九興控股：運動類及新客戶需求拉動增長

公司發佈25Q3業績公告

25Q3公司營收同比+3.7%至4.0億美金，其中製造營收同比+3.6%至3.9億美金，出貨量同比+7.8%達1390萬雙，ASP同比-3.8%至28.2美元。

出貨量增長主要受到運動類別及新客戶需求的推動及24年同期低基數的影響，由於一些客戶於2024年上半年提前出貨約100萬雙，造成去年同期收入及出貨量受到壓抑。 ASP下調由於運動類別平均售價較低。

25Q1-3公司實現營收同比+1.7%至11.8億美金，其中製造業務營收同比+1.6%至11.5億美金，出貨量累計同比+5.1%至4140萬雙，ASP同比-3.1%至27.7美元。

派息方面，公司承諾在2025年和2026年將維持約70%的派息率，並通過回購股份及支付特別股息的方式，每年向股東返還最多6000萬美元的額外現金。

海外產能建設穩步推進

為配合下一個三年規劃，公司計劃從2025年開始將總產能再擴充2000萬雙。 主要透過進一步提升在印尼梭羅市新工廠的產能、啟動運營孟加拉第二間工廠及加速在印尼為公司最大運動客戶建設專用工廠來實現。 目前公司在解決印尼及菲律賓擴充生產設施及提產方面進展穩健，預計新生產設施將在2026年下半年投產。

利潤率方面，由於印尼及菲律賓製造設施於2025年下半年將逐步改善效率，公司的盈利能力仍將受到限制。 隨著公司深化與主要美國客戶的合作以優化其生產運營並鞏固與彼此的長期戰略關係，下半年公司或將面臨短期利潤率壓力。

三年規劃有望順利達成

隨著公司的三年規劃（2023-2025）接近尾聲，公司有望在三年期間實現10%經營利潤率及除稅後利潤達低十數百分比複合年增長率的目標，此前公司已於二零二三年及二零二四年超額完成該等目標。

展望未來，公司持續改善產品類別組合，多元化及擴大客戶基礎，並優化製造基地佈局。 公司將繼續優化奢華及高端時尚類別與新運動類別客戶之間的產能調配。 由於公司將於下半年開始向時尚及運動類別的兩名新客戶出貨，預期非客戶專屬製造設施於下半年仍以接近飽和的狀況運營。 儘管當前市況存在不確定性，但由於公司持續贏得新客戶，市場對公司產品開發及產能的需求依然強勁。

公司亦堅定致力於將手袋及配飾製造業務打造成核心增長動力，目標是將其引入更多高端客戶群體。加速發展該業務將是下一個三年規劃（於二零二六年開始）的重點之一。公司近期已完成收購越南一家小型手袋及配飾工廠，並計劃利用該工廠的高端生產專長及經驗豐富的團隊，全面提升公司手袋及配飾製造業務的優質水平和生產效益。

Stella continues to gain new customers and build out production capacity: shipments grew 7.8% yoy in Q3 on sportswear and new customer orders, as demand remains strong for its product development and production business despite market uncertainties. We maintain our ACCUMULATE call.

The gist: ACCUMULATE

• 25Q3 business update: revenue up 3.7% yoy; higher volumes and lower ASPs

• H2E outlook: margins, product mix and production allocation considerations

• Next 3Y plan for 2026–28: 20m pairs production ramp-up; handbags buildout

25Q3 business update: revenue up 3.7% yoy; higher volumes and lower ASPs

Key Q3 metrics: Stella International Holdings released a third-quarter update on 16 Oct with revenue rising 3.7% yoy to USD404.2m, including USD391.6m from the manufacturing business, up 3.6% yoy. Shipments increased 7.8% yoy to 13.9m pairs of footwear, while ASP fell 3.8% yoy to USD28.2.

Key Q3 drivers: Shipment growth was mainly driven by sportswear demand and strong orders from new customers, as well as a low 24Q3 comparative base. Certain customers had about 1m pairs of footwear shipped ahead of schedule in 24H1, depressing subsequent 24Q3 revenue and shipment volumes. Meanwhile, the ASP decline in 25Q3 was mainly because the sportswear category has lower selling prices on average.

25Q1-3 perspectives: As a whole, revenue in the first three quarters ticked up 1.7% yoy to USD1.18bn, as the manufacturing business treaded a similar growth pace of 1.6% to contribute USD1.15bn. Shipment volume climbed 5.1% to 41.4m pairs, while ASP slipped 3.1% to USD27.7.

70% DPR: The company has committed to a dividend payout ratio of about 70% in 2025 and 2026, and to return up to USD60m in additional cash to shareholders each year through share repurchases and special dividends.

3Y plan on track: As Stella’s 3-year plan for 2023–25 draws to a close, it is on track to achieve the targets of a 10% operating profit margin and a low-teen after-tax profit CAGR, having exceeded the targets over 2023–24.

25H2E outlook: margins, product mix and production allocation considerations

Profitability: Profit margins in 25H2E will likely be constrained while efficiencies continue to improve at its manufacturing facilities in Indonesia and the Philippines. As the company establishes firmer collaboration with a major US customer and optimizes production operations to entrench the strategic long-term relationship, it might be looking at short-term profit margin pressure in H2E.

H2E agenda: Stella aims to keep improving the product category mix, diversify and expand the customer base, and optimize the buildout of its manufacturing facilities:

• The company will optimize production capacity allocations between luxury and premium fashion, and new sports categories.

• With shipments to commence to two new fashion and sports customers in H2E, Stella’s non-customer-specific manufacturing facilities would remain at near full capacity in the period.

• Customer acquisitions: Despite current market uncertainties, demand for Stella’s product development and production capacities remain strong, and it is continuing to gain new customers.

Next 3Y plan for 2026–28: 20m pairs production ramp-up; handbags buildout

Steady ramp-up: Stella began the buildout in 2025 to expand production capacity by 20m pairs of footwear for its next 3-year strategy plan for 2026–28. This would be achieved by raising capacity at the new factory in Surakarta, Indonesia, commence operation of a second factory in Bangladesh, and speed up the construction of a factory in Indonesia dedicated to its largest sportswear customer. The expansion of production facilities and capacities in Indonesia and the Philippines is progressing steadily, and Stella expects they will commence production in 26H2E.

Handbags: A key focus of the next 3-year plan for 2026–28 is to speed up the development of its handbag and accessories manufacturing business. Stella remains committed to developing it into a major growth driver, as the goal is to attract more high-end customer groups. Having recently completed the process to acquire a small handbag and accessories factory in Vietnam, the company plans to leverage the factory’s experienced team and high-end production expertise to comprehensively raise quality levels and production efficiencies in this new business.

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