


積極溝通應對關稅變化

美國是運動鞋重要的消費市場,美國進口關稅稅率上調,會增加客戶銷往美國市場的關稅成本,但是客戶銷往非美國地區的關稅不會有影響。以往關稅都是由品牌客戶(進口商)承擔,關稅成本最終會傳導至消費者。


訂單狀況對品牌、製造商、材料商等整個產業鏈都會有影響。品牌客戶、製造商和材料商會共同探討關稅帶來的成本問題,比如可以從原材料採購、製造工藝等多環節、多維度探討成本費用的優化方案。成本和費用控制一直是公司運營中非常關注的問題,公司將密切關注關稅政策動態,並與客戶、供應商保持緊密溝通。


The ramp-up measures at the new factories to raise efficiencies and reduce costs are going smoothly as planned. Huali’s confidence in their viability translates into plans to set up more factories in Indonesia over the next 5 years, accelerating its global capacity buildout. We maintain our BUY call.


The gist: BUY

  • 25Q1–3E revenue up 7% yoy, net profit down 14% yoy on flat Q3 revenue

  • Production ramp-ups in Q1–3 led to flat growth in sports shoe sales

  • Tariff impact: Huali engages with all partners in exploring best cost solutions


25Q1–3E revenue up 7% yoy, net profit down 14% yoy on flat Q3 revenue

Huali Industrial released unaudited 25Q3E financial results on 30 Oct:

  • Q3E revenue arrived at RMB6.0bn, down 0.3% yoy; with net profit at RMB765m, down 21% yoy; and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB816m, down 15% yoy.

  • Q1–3E revenue amounted to RMB18.7bn, up 7% yoy; net profit at RMB2.4bn, down 14% yoy; and ex-nonrecurring net profit at RMB2.5bn, down 11% yoy.


Production ramp-ups in Q1–3 led to flat growth in sports shoe sales

Startup measures: Huali sold 168m pairs of sports shoes in the first 9 months of 2025, 3.04% more yoy. Several new factories were ramping up and necessitated capacity allocation arrangements, which dampened total gross margin yoy during this adjustment period. In Q3, Huali continued with the major tasks it had outlined in H1, focusing on operational improvements at the new factories, and implementing cost reduction measures and efficiency upgrades across all facilities. Of the four sports shoe factories that started operating in 2024, three—including Adonia Footwear, Huali’s first Indonesian factory—have met their phased assessment targets, which are profitability goals set to internal accounting standards. The cost and efficiency measures are going well as operations fall into place at the new facilities. Management and the relevant departments conduct efficiency reviews monthly to address issues proactively.


More new factories: Over the next 3–5 years, Huali plans to focus on setting up more factories in Indonesia and accelerate their production ramp-up. Beyond expanding capacity through new facilities and equipment upgrades, the company would continue to ensure operational flexibility by managing workforce size and overtime hours. It would adjust production capacity allocations based on the year’s order volumes.


US tariff impact: Huali engages with all partners in exploring best cost solutions

Tariff impact: As the US is a major consumer market for sports shoes, higher US import tariffs raise tariff costs for Huali’s customers selling to the US market, although it does not affect its customers selling to non-US regions. Previously, tariffs have been borne by brand customers (as importers), with costs passed through to the end-consumers.


Cost cooperation: Order-related factors impact the entire supply chain, including the brands, manufacturers, and material suppliers. Hence, brand customers, manufacturers, and material suppliers would discuss the tariff-related cost issues and explore multiple perspectives to find cost optimization solutions, including raw material procurements and manufacturing processes. And as cost and expense management is a key construct of Huali’s operations, the company monitors tariff policy developments and maintain close communications with its customers and suppliers.


投資建議/Investment Ideas


調整盈利預測,維持買入評級

考慮新投產工廠產能爬坡,我們調整 25-27 年盈利預測,預計 25-27 年營收為258億元、287 億元、325 億元(前值為263 億元、288 億元、319 億元); 歸母凈利為35億元、41億元、47億元(前值為40 億元、44 億元、47 億元); 對應 PE 為 20/17/14x。


Valuation and risks

Considering the ramp-up of production capacity at Huali’s newly commissioned production facilities, we fine-tuned our revenue forecast to RMB25.8bn/28.7bn/32.5bn for 2025/26/27E (from RMB26.3bn/28.8bn/31.9bn) and net profit forecast to RMB3.5bn/ 4.1bn/4.7bn (from RMB4bn/4.4bn/4.7bn); which correspond to 20x/17x/14x PE. We maintain our BUY rating.


風險提示:消費疲軟的風險,老客表現不及預期,工廠爬坡節奏不及預期等。


Risks include: weaker-than-expected consumer spending; lower-than-expected profits by Huali’s current customers; and a slower-than-expected ramp-up of its factories.



Email: research@tfisec.com

TFI research report website: 

(pls scan the QR code)

文件由天風國際證券集團有限公司天風國際證券與期貨有限公司(證監會中央編號:BAV573)及天風國際資產管理有限公司(證監會中央編號:ASF056)(合稱“天風國際集團”)編制,所載資料可能以若干假設為基礎,僅供作非商業用途及參考之用途,會因經濟、市場及其他情況而隨時更改而毋須另行通知。任何媒體、網站或個人未經授權不得轉載、連結、轉貼或以其他方式複製發表本檔及任何內容。已獲授權者,在使用本檔或任何內容時必須注明稿件來源於天風國際集團,並承諾遵守相關法例及一切使用的國際慣例,不為任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本檔,違者將依法追究相關法律責任。本檔所引用之資料或資料可能得自協力廠商,天風國際集團將盡可能確認資料來源之可靠性,但天風國際集團並不對協力廠商所提供資料或資料之準確性負責。且天風國際集團不會就本檔所載任何資料、預測及/或意見的公平性、準確性、時限性、完整性或正確性,以及任何該等預測及/或意見所依據的基準作出任何明文或暗示的保證、陳述、擔保或承諾而負責或承擔任何法律責任。本檔中如有類似前瞻性陳述之內容,此等內容或陳述不得視為對任何將來表現之保證,且應注意實際情況或發展可能與該等陳述有重大落差。本檔並非及不應被視為邀約、招攬、邀請、建議買賣任何投資產品或投資決策之依據,亦不應被詮釋為專業意見。閱覽本文件的人士或在作出任何投資決策前,應完全瞭解其風險以及有關法律、賦稅及會計的特點及後果,並根據個人的情況決定投資是否切合個人的投資目標,以及能否承擔有關風險,必要時應尋求適當的專業意見。投資涉及風險。敬請投資者注意,證券及投資的價值可升亦可跌,過往的表現不一定可以預示日後的表現。在若干國家,傳閱及分派本檔的方式可能受法律或規例所限制。獲取本檔的人士須知悉及遵守該等限制。


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